River Flood Warning 81, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

Active day of rain and a few frisky storms Wednesday and Wednesday
evening has left a boundary draped across southern Missouri. The
low level jet is gathering strength once again this morning. While
it will not be nearly as strong as the one observed yesterday, it
will still be effective as showers and a few storms will expand
along the boundary as we progress through the overnight hours.
Pockets of brief, heavy rain can be expected through daybreak with
radar echoes in the 40+ dBz range providing the most intense
rates. To this point, these higher cores look to be localized and
progressive in nature, but it will need to be watched very closely
given current conditions and recent heavy rainfall.

It will be the aforementioned boundary and a shortwave lifting
northeast out the Texas panhandle region that will be a main
players in our weather pattern over the next 24 to 36 hours. The
trend from the past few sets of model runs has been to slow the
northward progression of the boundary. As a result, PoPs will
linger into Friday across central Missouri.

The best opportunity for rain today will continue to be across
southern Missouri, with a gradual increase in rain chances across
extreme southeastern Kansas and western Missouri as the shortwave
over the Texas panhandle approaches this afternoon into this
evening. The boundary over southern Missouri will begin lifting to
the north as a warm front overnight tonight, and rain chances will
move northward with it.

The main question is how much rain to expect today and tonight.
The airmass in place remains extraordinarily moist (precipitable
water values in excess of 2 inches). The two areas of greatest
concern will be across southern Missouri, through this afternoon,
and then extreme southeastern Kansas into western and central
Missouri later this afternoon through tonight. Current model and
WPC QPF indicate another 1-2 inches of rain possible in these
areas with pockets of locally higher amounts possible in a
sporadic fashion. Current flash flood guidance across the area
ranges from about 1.5 to 2.5 inches for the 1 and 3 hour time
frames, increasing slight up to near 3 inches for the 6 hour time
step. Rainfall rates will likely mimic what we saw on Wednesday
(long duration of moderate rainfall rates over larger areas)
versus what we saw Tuesday (short duration of of intense rates
over small areas). For now, will hold off on any flood watches,
but will continue to close eye on the need.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

Rain chances will linger across central Missouri well into Friday
before finally ending as the warm front exits to the north late
Friday afternoon and Friday night. The 00z suite of model output
offers little change to the expectations for the weekend into next
week. Upper level ridging dominates during the weekend with
northwest flow reestablishing itself next week. Temperatures will
warm to typical summer levels, with plenty of humidity to go along
with it. Highs a few degrees either side of 90 and heat index
values in the 95 to around 100 degree range look to be a good bet
into early next week.

The greatest uncertainty next week is just where the axis of
northwest flow sets up. At this point, blurring ones eyes, it
appears this axis will be either over or very near the area. As a
result, will continue above average temperatures and more dry
forecast over western areas with near average temperatures and
rain chances over eastern areas. Being so close to the western
edge of this northwest flow regime will likely result in changes
from upcoming forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

Areas of rain and thunderstorms will continue to move through the
region today, with the main axis of rain slowly shifting north as
a warm front moves north through the area into tonight. Low
vis/cigs can be expected near the front, with restrictions to MVFR
or IFR possible within areas of rain.

LLWS will develop tonight at the terminals as the front moves
north, with rain finally ending tomorrow morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
450 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL BE A
  FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI
  TODAY. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE THIS
  ACTIVITY TRAINS...OR REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREAS.

  THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
  FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA. OVERALL...A GENERAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF
  RAINFALL...WITH LOCALIZED BANDS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS TO AROUND FOUR
  INCHES...IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  RAINFALL WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY MORNING
  AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTH.

  AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90 TO
  AROUND 100 DEGREES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
  MISSOURI OZARKS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
158 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE CASSVILLE          36.67N 93.86W
07/09/2015                   BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

            HIGHWAY 76 SOUTHEAST OF CASSVILLE HAS WATER RUNNING OVER
            IT.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
201 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0159 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E GOODMAN             36.73N 94.31W
07/09/2015                   MCDONALD           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS WATER OVER THE ROAD AT C AND CC
            NEAR ELKHORN CREEK.

&&

BOXELL