Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1134 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Very challenging flight weather will continue for the next 12 to
18 hours. Models this cycle continue to hold all terminals in the
MVFR range through tomorrow afternoon. Plus, short-term models
continue to indicate potential thunderstorm redevelopment tonight.
Thus, terminals this cycle very close to previous forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for very challenging flight weather conditions for the next
24 hours. Thunderstorms or MVFR ceilings will dominate much of
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Expect some showers and
all thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall, which will likely
reduce the visibility to less than one mile.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

With the ongoing weather, discussion will be short. Shortwave
pushing into the area along with abundant low level moisture will
set the stage for heavy rainfall. A slow moving cold front is draped
along the western border of the Concho Valley and Big Country, or
roughly from Fort Stockton to Sweetwater to Wichita Falls at 3 PM.
Boundary is acting a focus for new convective developing which has
brought heavy rainfall to San Angelo since 2 PM. The storms are
drifting north while the boundary drifts south, which means the
storms are not moving very much at all and will continue to bring
heavy rainfall to the Concho Valley and eventually back into the
northern Heartland through this evening. Have brought the Flash
Flood Watch a row of counties farther south to include San Angelo
and Brownwood, and have increased PoPs to match. Unusually high
PWAT's will make for fairly efficient rain producers and the
threat of flash flooding will continue until the system can finally
exit to the east on Wednesday.

07

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

Dry and warmer weather expected into next week...

An upper level high over the southeastern states Wednesday night
will migrate westward into the Southern Plains through this
coming weekend, resulting in an upper ridge dominating the
central CONUS. This scenario will portend dry weather and warming
afternoon highs for the forecast area. Afternoon highs in the
lower 90s Thursday will warm into the mid to upper 90s by the
beginning of next week. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s to
the lower 70s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  89  72  91  71 /  80  40  10   5   5
San Angelo 	 70  91  72  91  70 /  80  20   5   5   0
Junction 	 72  90  72  91  71 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
402 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-090915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
402 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM THROCKMORTON...TO SAN ANGELO. DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
140 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNWOOD               31.71N  98.99W
07/08/2015                   BROWN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE WATER RESCUE UNDERWAY. SEVERAL STREETS ARE
            BEGINNING TO FLOOD AND ARE BEING CLOSED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500505

DOLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
331 AM CDT WED JUL 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BROWNWOOD               31.71N  98.99W
07/08/2015                   BROWN              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS INTERSECTIONS ACROSS TOWN ARE FLOODED AND ARE
            BEING BARRICADED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1500506

JW