Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS San Angelo, TX

058 
WGUS74 KSJT 080745
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
245 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

TXC049-083-307-411-080900-
/O.CON.KSJT.FF.W.0037.000000T0000Z-150708T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MCCULLOCH TX-SAN SABA TX-COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
245 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
BROWN...SOUTHEASTERN COLEMAN...NORTHWESTERN SAN SABA AND MCCULLOCH
COUNTIES...

AT 238 AM CDT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
CONTINUE OVER THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES BEWTEEN 3 TO 
6 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES 
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 4 AM. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAMP BOWIE...
LAKE BROWNWOOD STATE PARK...ZEPHYR...TRICKHAM...MAY...EARLY...
BROWNWOOD...BROOKESMITH...BLANKET AND BANGS

THIS INCLUDES THE LOW WATER CROSSINGS AT...
 
  CROSSINGS ALONG COUNTY ROAD 228...
  CR 201 CROSSING CLEAR CREEK...
  COUNTY ROAD 201 CROSSING CLEAR CREEK...
  MILAM DR CROSSING S FORK OF WILLIS CREEK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE 
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS 
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 9875 3161 9877 3148 9898 3146 9897
      3147 9894 3144 9892 3145 9887 3142 9884
      3094 9914 3094 9960 3114 9959 3206 9892
      3205 9889 3170 9867

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1134 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Very challenging flight weather will continue for the next 12 to
18 hours. Models this cycle continue to hold all terminals in the
MVFR range through tomorrow afternoon. Plus, short-term models
continue to indicate potential thunderstorm redevelopment tonight.
Thus, terminals this cycle very close to previous forecasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for very challenging flight weather conditions for the next
24 hours. Thunderstorms or MVFR ceilings will dominate much of
West Central Texas for the next 24 hours. Expect some showers and
all thunderstorms to produce heavy rainfall, which will likely
reduce the visibility to less than one mile.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

With the ongoing weather, discussion will be short. Shortwave
pushing into the area along with abundant low level moisture will
set the stage for heavy rainfall. A slow moving cold front is draped
along the western border of the Concho Valley and Big Country, or
roughly from Fort Stockton to Sweetwater to Wichita Falls at 3 PM.
Boundary is acting a focus for new convective developing which has
brought heavy rainfall to San Angelo since 2 PM. The storms are
drifting north while the boundary drifts south, which means the
storms are not moving very much at all and will continue to bring
heavy rainfall to the Concho Valley and eventually back into the
northern Heartland through this evening. Have brought the Flash
Flood Watch a row of counties farther south to include San Angelo
and Brownwood, and have increased PoPs to match. Unusually high
PWAT's will make for fairly efficient rain producers and the
threat of flash flooding will continue until the system can finally
exit to the east on Wednesday.

07

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)

Dry and warmer weather expected into next week...

An upper level high over the southeastern states Wednesday night
will migrate westward into the Southern Plains through this
coming weekend, resulting in an upper ridge dominating the
central CONUS. This scenario will portend dry weather and warming
afternoon highs for the forecast area. Afternoon highs in the
lower 90s Thursday will warm into the mid to upper 90s by the
beginning of next week. Morning lows will be in the upper 60s to
the lower 70s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 69  89  72  91  71 /  80  40  10   5   5
San Angelo 	 70  91  72  91  70 /  80  20   5   5   0
Junction 	 72  90  72  91  71 /  30  10   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Wednesday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...Fisher...
Haskell...Irion...Jones...Nolan...Runnels...Shackelford...
Sterling...Taylor...Throckmorton...Tom Green.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-081915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
207 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF AN OZONA TO SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.