Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2015

Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS San Angelo, TX

July 8, 2015McCulloch County, San Saba County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Jul 8, 2015, 8:52 AM CDT for McCulloch County, San Saba County, Texas. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 8, 2015, 8:52 AM CDT (13:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 8, 2015, 1:00 PM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties McCulloch County, TX, San Saba County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 240 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 257 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -10 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 828 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -89 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -40 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

449 
WGUS54 KSJT 081352
FFWSJT
TXC307-411-081800-
/O.NEW.KSJT.FF.W.0041.150708T1352Z-150708T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
852 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MCCULLOCH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
  SAN SABA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 100 PM CDT

* AT 848 AM CDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS
  SOUTHERN MCCULLOCH AND SAN SABA COUNTIES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
  INCHES HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
  IF RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 10 AM. FLODDING IS LIKELY ALONG CREEKS AND 
  LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

* IMPACTS FROM THIS INTENSE RAINFALL WILL INCLUDE:
  FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS AND INTERSECTIONS.
  RAPID RISE OF AREA CREEKS...STREAMS...AND ARROYOS.

  WATER WILL BE HIGH AND FAST ENOUGH TO STALL VEHICLES OR WASH THEM
  COMPLETELY OFF THE ROAD.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN SABA...
BRADY...CAMP SAN SABA...BRADY LAKE...WALDRIP...VOCA...ROCHELLE...
PLACID...MELVIN...AND CHEROKEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

IN HILLY TERRAIN THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW INCHES OF
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

&&

LAT...LON 3093 9872 3097 9958 3147 9959 3147 9954
      3143 9952 3145 9949 3142 9947 3145 9943
      3147 9944 3141 9931 3147 9925 3145 9910
      3147 9901 3138 9876 3139 9871 3135 9870
      3137 9866 3135 9864

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 8, 7:00 AM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 8, 7:00 AM CDT, 1 hour 52 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
700 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Mainly MVFR ceilings expected across the terminals through early
afternoon, before ceilings lift to VFR. The exception will be KABI
where IFR ceilings will persist through the late morning hours.
Keeping a TEMPO group at KJCT and KBBD for SHRA this morning,
otherwise some additonal rain showers may redevelop and affect
primarily the southern terminals after 20Z, ending by early
evening. Stratus is expected to develop overnight, with MVFR
ceilings affecting the southern terminals after 09Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

..Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding remain possible
again today...

More beneficial rains will continue across portions of West Central
Texas through this afternoon/early evening. Early this morning,
widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across much
of the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country, with this activity
becoming more scattered across the Concho Valley. Where it does
rain, very heavy rainfall with rapid accumulation rates remain
likely, as precipitable water values range from 1.7 inches across
western locations (Sterling County to Crockett County), to 2.1
inches across the eastern part of the forecast area. Most of the
numerical guidance also shows additional convection developing this
afternoon, mainly east of a line from Throckmorton to San Angelo.
They also show good precipitation amounts through early afternoon,
before things start to wind down. We considered extended the Flash
Flood Watch in time through 7 PM. However, with uncertainty
regarding how late into the afternoon the heavier precipitation
lasts, we decided to hold off on this and let the next shift monitor
the trends in the numerical guidance. The Flood Watch was also
expanded east to include McCulloch and San Saba Counties.

Any remaining convection will diminish by sunset, with drier air
moving into the region overnight. Lows will drop into the lower 70s
at most locations.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)

Warmer and drier air will return to area for the middle to end of
the week. A ridge of high pressure currently located across the
southeastern states will build westward through the remainder of
this week, strengthening as it does so, with the center of the ridge
taking up residence over eastern New Mexico by early next week. This
will result in a continued influx of dry air with increasing
upper-level heights. Highs in the mid to upper 90s are likely for this
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 86  72  91  71  91 /  50  10   5   0   0
San Angelo 	 89  72  91  70  92 /  40   5   5   0   0
Junction 	 89  72  91  71  90 /  30   5   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 PM CDT this afternoon FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coleman...Concho...
McCulloch...Runnels...San Saba...Shackelford...Taylor...
Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

99/99/24

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 8, 4:02 AM CDT, 4 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-090915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
402 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON...TO SAN ANGELO. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 8, 3:31 AM CDT, 5 hours 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNWOOD               31.71N  98.99W
07/08/2015                   BROWN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS INTERSECTIONS ACROSS TOWN ARE FLOODED AND ARE
            BEING BARRICADED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500506

JW

Local storm report, Jul 8, 4:31 AM CDT, 4 hours 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
431 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NE BRADY              31.21N  99.25W
07/08/2015                   MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HEAVY FLOODING REPORTED ALONG US 377 FROM FM
            1121...NORTH TO THE COUNTY BORDER. TWO MALE OCCUPANTS OF
            ONE VECHILE CURRENTLY AWAITING RESCUE. SOME CARS HAVE
            BEEN SWEPT AWAY BY THE FLOOD WATERS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500507

DOLL

Local storm report, Jul 8, 5:30 AM CDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
530 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E ROCHELLE            31.22N  99.19W
07/08/2015                   MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 190 EAST OF ROCHELLE IS COMPLETELY UNDER WATER
            AND IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500508

JW

Local storm report, Jul 8, 5:33 AM CDT, 3 hours 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
533 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNWOOD               31.71N  98.99W
07/08/2015                   BROWN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 377 JUST SOUTH OF BROWNWOOD IS SHUT DOWN DUE TO
            WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS THE ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500509

JW

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 7:14 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Crockett	2 hr
Jul 7, 11:49 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Brown, McCulloch	116 min
Jul 8, 1:02 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Coleman, McCulloch, San Saba	3 hr
Jul 8, 1:59 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Menard	2 hr
Jul 8, 3:41 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Concho, Menard, Schleicher	109 min
Jul 8, 4:17 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Coleman, McCulloch, San Saba	3 hr
Jul 8, 7:06 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Coleman, McCulloch, San Saba	114 min
Jul 8, 7:30 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Callahan, Coleman	90 min
Jul 8, 8:45 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Coleman	4 hr
Jul 8, 9:17 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, San Saba	24 hr
Jul 8, 9:17 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	SJT	Lampasas, San Saba	49 hr
Jul 8, 12:18 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Coleman	3 hr
Jul 8, 12:20 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	SJT	Brown	72 hr
Jul 8, 3:26 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Brown, Coleman	3 hr
Jul 8, 4:32 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	SJT	Irion, Tom Green	118 min
Jul 8, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Tom Green	30 min
Jul 8, 5:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SJT	Tom Green	43 min
Jul 8, 6:49 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	SJT	Brown	12 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2015 Every flash flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.