Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
700 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Mainly MVFR ceilings expected across the terminals through early
afternoon, before ceilings lift to VFR. The exception will be KABI
where IFR ceilings will persist through the late morning hours.
Keeping a TEMPO group at KJCT and KBBD for SHRA this morning,
otherwise some additonal rain showers may redevelop and affect
primarily the southern terminals after 20Z, ending by early
evening. Stratus is expected to develop overnight, with MVFR
ceilings affecting the southern terminals after 09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding remain possible
again today...

More beneficial rains will continue across portions of West Central
Texas through this afternoon/early evening. Early this morning,
widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across much
of the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country, with this activity
becoming more scattered across the Concho Valley. Where it does
rain, very heavy rainfall with rapid accumulation rates remain
likely, as precipitable water values range from 1.7 inches across
western locations (Sterling County to Crockett County), to 2.1
inches across the eastern part of the forecast area. Most of the
numerical guidance also shows additional convection developing this
afternoon, mainly east of a line from Throckmorton to San Angelo.
They also show good precipitation amounts through early afternoon,
before things start to wind down. We considered extended the Flash
Flood Watch in time through 7 PM. However, with uncertainty
regarding how late into the afternoon the heavier precipitation
lasts, we decided to hold off on this and let the next shift monitor
the trends in the numerical guidance. The Flood Watch was also
expanded east to include McCulloch and San Saba Counties.

Any remaining convection will diminish by sunset, with drier air
moving into the region overnight. Lows will drop into the lower 70s
at most locations.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Warmer and drier air will return to area for the middle to end of
the week. A ridge of high pressure currently located across the
southeastern states will build westward through the remainder of
this week, strengthening as it does so, with the center of the ridge
taking up residence over eastern New Mexico by early next week. This
will result in a continued influx of dry air with increasing
upper-level heights. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are likely for this
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 86  72  91  71  91 /  50  10   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 89  72  91  70  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
Junction 	 89  72  91  71  90 /  30   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coleman...Concho...
McCulloch...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

99/99/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-090915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
402 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON...TO SAN ANGELO. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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