River Flood Warning 29, NWS Raleigh, NC

527 
WGUS82 KRAH 241018
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015





...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Haw River At Haw River affecting Alamance County

  Rocky River Near Norwood affecting Anson and Stanly Counties

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina..
  Deep River At Moncure affecting Chatham and Lee Counties

  Cape Fear River At Lillington affecting Harnett County

  Haw River Near Bynum affecting Chatham County

  Lower Little River At Manchester affecting Cumberland County

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC037-105-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-151225T1840Z/
/MONN7.1.ER.151223T1930Z.151224T1200Z.151225T0640Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Deep River At Moncure.
* At  3:45 AM Thursday the stage was 11.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage late tonight.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, Flooding will occur upstream of the gage site along 
  North Plank Road, especially just south of Highway 421 in Lee county, and 
  on R Jordan Road in Chatham county. Road closures may result. At the gage site, 
  flooding of pasture and woods along the river will occur.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon  

Cape Fear
  Moncure      9  11.1 Thu 04 AM    11.1   7.6   4.1   3.5   3.5


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 150.00

       
&&

LAT...LON 3567 7910 3563 7907 3559 7904 3546 7935
          3554 7939                   

$$

NCC085-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0030.000000T0000Z-151226T1418Z/
/LLLN7.1.ER.151224T0515Z.151225T0000Z.151226T0218Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Cape Fear River At Lillington.
* At  4:30 AM Thursday the stage was 15.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.8 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage tomorrow late 
  evening.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Water may enter homes on Riverside Hills Drive, and
  the storm drains on the north bank are inundated.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon  

Cape Fear
  Lillington  14  15.0 Thu 04 AM    17.4  17.0  12.0   9.6   8.8


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 104.60
     

&&

LAT...LON 3549 7885 3537 7867 3525 7865 3526 7876
          3532 7877 3543 7892         

$$

NCC001-242218-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0031.000000T0000Z-151225T0613Z/
/HAWN7.1.ER.151224T0435Z.151224T1200Z.151224T1813Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River At Haw River.
* At  4:30 AM Thursday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall below flood stage this afternoon.
* Impact...At 19.0 feet, Overflow will occur on both banks at the water
  treatment plant, with the the most overflow on the right 
  bank opposite the water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   

Haw River
  Haw River   18  18.6 Thu 04 AM    18.3  13.5   9.9   7.4   6.0


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 471.69
     

&&

LAT...LON 3624 7953 3613 7934 3590 7918 3585 7930
          3604 7944 3613 7954         

$$

NCC037-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-151225T2320Z/
/BYNN7.1.ER.151223T1355Z.151224T0846Z.151225T1120Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Haw River Near Bynum.
* At  4:31 AM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet, The river widens up to 600 feet across, but 
  flooding remains confined to extensive stretches of woods and 
  pastureland along the river.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Haw River
  Bynum       11  14.3 Thu 05 AM    14.3  10.9   8.6   7.3   6.5


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 283.31
      

&&

LAT...LON 3590 7918 3582 7911 3576 7905 3569 7916
          3585 7930                   

$$

NCC051-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0026.151224T1200Z-151227T1617Z/
/MANN7.1.ER.151224T1200Z.151225T1200Z.151227T0417Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Lower Little River At Manchester.
* until Sunday morning, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:45 AM Thursday the stage was 16.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage today
  and continue to rise to near 21 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday night.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Minor flooding occurs in Fort Bragg, near the 
  water treatment plant. The water may also approach Manchester Road near
  the Fort Bragg water treatment plant.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon  

Lower Little River
  Manchester  18  16.3 Thu 05 AM    18.0  21.2  19.8  17.1  14.9


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 122.16
       

&&

LAT...LON 3524 7890 3522 7889 3517 7898 3516 7910
          3519 7910 3521 7898         

$$

NCC101-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0027.000000T0000Z-151225T2200Z/
/CLYN7.1.ER.151223T2125Z.151224T1800Z.151225T1000Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  4:15 AM Thursday the stage was 10.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 11 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road will flood.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
  Clayton      9  10.8 Thu 04 AM    10.7   8.8   6.4   4.4   3.2


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 128.41
    
    
&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-242218-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0025.000000T0000Z-151227T0051Z/
/SMFN7.1.ER.151223T1837Z.151225T0000Z.151226T1251Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  4:15 AM Thursday the stage was 17.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 17.6 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15  17.4 Thu 04 AM    17.4  17.3  15.1  12.2   9.3


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 99.26
      

&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC007-167-242218-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151225T0154Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.151224T0048Z.151224T0430Z.151224T1354Z.NO/
518 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rocky River Near Norwood.
* At  4:30 AM Thursday the stage was 20.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. There is significant 
  overflow into adjacent pasture and lowlands.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon 

Rocky River
  Norwood     20  20.4 Thu 04 AM    20.7  10.7   5.6   4.2   3.6


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage: 212.91
      

&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

684 
WGUS82 KRAH 241149
FLSRAH


FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
649 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015





...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Rocky River Near Norwood affecting Anson and Stanly Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC007-167-241219-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0029.000000T0000Z-151225T0154Z/
/NRWN7.1.ER.151224T0048Z.151224T0430Z.151224T1045Z.NO/
649 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Rocky River Near Norwood.
* At  6:30 AM Thursday the stage was 19.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* fell below flood stage at  5:45 AM Thursday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 10.7 feet by tomorrow
  morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Minor flood stage. There is significant 
  overflow into adjacent pasture and lowlands.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   

Rocky River
  Norwood     20  19.7 Thu 06 AM    19.5  10.7   5.6   4.2   3.6


To convert the above stage readings to above mean sea level (ft), add
the following to the stage:



        Norwood:        212.91
       


&&

LAT...LON 3525 8027 3521 8015 3519 8004 3511 8009
          3515 8028                   

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
302 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL NC
TODAY WILL SLOWLY WASH OUT AND GIVE WAY TO UNSEASONABLY WARM AND
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH CHRISTMAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX PW OF 1.8 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS OF 14-15C...CONTINUES AROUND
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A WEDGE
FRONT IS HOLDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE NC WESTERN PIEDMONT AND
INTO UPSTATE SC...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE NEARLY OVERWHELMED BY
AND INLAND PENETRATING COASTAL WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT AND LEADING
EDGE OF WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR...WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG NOW IN
THE COASTAL PLAIN.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG AT 45-50KT AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS ACCORDINGLY INCREASING WITH DESTABILIZATION.
LOW-LEVEL IS ENHANCED BY A 40KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE WIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...AND
SHERBE VALUES ARE PROGGED AROUND 1 THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOWLY VEERING TO MORE
SOUTHERLY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL...WITH STRONG HELICITY SHIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA. GOING AGAINST THE SEVERE THREAT IS A GENERAL LACK OF A
FOCUS...AS WITH A MCV OVER GA THIS MORNING NOW LIFTING INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  REGIONAL RADAR INDICATES A WEAK OUTFLOW/WIND-
SHIFT MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH SC...WITH A FEW WEAK LEWP'S
ALREADY SHOWING UP ALONG THE LINE...BUT ITS UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL
HOLD TOGETHER OR STRENGTHEN AS IT HITS A LITTLE BETTER AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL NC.

THE INGREDIENTS FOR CONVECTION...LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...ARE
PRESENT BUT TO VARYING DEGREES...AND NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ISN'T
OFFERING MUCH HELP.  THE SEVERE THREAT ISN'T TREMENDOUS GIVEN THAT
UPDRAFTS WON'T BE VERY STRONG...BUT A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS COULD
STILL PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO THIS EVENING.

THE FLOODING THREAT...WHILE IT HASN'T MATERIALIZED IN THE
WEST...BUT THE LARGE AREA OF PRECIP...INCREASINGLY CONVECTIVE
LOOKING...OVER WESTERN NC AND UPSTATE SC WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  BASED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE SC...THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT MAY BE UNDER THE MOST
THREAT BASED ON ANTECEDENT AND IMPENDING RAINFALL.  IN
ADDITION...A FEW RIVERS...INCLUDING THE ROCKY RIVER AND HAW
RIVER...ARE EITHER EXPERIENCING MINOR FLOODING OR FORECAST TO FLOOD.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE AS IS...BUT INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS SHOULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA.

TONIGHT...
WHAT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHEAST APPEARS TO BE A LAST
GASP OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEFORE PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
MOUNTAINS.  WILL TREND POPS DOWN TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.  WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 10KT OR SO TONIGHT AND LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRATUS WILL COVER THE AREA AGAIN AND LOWS WILL
BE ALMOST MUGGY IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...

THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD AGAIN ON
THURSDAY....WITH RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED WITH A CONTINUED MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW.  A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
MOUNTAINS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A CONVECTIVE LINE THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOSTLY DISSIPATE AS IT RUNS INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARMER
AIRMASS ALOFT.  SCATTERED SHOWER OR AN ISOLATES STORMS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN.  HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM 73-80 NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  LOWS CHRISTMAS EVE WILL BE IN
THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...

FRI-SUN NIGHT: A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC
CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO CANADA TONIGHT/THURSDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT(APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST TONIGHT)
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE PARENT WAVE/LOW...THE FRONT
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN...SLOW DOWN AND ASSUME A MORE WSW-ENE
ORIENTATION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU
NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL STALL NORTH
OF CENTRAL NC IN A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OVER THE VIRGINIAS ON
FRI/FRI NIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW
ENGLAND AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY EAST FROM THE DESERT SW INTO TEXAS. CONSEQUENTLY...AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
NC. HOWEVER...WITH FORCING CONFINED TO SMALL AMPLITUDE WAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL (SW) FLOW ALOFT...IT MAY BE DIFFICULT
FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD/SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON.

MON-WED: UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY IN THIS PERIOD DUE TO
AVERY ACTIVE/COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE OVER NORTH AMERICA.
AS A RESULT...FORECAST SPECIFICS (TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES/
TIMING) ARE DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME.BROADLY SPEAKING...PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH POSSIBLY DECREASING
TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUE-WED. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM WEDNESDAY...

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  A WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA WILL
LIFT CEILINGS TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE EAST...MOST LIKELY AT
KFAY/KRWI...WITH LOWER CEILINGS IN THE LIFR/IFR CEILINGS TO HANG ON
AT KGSO/KINT.  WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT...MAINLY AT
KRDU/KRWI/KFAY...A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS WITH HEAVY RAIN.  SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS LIKELY TO LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR AGAIN.
SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES FOG...BUT WINDS WILL STAY UP IN THE 8-12KT
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP VSBYS AT LEAST 3SM.  SOME SMALL
IMPROVEMENTS WIN CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH LESS PRECIP COVERAGE...THOUGH IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...WITH DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING THIS
WEEKEND...PERIODS OF POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AREA RECORD MAXIMUMS AND HIGH MINIMUMS FOR DECEMBER 24TH
AND 25TH. RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE GREENSBORO AREA SINCE
1903... IN THE RALEIGH AREA SINCE 1887... AND IN THE FAYETTEVILLE
AREA SINCE 1910.

DEC 24:       RECORD MAXIMUM   HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO    71 (1964)        52 (1904)
RALEIGH       75 (1931)        59 (1891)
FAYETTEVILLE  78 (1931)        66 (1990)

DEC 25:       RECORD MAXIMUM   HIGH MINIMUM
GREENSBORO    74 (1955)        58 (1932)
RALEIGH       75 (1955)        63 (1932)
FAYETTEVILLE  79 (1932)        68 (1932)

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...2
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...22
CLIMATE...HARTFIELD/BLAES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-084-240945-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-ANSON-
RICHMOND-
440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-240945-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-
EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
440 AM EST WED DEC 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TODAY MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG US HIGHWAY 1. THE MAIN THREAT IS
DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
532 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ007-008-232330-
PERSON NC-GRANVILLE NC-
532 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PERSON AND NORTHERN
GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 530 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROUGEMONT...OR 8 MILES
EAST OF PROSPECT HILL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROXBORO...STOVALL...MAYO RESERVOIR...BEREA...OAK HILL...SURL...BETHEL
HILL AND BUSHY FORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3654 7860 3642 7853 3624 7886 3624 7915
      3632 7915 3654 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2230Z 230DEG 44KT 3627 7905

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
541 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ075>077-085-086-088-232345-
SCOTLAND NC-CUMBERLAND NC-LEE NC-HOKE NC-MOORE NC-HARNETT NC-
541 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
SCOTLAND...CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN LEE...HOKE...EAST CENTRAL MOORE
AND HARNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EST...

AT 540 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF RAEFORD TO NEAR CLIO...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FAYETTEVILLE...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...LILLINGTON...FORT BRAGG...
ANGIER...MAXTON...POPE AFB...ANTIOCH AND HOPE MILLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 7951 3521 7931 3558 7892 3551 7869
      3549 7867 3485 7877 3483 7890 3490 7894
      3495 7904 3483 7919 3484 7935 3477 7933
      3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 245DEG 31KT 3507 7927 3459 7946

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
707 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ088-089-240100-
CUMBERLAND NC-SAMPSON NC-
707 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUMBERLAND AND SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM EST...

AT 706 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JEROME...OR 17 MILES NORTH OF
ELIZABETHTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...ROSEBORO...STEDMAN...NEWTON GROVE...SALEMBURG...TURKEY...
AUTRYVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...HOBBTON AND BUSHY LAKE NATURAL AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3485 7849 3485 7875 3498 7882 3527 7849
      3526 7841 3529 7830 3522 7824 3520 7816
      3509 7817 3507 7816 3494 7815 3484 7843
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 237DEG 38KT 3487 7868

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
729 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ089-240115-
SAMPSON NC-
729 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SAMPSON
COUNTY UNTIL 815 PM EST...

AT 728 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES WEST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLINTON...ROSEBORO...SALEMBURG AND HOBBTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3490 7855 3491 7854 3491 7856 3494 7857
      3495 7860 3498 7863 3526 7828 3522 7824
      3521 7818 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3504 7816 3488 7852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 235DEG 35KT 3497 7854

77

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
801 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

NCZ078-089-240200-
WAYNE NC-SAMPSON NC-
801 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WAYNE AND
NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EST...

AT 800 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES WEST OF MOUNT OLIVE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOLDSBORO...MOUNT OLIVE...WALNUT CREEK...SEVEN SPRINGS...BROGDEN...
MAR-MAC...GRANTHAM...CLIFFS OF THE NEUSE STATE PARK...HOBBTON AND
ELROY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
45 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE
EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITH THIS STORM. IF THE
STORM INTENSIFIES AND ROTATION STRENGTHENS...A WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3521 7783 3516 7796 3519 7802
      3518 7807 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816
      3503 7827 3519 7839 3551 7783 3543 7783
      3540 7780 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 239DEG 26KT 3516 7825

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
819 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLASH FLOOD      POLKTON                 35.01N  80.20W
12/23/2015                   ANSON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ONGOING ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO FLOODING NEAR
            POLKTON AND ANSONVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER RAH1501025

SEC