Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Springfield, MO

952 
WGUS73 KSGF 260728
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MOC015-261200-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-150626T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON MO-
228 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM CDT FOR
NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY...

AT 225 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE AGAIN BEGINNING TO SHIFT INTO THE WARNED 
AREA. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BENTON COUNTY ALREADY RECEIVED 3 TO 4 
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL MAKE 
FLASH FLOODING LIKELY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BRANDON...COLE CAMP...
CROCKERVILLE...IONIA...LINCOLN...MORA AND PALO PINTO. CREEKS...
STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

ROUTE B AT WILLIAMS CREEK SOUTHEAST OF COLE CAMP...
ROUTE F AT COLE CAMP CREEK SOUTHWEST OF COLE CAMP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3832 9307 3834 9351 3852 9351
      3852 9347 3851 9346 3851 9330 3853 9330
      3854 9329

$$

SCHAUMANN

172 
WGUS73 KSGF 261155
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
655 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

MOC015-261203-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-150626T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BENTON MO-
655 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 700 AM CDT FOR NORTHERN
BENTON COUNTY...

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY 
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 3853 9307 3832 9307 3834 9351 3852 9351
      3852 9347 3851 9346 3851 9330 3853 9330
      3854 9329

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1200 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)

The summertime high was breaking down over the southern Plains
this afternoon as zonal westerlies were sagging deeper into
Missouri.

A surface front was positioned over northern Missouri. South of
this feature across the Ozarks, temperatures were once again
warming into the lower 90s, as dew points were in the lower 70s.
This created humid and uncomfortable weather across the region.

The chances for pulse thunderstorms are very low this afternoon.
The 12Z RAOB measured a very dry airmass through the mid levels,
which will mitigate updrafts from maturing into deep convection.

For tonight, it will be warm and muggy while most locations
remains dry. Locations along and north of Highway 54 will
experience increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

This complex of storms will impact much of central and northern
Missouri tonight, creating a risk for flooding for areas north of
Highway 54. Therefore a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
Benton, Morgan, Miller, and Maries counties through Friday
morning.

Not much southward movement in these storms are expected Friday
morning, however, by Friday afternoon, models suggest that a mid
level speed max will approach from the northwest, forcing a cold
front to sweep southern Missouri. This will occur as afternoon
heating is taking place, providing sufficient instability for
robust thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

With deep layer shear increasing to around 30 to 35 knots, several
organized storms are expected. -20 levels will be quite high, so
the primary risk with the stronger storms Friday will be damaging
wind gusts up to 65 mph.

Locations along and south of Interstate 44 will experience the
better chances for severe storms tomorrow.

Most if not all of this rain will exit south of the Ozarks by
midnight Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)

A major pattern change will have occurred as the weekend unfolds
on Saturday and Sunday. The Ozarks will be positioned underneath
deep northwest flow, bringing a cooler and drier airmass to the
area.

Look for dry weather with afternoon highs only in the upper 70s
and lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday. This will be a great
weekend for outdoor activities.

By Sunday night, the GFS has a strong signal for another frontal
passage. This feature should trigger showers and thunderstorms
that will linger into Monday morning. However, most of Monday will
be nice with highs in the low to mid 80s.

From Tuesday on, northwest flow continues as a series of weak
disturbances migrate through. Anyone of these features could
trigger showers or scattered thunderstorms.

As we draw closer to the 4th of July weekend, it appears as though
a low level frontal system will be stalled out either directly
over or near the Ozarks Region. This will be a focus for daily
showers and thunderstorms.

A stormy pattern could evolve into that holiday weekend forecast
so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

Increasingly unsettled weather will move over the region during
the next 12 to 18 hours. A cold front off to the northwest will
eventually move southeast and deliver a few rounds of showers and
storms. Have moved up the timing of this activity by a couple of
hours, otherwise there was little change to the previous forecast.
MVFR conditions (and possibly IFR) are expected with showers. Once
the front clears, winds will shift to the northwest and skies will
gradually clear. At this time, VFR conditions are expected from
late Friday afternoon through Friday evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR MOZ055>058.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Gagan

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
840 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-270145-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
840 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED HAIL RISK.
  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT THAT WILL
SHIFT FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 70 TO THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAIN COULD POSE
A FLOOD RISK FOR MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN...AND BENTON COUNTIES.

ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NEBRASKA WILL
LIKELY ENTER PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING. SOME STORM
REDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH MORE LIMITED CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
 NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN