Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Grand Forks, ND

August 12, 2015Beltrami County, Clearwater County, Polk County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 12, 2015, 5:13 PM CDT for Beltrami County, Clearwater County, Polk County, Minnesota. It was in force for 47 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 12, 2015, 5:13 PM CDT (22:13 UTC)
Expired: Aug 12, 2015, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 47 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Beltrami County, MN, Clearwater County, MN, Polk County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 134 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 12, 3:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	9 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 190 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 40 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -386 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1826 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 199 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 12, 2:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 12, 2:35 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT REMAIN WEAK (THIS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
CAP STILL IN PLACE). THIS ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER (WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPS COOLER)...BUT JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA MLCAPE HAS BECOME
STRONG. AS LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TOWARD 00Z WHEN THE CAP IS
WEAKEST...ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SFC BASED AND
STRENGTHEN. WILL EXPAND T+ INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS (WITH MAIN THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY). STILL
THINKING AN AREA OF STORMS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH (ISOLD TO
SCATTERED) WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT (AND POSSIBLY
HAIL) GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT (AS DISCUSSED IN THE LATEST SPC
SWOMCD).

WARM AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH 100F DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY. AFTER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM...FORCING SHOULD BE RATHER
WEAK AND NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAPPING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY...EXCEPT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNDER THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LONG
TERM MODELS BRING A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SFC LOW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GIVING REGION A CHANCE FOR STRONG
TSTMS IF FROPA TRANSITS DURING PEAK HEATING. SW FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE NW AS CANADIAN RIDGE SETS UP...KEEPING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MID WEEK...BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND VARIABLE BY TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO WRN ND. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE IN W CNTRL AND NW
MN...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT SPECIFIC SITES TO ADD
TS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CB ONLY IN TAFS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 12, 8:41 AM CDT, 8 hours 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
841 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-130930-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
841 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR A SHORT TIME
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JAM

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 12, 12:18 PM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1218 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     HAIL             10 SSE VALLEY CITY      46.79N 97.92W
08/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       BARNES             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0608 PM     HAIL             2 E PAGE                47.16N 97.53W
08/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       CASS               ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA.

0610 PM     HAIL             5 ESE ORISKA            46.90N 97.69W
08/07/2015  E2.50 INCH       BARNES             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0611 PM     HAIL             2 E FORT RANSOM         46.52N 97.89W
08/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       RANSOM             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL OCCURRERD FOR 2 TO 3
            MINUTES. REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA.

0620 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 46.92N 97.55W
08/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       CASS               ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0624 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW LISBON             46.49N 97.76W
08/07/2015  E80.00 MPH       RANSOM             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE 1500 TO 2000 POUND HAY BALES WERE ROLLED FOR
            SEVERAL HUNDRED YARDS ACROSS FIELDS...DITCHES AND
            TOWNSHIP ROADS. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0625 PM     HAIL             6 NW LISBON             46.50N 97.77W
08/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       RANSOM             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS OCCURRED FOR SEVERAL MINUTES.
            DRIFTS OF HAIL WERE PILED UP AGAINST THE SIDE OF A
            FARMSTEAD SHOP AND IN NEARBY DITCHES...AND WAS STILL
            MELTING THE FOLLOWING AFTERNOON.

0627 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NNW LISBON            46.53N 97.74W
08/07/2015  E90.00 MPH       RANSOM             ND   BROADCAST MEDIA

            A POLESHED ROOF WAS BLOWN OFF AND TUMBLED THROUGH THE
            FARMYARD. IT BROKE DOWN A POWER POLE AND POWER LINE
            BEFORE COMING TO REST PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN A FARMHOUSE
            ROOF.

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W ARTHUR              47.10N 97.26W
08/07/2015  E60.00 MPH       CASS               ND   MESONET

            MEASURED 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN AND DIME SIZED HAIL.
            REPORTED BY ND ARB OBSERVER

0705 PM     HAIL             2 W ARGUSVILLE          47.05N 96.98W
08/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       CASS               ND   PUBLIC

0745 PM     HAIL             BADGER                  48.78N 96.02W
08/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA.

0805 PM     HAIL             1 SE SHELLY             47.45N 96.80W
08/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       NORMAN             MN   PUBLIC

0810 PM     HAIL             3 E GARDNER             47.14N 96.90W
08/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       CASS               ND   PUBLIC

            A FEW DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINS.

0835 PM     HAIL             4 SSE FOX               48.79N 95.86W
08/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS WERE ACCOMPANIED BY
            INTERMITTENT LARGE HAIL.

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S ROSEAU              48.76N 95.76W
08/07/2015                   ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWNED AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
            TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0842 PM     HAIL             6 S ROSEAU              48.76N 95.76W
08/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE MALUNG             48.76N 95.71W
08/07/2015                   ROSEAU             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW 3 TO 4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES BROKEN DOWN. HEAVY
            RAINFALL OF OF 1.18 INCHES AND SOME DIME SIZED HAIL.

0900 PM     HAIL             3 N FELTON              47.12N 96.50W
08/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       CLAY               MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURE POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED
            BASED ON RADAR.

0908 PM     HAIL             5 ESE BORUP             47.15N 96.41W
08/07/2015  E1.25 INCH       NORMAN             MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT AND PICTURES POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

0919 PM     HAIL             SKIME                   48.55N 95.60W
08/07/2015  E1.50 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAINS AND OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL WERE REPORTED.
            REPORTS AND PICTURES WERE ALSO POSTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
            HAIL OCCURRED OVER A PERIOD OF 3 TO 5 MINUTES.

0920 PM     HAIL             1 N ULEN                47.09N 96.26W
08/07/2015  E0.75 INCH       CLAY               MN   PUBLIC

            A FEW SMALL MARBLE TO DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED.

0950 PM     HAIL             1 NW GRYGLA             48.31N 95.64W
08/07/2015  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           MN   PUBLIC

            BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND A FEW LARGE HAIL FROM DIME TO
            QUARTER SIZED.

&&

GGUST

Special weather statement, Aug 12, 2:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
242 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

MNZ004-005-007-008-122045-
ROSEAU MN-WEST MARSHALL MN-EAST MARSHALL MN-KITTSON MN-
242 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KITTSON...NORTH
CENTRAL MARSHALL AND SOUTHWESTERN ROSEAU COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 242 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
KARLSTAD...OR 34 MILES NORTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STRATHCONA AROUND 320 PM CDT.
  GREENBUSH AROUND 325 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4877 9592 4850 9586 4848 9653 4866 9657
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 261DEG 16KT 4859 9645

SPEICHER

Local storm report, Aug 12, 3:51 PM CDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
351 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             6 NW KARLSTAD           48.64N 96.61W
08/12/2015  E0.88 INCH       KITTSON            MN   PUBLIC

            REPORTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF COUNTY ROAD 7 AND STATE
            HIGHWAY 11

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Aug 12, 4:18 PM CDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
418 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             10 NE MIDDLE RIVER      48.54N 96.01W
08/12/2015  E1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           MN   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR

&&

KNUTSVIG

Local storm report, Aug 12, 5:04 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
504 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             5 WSW PINECREEK         48.95N 96.04W
08/12/2015  E1.75 INCH       ROSEAU             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KNUTSVIG

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 12, 2:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Marshall	63 min
Aug 12, 2:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Roseau	63 min
Aug 12, 3:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Marshall, Pennington, Roseau	64 min
Aug 12, 4:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Roseau	60 min
Aug 12, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Pennington	51 min
Aug 12, 5:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods, Roseau	48 min
Aug 12, 5:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard, Mahnomen	59 min
Aug 12, 6:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard, Wadena	57 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.