Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Springfield, MO

879 
WWUS53 KSGF 252203
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
503 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MOC097-109-145-252215-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-150325T2215Z/
JASPER MO-NEWTON MO-LAWRENCE MO-
503 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
LAWRENCE...NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL
515 PM CDT...

AT 501 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SARCOXIE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVILLA...LA RUSSELL...MILLER...REEDS...SARCOXIE...STOTTS CITY AND
WENTWORTH.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 21 AND 41 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3693 9404 3697 9424 3723 9431 3722 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 219DEG 45KT 3714 9400

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

BOXELL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Elevated convection developed north of a warm front over parts of
southeast Kansas into southwest MO. Steep mid level lapse rates
and mid level storm updraft rotation supported some large hail with
some storms.

A warm front from just north of Tulsa to the sw corner of MO then
into north central AR is expected to continue to lift north to
along a Columbus KS-Springfield-West Plains line by 6 pm with a
sfc trough/dry line extending to the southwest from ne into central
OK. An outflow boundary is also present south of earlier elevated
convection. Capping evident in the warm sector based on METSAT
data, but synoptic scale lift will increase with an approaching
positively tilted trough from the west along with the right
entrance region with a jet max over the Midwest. Lift will help
break the cap with increased coverage in sfc based storms over ne
OK within the next couple of hours. Progged helicity supports
initial discrete supercell over ne OK transitioning to e-ene
training line segments given the orientation of both the sfc and
mid level winds. Large hail will be the most likely hazard with
lower wind/tornado threat along the southern edge of the
convection where stronger sfc based instability and mesovorts/line
segements can maintain themselves. A severe thunderstorm watch is
in effect through 10 pm for the southern 2/3rds of the cwfa.

Rainfall amounts will be a concern where storms can train this
evening. A hydro watch is already out and it's location still
looks good. The heaviest rain is expected form 00z-06z (7 pm-1 am)
then tapering off from nw-se late tonight.

Chilly blustery conditions will occur as the front moves south and
east of the area Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

Cold air will remain in place to end the week with a cold air mass
over much of the Midwest and eastern CONUS in a highly amplified
upper level pattern. A couple of shortwave (clipper like systems) are
expected to bring some light rain/snow Thursday night and again
Friday night. Temperatures will fall to near freezing both these
nights, even with cloud cover.

The upper level pattern transition back to a less amplified/more
zonal flow over the weekend with a warming trend. A weak
shortwave/associated sfc front will bring limited rain chances
late Sunday. A more substantial shortwave will approach the area
by day 6-7/Tuesday night-Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 200 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Scattered thunderstorms will affect
the area north of a warm front. More widespread storms are
expected after 22z as a disturbance over the Plains interacts
with the front and eventually pushes the front south and east of
the area later in the taf period. MVFR/IFR visibility in heavier
showers are expected with lower mvfr/ifr ceilings developing as
colder air moves into the region. Ceiling will improve and scatter
out from west to east over the region late in the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR MOZ070-071-081>083-
     090>098-101>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1117 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261630-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1117 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AS A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE REGION. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
NICKELS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THAT WARM FRONT
FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR STORMS TRACKING ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD THE
REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. WHILE A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...LINE SEGMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM MODE THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE LINE SEGMENTS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT BOW OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES...IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
  EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
408 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             WENTWORTH               36.99N 94.07W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       NEWTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
417 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             NOBLE                   36.75N 92.57W
03/25/2015  E1.75 INCH       OZARK              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
420 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             WASOLA                  36.79N 92.58W
03/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       OZARK              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
424 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             NOBLE                   36.75N 92.57W
03/25/2015  M2.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
427 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             ANDERSON                36.65N 94.44W
03/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             GREENFIELD              37.42N 93.84W
03/25/2015  E0.88 INCH       DADE               MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

BURCHFIELD