Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 13, 2015, 4:39 PM EDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2015, 4:39 PM EDT (20:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 13, 2015, 9:20 PM EDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 57 counties
Alexander County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Davie County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Surry County, NC, Watauga County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Yancey County, NC, Carter County, TN, Claiborne County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Union County, TN, Washington County, TN, Bland County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Bristol, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Norton, VA, City of Radford, VA, Floyd County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Lee County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Greenbrier County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Summers County, WV
The radar
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 10%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 2%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 50%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 5:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Lee, Russell, Scott, Wise, City of Norton | 56 min |
| Jul 13, 5:33 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Smyth, Wythe | 57 min |
| Jul 13, 5:36 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Carter, Johnson, Sullivan | 54 min |
| Jul 13, 5:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Smyth, Tazewell | 51 min |
| Jul 13, 5:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock and 3 more | 38 min |
| Jul 13, 6:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Russell, Scott, Washington, City of Bristol | 57 min |
| Jul 13, 6:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bland, Giles, Tazewell | 58 min |
| Jul 13, 6:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Carter, Greene, Hawkins, Sullivan, Unicoi, Washington | 41 min |
| Jul 13, 6:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Carter, Johnson, Sullivan | 51 min |
| Jul 13, 6:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Greenbrier, Monroe, Summers | 65 min |
| Jul 13, 6:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Claiborne, Cocke, Grainger, Greene, Hamblen, Hancock and 3 more | 64 min |
| Jul 13, 6:32 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Pulaski, Smyth, Wythe | 58 min |
| Jul 13, 6:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Ashe, Watauga | 49 min |
| Jul 13, 6:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MRX | Carter, Greene, Sullivan, Unicoi, Washington | 34 min |
| Jul 13, 6:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Avery, Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, Madison, Mitchell and 1 more | 76 min |
| Jul 13, 6:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Carroll, City of Galax | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 7:09 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Alleghany, Bath, Craig, Floyd, Montgomery, Patrick and 2 more | 66 min |
| Jul 13, 7:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Buncombe, McDowell, Madison | 46 min |
| Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin, Henry, Patrick, City of Martinsville | 61 min |
| Jul 13, 8:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Iredell, McDowell and 1 more | 39 min |
| Jul 13, 8:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | RNK | Stokes, Surry | 53 min |
| Jul 13, 8:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Polk, Rutherford, Transylvania | 21 min |
| Jul 13, 8:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus, Iredell, Mecklenburg, Rowan | 48 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 803 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -68 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1058 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.3
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 12:01 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Boone and 87 more | 89 min |
| Jul 13, 12:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 92 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 13, 3:04 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Anderson, Barren, Bath, Bell and 88 more | 86 min |
| Jul 13, 5:45 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Barren, Bell, Casey, Clay, Clinton and 25 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Henderson | 91 min |
| Jul 13, 4:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke and 12 more | 83 min |
| Jul 13, 6:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Caswell, Chatham, Cumberland, Davidson and 21 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 13, 6:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Cabarrus, Cherokee, Clay, Cleveland, Gaston, Graham and 11 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in North Carolina, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Tennessee, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.