Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SEVERE STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD 30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WITH 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS
EXPAND EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND EVENTUALLY IN WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR ACTIVITY THAT MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST FROM THE EXISTING WATCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. MODEL QPFS ARE ALSO QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. WPC IS ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES UNLESS AMOUNTS BECOME
EXCESSIVE.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
A SEVERAL HOUR DRY PERIOD LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PUSH IN TO THE MID 70S...AND COULD DEVELOP STORMS AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THOSE STORMS AS WELL SINCE
RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ALONG AND AREA THAT GETS A CONSIDERABLE
SOAKING TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR FRIDAY
BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION THAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AT LEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND UNCERTAIN IF WE
WILL CONVECT ALONG IT...OR PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEN DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECTS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS/WIDESPREAD PCPN ACTIVITY
LIFTING ACROSS ERN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT TSRA TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING WITH SHRA THEN AFT MIDNIGHT TILL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 12Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LOW
END VFR CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ065-066-078-088-089-071245-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED YET TONIGHT.

NEZ016-017-030>034-042>045-050>053-067-068-090>093-071245-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-
DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-JOHNSON-
NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED YET TONIGHT.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015-018-071245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-WAYNE-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

DEWALD

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
850 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W FAIRBURY            40.14N 97.29W
05/06/2015                   JEFFERSON          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 TO 6 INCH TREE LIMBS BLOWN DOWN.

&&

VDEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
853 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HEAVY RAIN       TOBIAS                  40.42N 97.34W
05/06/2015  M3.00 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0852 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SWANTON                 40.38N 97.08W
05/06/2015  M3.10 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
908 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ051-052-066-067-070300-
DOUGLAS NE-CASS NE-LANCASTER NE-SAUNDERS NE-
908 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL CASS...WESTERN
DOUGLAS...NORTHEASTERN LANCASTER AND EASTERN SAUNDERS COUNTIES UNTIL
1000 PM CDT...

AT 908 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF GREENWOOD...OR 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN...
MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAHOO...VALLEY...YUTAN...WATERLOO...MEAD...CERESCO...DAVEY...
ITHACA...MEMPHIS...LESHARA...COLON...TWO RIVERS STATE RECREATION AREA
AND MEMPHIS STATE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 157 AND 167.
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 81 AND 108.
 HIGHWAY 92 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 452 AND 463...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 456 AND 463.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4095 9646 4099 9669 4139 9661 4139 9623
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 193DEG 34KT 4106 9655

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
917 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ066-067-089-070245-
CASS NE-GAGE NE-LANCASTER NE-
917 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CASS...NORTH CENTRAL GAGE
AND CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HALLAM...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...WAVERLY...ROCA...DENTON...DAVEY...SPRAGUE AND BLUESTEM
STATE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 48 AND 77.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 395 AND 412.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4051 9675 4066 9691 4099 9669 4095 9645
TIME...MOT...LOC 0216Z 209DEG 46KT 4063 9680

FOBERT