River Flood Warning 51, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

A stationary front remains draped near the I-70 corridor early
this morning and continues to provide a focus storm development as
a shortwave trough moves across eastern Kansas. Further to the
west...another storm complex has developed over western Kansas
ahead of another shortwave trough. These disturbances will help
nudge the I-70 front south across the forecast area through the
day. Will keep higher end precipitation chances going through the
day. Temperatures may get a little warmer than previously expected
along the AR/southeast KS borders. Otherwise will keep the lower to
mid 80s going for max temperatures.

Precipitation chances will decrease from northwest to southeast
through the evening as the front and upper level disturbances
shift southeast of the region.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Much drier conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
spreads southward from the upper Midwest. Temperatures and
dewpoint temps should average around 10 degrees lower than todays
values.

From Sunday through the middle of the workweek...upper level
northwest flow becomes well established...bringing continued
cooler conditions. The latest models show a clipper system moving
across the area on Sunday night and Monday. This will bring us a
fairly quick shot of storms with the highest chances mainly
northeast of Springfield.

Another clipper system may impact the area around
Wednesday/Thursday. Exact timing this far out on these type of
systems is pretty tricky, so went with mainly slight chance to
chance pops through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS: Biggest forecast concerns are on
handling the convection this afternoon at the taf sites and then the
potential for post frontal stratus development tonight.

Surface front remained across central Missouri early this afternoon with
the short term models pushing this southward through the area this
afternoon and then south of the taf sites this evening. Strongest
storms are expected to the southeast of the taf sites with the
rain ending from west to east by mid afternoon. Still expect
variable ceilings this afternoon from VFR outside of convection to
IFR in some of the convective elements in and near the taf sites.

Short term models continue to show the potential for post frontal
stratus development tonight, especially at the KSGF and KBBG
aerodromes. Will continue to mention this in the tafs with a tempo
broken MVFR ceiling. Some guidance is showing IFR conditions so
cannot rule that out. Drier air then advects in towards the end of
the taf period with clearing skies.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Raberding

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
931 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271445-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
931 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION THROUGH MID DAY. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. THERE IS A LIMITED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...AS THIS AREA BECOMES
UNSTABLE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OVER LOCATIONS ACROSS
BOURBON...VERNON...AND ST. CLAIR COUNTY. LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLOOD RISKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BULL SHOALS LAKE TO EMINENCE.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N LOWRY CITY          38.15N 93.73W
06/26/2015                   ST. CLAIR          MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPARTMENT RECEIVED A REPORT OF WATER OVER THE
            ROAD NEAR HIGHWAY A IN SAINT CLAIR COUNTY.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE WARSAW            38.25N 93.38W
06/26/2015                   BENTON             MO   PUBLIC

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN CITY LIMITS. AROUND 0340
            AM A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN NEAR POLK STREET AND HILLCREST
            LANE.

&&

AFOSCATO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1005 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1013 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAURIE                  38.20N 92.83W
06/25/2015                   MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            A COUPLE TREES WERE DOWNED NEAR LAURIE.

&&

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1058 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 AM     TSTM WND DMG     LAURIE                  38.20N 92.83W
06/26/2015                   MORGAN             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A LARGE TREE WAS BLOWN OVER BLOCKING A ROAD AND TWO FIRE
            WORK TENTS COLLAPSE IN THE CITY OF LAURIE.

&&

WISE