Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Blacksburg, VA

July 13, 2015Roanoke County, City of Roanoke, City of Salem, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT for Roanoke County, City of Roanoke, City of Salem, Virginia. It was in force for 60 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2015, 7:30 PM EDT (23:30 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2015, 8:30 PM EDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Roanoke County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 13, 7:47 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	4 Nnw Boones Mill, VA	VDOT REPORTS A TREE DOWN ALONG BACK CREEK ROAD IN ROANOKE COUNTY, VA.
Jul 13, 7:52 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Roanoke, VA	SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF ROANOKE...INCLUDING 9TH STREET AND MURRAY...JAMISON AVENUE...12TH STREET....MONTROSE STREET...TAZEWELL STREET...AND 6TH AVENUE. TIME ESTIMATES FROM RADAR SUGGEST DAMAGE OCCURED FROM 752 PM TO 805 PM.
Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	5 Ese Roanoke, VA	VDOT REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON HALIFAX CIRCLE, COUNTY ROAD 1068. THE ROAD WAS CLOSED AS A RESULT.
Jul 13, 8:07 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Vinton, VA	SEVERAL TREES UPROOTED IN VINTON. REPORT FROM WDBJ-TV.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 17 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 13, 6:23 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 377 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -41 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 669 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 119 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

435 
WUUS51 KRNK 132330
SVRRNK
VAC161-770-775-140030-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0098.150713T2330Z-150714T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
730 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ROANOKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF SALEM IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  THE CITY OF ROANOKE IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT

* AT 728 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR 
  CATAWBA TO ELLISTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ROANOKE...
  SALEM...
  VINTON...
  SALEM CITY...
  AND CATAWBA. 

THIS INCLUDES THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS AND ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO 
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3741 8006 3732 7986 3730 7984 3727 7986
      3723 7984 3721 7988 3716 7991 3714 7996
      3715 8000 3717 8001 3717 8003 3716 8009
      3712 8012 3711 8017 3723 8019 3730 8026
      3734 8026 3738 8020 3738 8015 3742 8007
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 275DEG 30KT 3727 8021 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

2 follow-up statements

995 
WWUS51 KRNK 132350
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

VAC161-770-775-140030-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-150714T0030Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF SALEM VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-
750 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT 
FOR CENTRAL ROANOKE ...THE CITY OF SALEM...AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

AT 750 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HOLLINS TO BENT MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
SALEM...
VINTON...
BENT MOUNTAIN...
AND SALEM CITY. 

THIS INCLUDES THE SALEM FAIRGROUNDS AND ROANOKE REGIONAL AIRPORT.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT
STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3712 8017 3739 8001 3732 7986 3730 7984
      3727 7986 3723 7984 3721 7988 3716 7991
      3714 7996 3715 8000 3717 8001 3717 8003
      3716 8009 3712 8012
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 268DEG 37KT 3738 7996 3715 8010 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

850 
WWUS51 KRNK 140018
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
818 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

VAC775-140026-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-150714T0030Z/
CITY OF SALEM VA-
818 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR THE CITY OF SALEM HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED EAST OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 
HOWEVER...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND 
LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

LAT...LON 3715 7999 3734 7989 3732 7986 3730 7984
      3727 7986 3723 7984 3721 7988 3716 7991
      3714 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 262DEG 20KT 3730 7984 3720 7990 

$$

VAC161-770-140030-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-150714T0030Z/
ROANOKE VA-CITY OF ROANOKE VA-
818 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROANOKE AND THE CITY OF ROANOKE...

AT 816 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR VINTON TO NEAR ROANOKE MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROANOKE...
VINTON...
AND ROANOKE MOUNTAIN. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND
ON TWITTER.

&&

LAT...LON 3715 7999 3734 7989 3732 7986 3730 7984
      3727 7986 3723 7984 3721 7988 3716 7991
      3714 7996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 262DEG 20KT 3730 7984 3720 7990 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RAB

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 6:27 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 6:27 PM EDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY...TRENDING OUR CONDITIONS COOLER AND DRIER. WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 414 THROUGH 1 AM FOR THE
REMAINING COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AS OF 530 PM EDT MONDAY...

ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 412 THROUGH 10PM AND
EXTENDED INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IF LINE HOLDS TOGETHER ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WATCH POSSIBLE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE LATER THIS
EVENING.

AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY HEADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO. STEERING TRAJECTORIES OPT FOR A SOLUTION THAT
CONTINUES ITS MOTION TOWARDS OUR REGION...ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 700 PM TO 800 PM THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...AT THE SAME...THE BEST INSTABILITY IS ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK...SO THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY MAY PASS WEST OF OUR REGION...AND
MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE. WE ALSO HAVE THE QUESTION OF HOW
FAR EAST THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. GOOD COVERAGE EAST
TO THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IS LIKELY. EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...CONFIDENCE IS LESS...AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE LOWER CHANCES
IN THIS REGION. IN TOTAL...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LAST ON THE ORDER OF THREE HOURS BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ENDING. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
GREATEST THREAT.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR THE NIGHT. THE SECOND ROUND IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PERHAPS COMPARABLE IN LOCATION TO THE
SYSTEM FROM EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ARRIVING A LITTLE LATER SO THAT
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LINGER INTO MORE OF THE MORNING HOURS IN
THE EAST.

LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS AGAIN FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM AN
UPSTREAM LOCATION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. SOME OF THESE AGAIN
MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO ASSESS HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS DURING THE UPCOMING FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PERIOD TO DETERMINE IF ANY EXTENSIONS IN TIME OR A
DIFFERENT GEOGRAPHICAL GROUPING IS WARRANTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY UPWARD FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AS COMPARED TO READINGS FROM THIS MORNING. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 60S
IN THE WEST AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN THE EAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COMPARABLE OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE OF TODAY.
ANTICIPATE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE WEST AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

500 MB UPPER LOW/TROF MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN WILL BE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS
SHOWED SOME DECENT JET DYNAMICS TOO WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE EAST COAST
BY THURSDAY MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN BUT THREAT WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHERE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS END UP TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE RAISED THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION FOR A LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT.

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. STAYED
CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.
WARMER AIR MASS RETURNS WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING +20
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

STABLE AIR MASS COMES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS WILL ALSO CAP
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING.  HIGH IS FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE
BY SATURDAY FOR A RETURN OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY BACK INTO THE
AREA. HAVE REMOVED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT.
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY. NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT MONDAY...

A MIX OF LOW END VFR AN MVFR CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME OF THEM IN GREAT ENOUGH CONCENTRATION FOR A CEILING OF
STARTO-CU. LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MID-AFTERNOON. ONCE WE REACH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE FOR TWO
REASONS. PEAK HEATING WILL HAVE PASSED...AND DIURNALLY BASED
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE. IN THE WEST...COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...THAT
IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH
COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA NOT AS CONFIDENT. A MIX
OF IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER OF THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WIND GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE GREATER THAN 30 KTS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST AROUND TWO TO THREE HOURS. MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR FOG IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AFTER THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG
WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS SO THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOW END VFR BY 18Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE NORTHWEST/BAROCLINIC FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES APPEAR LIKELY WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING ATTM. PLACEMENT FAVORS A TRACK FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN THE USUAL
SPOTS...KLWB/KBCB/KLYH...AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD BE VFR
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE TWO SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE SEPARATED BY
MULTIPLE HOURS...GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN SOME OF THE REGION RECEIVED
LAST NIGHT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM 600 PM THIS
EVENING THROUGH NOON ON TUESDAY. THE AREA OF THE WATCH WILL BE THOSE
COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND
BEDFORD...FRANKLIN...AND PATRICK COUNTIES IN VIRGINIA. MUCH OF THE
WATCH AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE BETWEEN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
OF RAIN TO ONE INCH OF RAIN OVER THE TWELVE HOUR PERIOD.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES IN A
SHORTER PERIOD OF TIME WILL PROMPT FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION WXM72 IN HINTON WEST VIRGINIA...OPERATING
ON A FREQUENCY OF 162.425 MEGAHERTZ...IS CURRENTLY OUT OF
SERVICE. TECHNICIANS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM. WE APOLOGIZE FOR
ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY CAUSE.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR VAZ007-009>020-
     022>024-032>034.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NCZ001-002-018.
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR WVZ042>044-507-
     508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS/RCS
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...DS
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 13, 6:25 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
625 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>017-WVZ042>044-507-508-142230-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
EASTERN GREENBRIER-WESTERN GREENBRIER-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ032-142230-
PATRICK-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ018>020-022>024-033-034-142230-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ004>006-VAZ035-043>047-058-059-142230-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 414 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003-019-020-142230-
SURRY-WILKES-YADKIN-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS. STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 13, 7:04 PM EDT, 26 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

VAZ024-035-045-046-140000-
APPOMATTOX-CAMPBELL-ROCKBRIDGE-AMHERST-
704 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT APPOMATTOX...CITY OF BUENA
VISTA...AMHERST...EASTERN ROCKBRIDGE...CAMPBELL AND CITY OF
LYNCHBURG COUNTIES...

AT 703 PM EDT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING
FROM APPOMATTOX TO LYNCHBURG TO BUENA VISTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LYNCHBURG...
BUENA VISTA...
AMHERST...
APPOMATTOX...
AND GLASGOW.

THIS INCLUDES LIBERTY UNIVERSITY AND LYNCHBURG AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3725 7868 3720 7882 3702 7891 3709 7913
      3731 7929 3739 7923 3745 7927 3747 7918
      3761 7946 3756 7944 3756 7946 3764 7951
      3794 7923 3788 7915 3781 7917 3770 7899
      3755 7890 3755 7882 3740 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 296DEG 10KT 3749 7917

RAB

Local storm report, Jul 13, 7:06 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
706 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PICKAWAY                37.63N 80.52W
07/13/2015                   MONROE             WV   911 CALL CENTER

            THREE TREES BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

&&

HYSELL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 7:17 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             1 NW RADFORD            37.14N 80.58W
07/13/2015  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HYSELL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 7:21 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
721 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     HAIL             CEDAR BLUFF             37.09N 81.76W
07/13/2015  E0.88 INCH       TAZEWELL           VA   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN CEDAR BLUFF,
            VA.

&&

JMORROW

Local storm report, Jul 13, 7:28 PM EDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHILHOWIE               36.80N 81.68W
07/13/2015                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            A COUPLE OF TREES BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORMS WINDS IN
            TOWN.

&&

HYSELL

Local storm report, Jul 13, 7:29 PM EDT, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALTVILLE               36.88N 81.76W
07/13/2015                   SMYTH              VA   911 CALL CENTER

            AT LEAST TWO TREES BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN
            TOWN.

&&

HYSELL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 9:45 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Craig, Franklin, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	60 min
Jul 12, 10:23 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Craig, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	112 min
Jul 12, 11:06 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Alleghany, Bedford, Botetourt, Craig, City of Covington, City of Roanoke and 1 more	54 min
Jul 12, 11:30 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Bland	60 min
Jul 13, 12:14 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Giles, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford	61 min
Jul 13, 12:29 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	3 hr
Jul 13, 1:01 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Franklin	59 min
Jul 13, 1:08 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Carroll, Floyd, Franklin	52 min
Jul 13, 1:17 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Giles	3 hr
Jul 13, 1:39 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Franklin, Pittsylvania	42 min
Jul 13, 1:46 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford	44 min
Jul 13, 2:18 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Floyd, Patrick	57 min
Jul 13, 3:06 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Patrick	3 hr
Jul 13, 6:43 AM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	RNK	Botetourt, Craig, Roanoke, City of Roanoke, City of Salem	4 hr
Jul 13, 3:36 PM EDT	Flash Flood Watch	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Bedford, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll and 20 more	16 hr
Jul 13, 5:29 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Smyth	46 min
Jul 13, 5:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Smyth, Wythe	57 min
Jul 13, 5:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Smyth, Tazewell	51 min
Jul 13, 6:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bland, Giles, Tazewell	58 min
Jul 13, 6:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Pulaski, Smyth, Wythe	58 min
Jul 13, 6:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Grayson	49 min
Jul 13, 6:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Pittsylvania	65 min
Jul 13, 6:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Carroll, City of Galax	61 min
Jul 13, 7:04 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	RNK	Amherst, Appomattox, Campbell, City of Buena Vista, City of Lynchburg	56 min
Jul 13, 7:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Alleghany, Bath, Craig, Floyd, Montgomery, Patrick and 2 more	66 min
Jul 13, 7:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Appomattox, Campbell, Charlotte	36 min
Jul 13, 7:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Bedford, Botetourt, Franklin, Henry, Patrick, City of Martinsville	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.