River Flood Warning 31, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
930 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY... THEN STALL OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WITH
A SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM WEDNESDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS
NORTHEAST OVER THE MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE PARENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST (IA-WI)... BUT
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT FROM
TENNESSEE. A LINGERING BUT WEAKENING CAD WEDGE BOUNDARY REMAINED
OVER THE FAR NW PIEDMONT/NORTHERN FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL INTO THE
60S WITH EVEN 70S IN THE EAST BEFORE THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE LINE
MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS EVENING MAKING IT MORE STABLE IN THE
EAST.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN TN/AL... HOWEVER... OUR EARLIER THREAT WITH A SLIGHT
RISK IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HAS LESSENED. GIVEN THE
FRONT TO THE WEST WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL NEAR THE MOUNTAINS... THE
AIR MASS IN OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE INITIAL CONVECTION... AND WITH THE LONG NIGHTTIME
STABILIZATION... WILL ALLOW THE NEXT COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT TO
COME WITH A LESS OF A WIND THREAT. AGAIN... INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
NEARLY ELIMINATED AND THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST.

THEREFORE... A COUPLE MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT... WITH RAINFALL BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. SOME OF THE RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED IN OUR WESTERN AREAS CURRENTLY
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. QPF OF 0.25 TO 0.50 ADDITIONALLY IS
FORECAST EAST... WITH 0.50 TO 1 INCH IN THE WEST. LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG/NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE WATCH AREA.

CATEGORICAL POP OVERNIGHT FOR SHOWERS/ISO THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
HOLDING NEARLY STEADY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

SEVERAL RIVERS CONTINUE TO BE IN MINOR FLOOD... AND THE RIVER
STATEMENTS/WARNINGS WILL BE UPDATED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD AGAIN ON
THURSDAY....WITH RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT RUNS INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARMER
AIRMASS ALOFT.  SCATTERED SHOWER OR AN ISOLATES STORMS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 73-80 NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  LOWS CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRI-SUN NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC
CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO CANADA TONIGHT/THURSDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT(APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT)
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE PARENT WAVE/LOW...THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN...SLOW DOWN AND ASSUME A MORE WSW-ENE
ORIENTATION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OVER THE VIRGINIAS ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO TEXAS. CONSEQUENTLY...AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
NC. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING CONFINED TO SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) FLOW ALOFT...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON.

MON-WED: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO
AVERY ACTIVE/COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA.
AS A RESULT...FORECAST SPECIFICS (TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES/
TIMING) ARE DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME.BROADLY SPEAKING...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH POSSIBLY DECREASING
TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE-WED. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM WEDNESDAY...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST... WITH LOWER CIGS (IFR
TO LIFR)IN THE WEST. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL REDUCE VSBYS MOSTLY INTO
THE MVFR RANGE... WITH FOG COMBINING WITH THE PERIODS OF RAIN TO
REDUCE VSBYS INTO THE LIFR RANGE IN THE AREAS AROUND KINT/KGSO.
SW WINDS AROUND 10KT EXPECTED.

SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS
LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR AGAIN IN THE EAST. VSBYS SHOULD
REMAIN MVFR TO VFR IN THE EAST.

SOME SMALL IMPROVEMENTS WILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST ON
THURSDAY AS CIGS SHOULD BECOME MVFR AND VSBYS VFR. THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WITH DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY
THROUGH THE THIS WEEKEND... PERIODS OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AREA RECORD MAXIMUMS AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 24TH
AND 25TH. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GREENSBORO AREA SINCE
1903... IN THE RALEIGH AREA SINCE 1887... AND IN THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA SINCE 1910.

DEC 24:       RECORD MAXIMUM   HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO    71 (1964)        52 (1904)
RALEIGH       75 (1931)        59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE  78 (1931)        66 (1990)

DEC 25:       RECORD MAXIMUM   HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO    74 (1955)        58 (1932)
RALEIGH       75 (1955)        63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE  79 (1932)        68 (1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...BADGETT
CLIMATE...RAH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
707 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ088-089-240100-
CUMBERLAND NC-SAMPSON NC-
707 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EST...

AT 706 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JEROME...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...ROSEBORO...STEDMAN...NEWTON GROVE...SALEMBURG...TURKEY...
AUTRYVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...HOBBTON AND BUSHY LAKE NATURAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7849 3485 7875 3498 7882 3527 7849
      3526 7841 3529 7830 3522 7824 3520 7816
      3509 7817 3507 7816 3494 7815 3484 7843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 237DEG 38KT 3487 7868

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
729 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ089-240115-
SAMPSON NC-
729 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SAMPSON
COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EST...

AT 728 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...ROSEBORO...SALEMBURG AND HOBBTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7855 3491 7854 3491 7856 3494 7857
      3495 7860 3498 7863 3526 7828 3522 7824
      3521 7818 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3504 7816 3488 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 235DEG 35KT 3497 7854

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
801 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ078-089-240200-
WAYNE NC-SAMPSON NC-
801 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EST...

AT 800 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF MOUNT OLIVE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...MOUNT OLIVE...WALNUT CREEK...SEVEN SPRINGS...BROGDEN...
MAR-MAC...GRANTHAM...CLIFFS OF THE NEUSE STATE PARK...HOBBTON AND
ELROY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3521 7783 3516 7796 3519 7802
      3518 7807 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3503 7827 3519 7839 3551 7783 3543 7783
      3540 7780 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 239DEG 26KT 3516 7825

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
819 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POLKTON                 35.01N  80.20W
12/23/2015                   ANSON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ONGOING ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING NEAR
            POLKTON AND ANSONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1501025

SEC