Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

ACTIVE LATE AFTN WITH A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...ONE FROM SE MANITOBA INTO ROSEAU COUNTY AND THE OTHER FROM
EAST OF THIEF RIVER FALLS TO NORTHEAST OF PARK RAPIDS. STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED WEST OF THE STORMS THAT WERE EAST OF TRF
AND EXTENDS FROM ABOUT CROOKSTON TO ALVARADO. ALSO A WEAK BOUNDARY
(WIND SHIFT) EXTENDS OVER NE ND FROM ABOUT PEMBINA TO GRAFTON TO
NEAR MICHIGAN. QUESTION IS IF ANY STORMS WILL GET ORGANIZED ALONG
THESE BOUNDARIES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIN IS INCREASING PER SPC
MESO PAGE IN THE RRV AND LOW LEVEL JET IS MORE POISED TO INFLUENCE
STORM NOW MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO CASS COUNTY MN. THUS OUTSIDE OF
SOME WEAKER SHOWER OR STORM DONT EXPECT TOO MUCH...BUT WILL
MONITOR. MANY OF THE VERY SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE MODELS TOO
OVERDONE WITH CONVECTION IN RRV INTO SE ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH AND CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT REMAIN WEAK (THIS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
CAP STILL IN PLACE). THIS ACTIVITY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
SEVERE POTENTIAL NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER (WHERE CLOUDS HAVE
KEPT TEMPS COOLER)...BUT JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA MLCAPE HAS BECOME
STRONG. AS LOW-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES TOWARD 00Z WHEN THE CAP IS
WEAKEST...ANTICIPATE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SFC BASED AND
STRENGTHEN. WILL EXPAND T+ INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY GIVEN LATEST
TRENDS (WITH MAIN THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY). STILL
THINKING AN AREA OF STORMS MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH (ISOLD TO
SCATTERED) WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT (AND POSSIBLY
HAIL) GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT (AS DISCUSSED IN THE LATEST SPC
SWOMCD).

WARM AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH 100F DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A HEAT ADVISORY. AFTER THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH ANY WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD PRODUCE A THUNDERSTORM...FORCING SHOULD BE RATHER
WEAK AND NOT ENOUGH TO OVERCOME CAPPING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN UNDER SIMILAR
CONDITIONS AS THURSDAY...EXCEPT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE
CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP UNDER THIS PATTERN IS VERY LOW. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. THE ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

SATURDAY EVENING-WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH LONG
TERM MODELS BRING A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SFC LOW ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...GIVING REGION A CHANCE FOR STRONG
TSTMS IF FROPA TRANSITS DURING PEAK HEATING. SW FLOW THEN BECOMES
MORE NW AS CANADIAN RIDGE SETS UP...KEEPING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
DRY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS MID WEEK...BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

TSTMS OVER BEMIDJI MOVING OUT. FEW REMAINING SHOWERS OR STORMS IN
NW MN AND STILL SMALL CHANCE IN THE RRV THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE
SKIES WILL HAVE SCATTERED HIGH BASED CU AND CIRRUS. WEST WINDS AT
DVL WILL TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHWEST AND DIMINISH THIS EVE WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA SEEING WINDS SETTLING DOWN TO 5 TO 10 KTS AND
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
841 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-130930-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
841 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE HAIL GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR A SHORT TIME
THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE REGION
LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JAM

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