Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 13, 2015, 6:23 PM EDT for 27 counties in North Carolina; 34 counties in Virginia; Pendleton County, West Virginia. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2015, 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 14, 2015, 12:05 AM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 65 kt
All 62 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Albemarle County, VA, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Augusta County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Harrisonburg, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, City of Staunton, VA, City of Waynesboro, VA, Craig County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Greene County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, Nelson County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Rockingham County, VA, Pendleton County, WV
The radar
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 30%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 80%
Warnings issued inside it
29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 7:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Craig, Floyd, Montgomery, Patrick and 2 more | 66 min |
| Jul 13, 7:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Montgomery, Moore, Randolph | 63 min |
| Jul 13, 7:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem | 60 min |
| Jul 13, 7:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Forsyth | 59 min |
| Jul 13, 7:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte | 36 min |
| Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin, Henry, Patrick, City of Martinsville | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 8:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Guilford | 70 min |
| Jul 13, 8:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Stokes, Surry | 53 min |
| Jul 13, 8:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Nelson | 33 min |
| Jul 13, 8:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Caswell | 67 min |
| Jul 13, 8:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Rockingham | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 8:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Montgomery, Moore, Stanly | 62 min |
| Jul 13, 8:31 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Buckingham | 59 min |
| Jul 13, 8:40 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Orange, Person | 65 min |
| Jul 13, 8:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Campbell, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista and 2 more | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 8:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Campbell, Pittsylvania, City of Danville | 60 min |
| Jul 13, 8:46 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Davidson, Forsyth, Randolph | 74 min |
| Jul 13, 8:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Campbell, Charlotte | 56 min |
| Jul 13, 9:00 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Caswell | 60 min |
| Jul 13, 9:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Anson, Montgomery, Stanly | 67 min |
| Jul 13, 9:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Amherst, Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania | 75 min |
| Jul 13, 9:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Alamance, Guilford, Orange | 72 min |
| Jul 13, 9:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LWX | Nelson | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 9:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Anson, Montgomery, Moore, Randolph, Richmond | 77 min |
| Jul 13, 9:38 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Durham, Granville, Person | 70 min |
| Jul 13, 9:42 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Chatham | 67 min |
| Jul 13, 9:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Anson, Richmond | 81 min |
| Jul 13, 10:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RAH | Harnett, Hoke, Lee, Moore, Richmond | 42 min |
| Jul 13, 10:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Charlotte | 28 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 10.4 hours before the alert went out and 19 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 803 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1058 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 4:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 12 more | 83 min |
| Jul 13, 4:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 13 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 13, 5:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Caldwell, Madison, Mitchell and 5 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 13, 6:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cabarrus, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Gaston, Graham and 11 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 13, 12:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson | 7 hr |
| Jul 13, 3:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buchanan, Dickenson | 86 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in West Virginia, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.