Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

More rain/thunderstorms have moved into sw MO/se KS as yet another
upper level impulse produces lift along/north of a frontal
boundary extending from ne OK east along the MO/AR line into
south central MO. Efficient rain processes are occurring once
again with decent rainfall rates. So far haven't seen prolonged
training, but it won't take much to get runoff going again. We
have a number of new flooding reports over far sw MO. Have issued
some flash flood warnings over far sw MO.

The shortwave will move w-e through the the cwfa tonight with the
sfc warm front and 850mb front convergence/zone gradually shifting
north. The heavier rain axis is expected to shift northeast into
central MO, but high res models vary on timing. Will go with a
consensus and gradually lift higher pops north into central MO
late this evening/overnight. No changes are planned to any hydro
watch statements.

A building upper level ridge with further northward progress of
the warm front will gradually will continue to shunt better rain
chances to the north Friday but will maintain some pops/rain
chances in central MO. Clouds should gradually give way, but
expect them to linger more of the day in central MO with lower max
temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

The upper ridge will actually retrograde a bit over the weekend to
a position back over the Plains, but it will remain far enough north
and east to keep rain chances at bay into early next week. The
eastern edge of a low level thermal ridge will edge into our area.
850mb/max sfc T temperature climo yields low/mid 90s for highs
over the weekend and Monday, but abundant sfc/plant moisture may limit
the highs a degree or two. Humidity will keep things
sticky/uncomfortable.

There is still general agreement on moving a shortwave and
associated sfc front down the front side of the upper ridge by
Tue. The GFS, and to some extent the ECMWF, have backed off on
precip with the position of the upper ridge progged to be somewhat
farther to the east. Synoptic trends will continue to be
monitored, and will continue to include some rain chances for Tue
with the best bet over the eastern counties.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

Areas of rain and thunderstorms will continue to move through the
region today, with the main axis of rain slowly shifting north as
a warm front moves north through the area into tonight. Low
vis/cigs can be expected near the front, with restrictions to MVFR
or IFR possible within areas of rain.

LLWS will develop tonight at the terminals as the front moves
north, with rain finally ending tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
450 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE A
  FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
  TODAY. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE THIS
  ACTIVITY TRAINS...OR REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREAS.

  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
  FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA. OVERALL...A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
  RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED BANDS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND FOUR
  INCHES...IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  RAINFALL WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING
  AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTH.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90 TO
  AROUND 100 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
158 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE CASSVILLE          36.67N 93.86W
07/09/2015                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 76 SOUTHEAST OF CASSVILLE HAS WATER RUNNING OVER
            IT.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E GOODMAN             36.73N 94.31W
07/09/2015                   MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS WATER OVER THE ROAD AT C AND CC
            NEAR ELKHORN CREEK.

&&

BOXELL

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