River Flood Warning 1, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SEVERE STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD 30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WITH 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS
EXPAND EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND EVENTUALLY IN WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR ACTIVITY THAT MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST FROM THE EXISTING WATCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. MODEL QPFS ARE ALSO QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. WPC IS ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES UNLESS AMOUNTS BECOME
EXCESSIVE.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
A SEVERAL HOUR DRY PERIOD LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PUSH IN TO THE MID 70S...AND COULD DEVELOP STORMS AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THOSE STORMS AS WELL SINCE
RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ALONG AND AREA THAT GETS A CONSIDERABLE
SOAKING TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR FRIDAY
BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION THAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AT LEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND UNCERTAIN IF WE
WILL CONVECT ALONG IT...OR PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEN DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECTS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS/WIDESPREAD PCPN ACTIVITY
LIFTING ACROSS ERN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT TSRA TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING WITH SHRA THEN AFT MIDNIGHT TILL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 12Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LOW
END VFR CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ065-066-078-088-089-071245-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED YET TONIGHT.

NEZ016-017-030>034-042>045-050>053-067-068-090>093-071245-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-
DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-JOHNSON-
NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED YET TONIGHT.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015-018-071245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-WAYNE-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

DEWALD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1043 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 E DENTON              40.74N 96.75W
05/06/2015  E4.60 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   PUBLIC

&&

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1048 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAVERLY                 40.92N 96.53W
05/06/2015                   LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            PARTS OF 144TH STREET FLOODED.

&&

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1057 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NW ROCA               40.70N 96.71W
05/06/2015                   LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER BUMPER DEEP OVER ROADWAY. VEHICLES
            STALLED IN ROADWAY.

1056 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSE SPRAGUE           40.57N 96.70W
05/06/2015                   LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 77. VEHICLE STALLED IN
            ROADWAY.

&&

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1100 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W LINCOLN             40.81N 96.71W
05/06/2015                   LANCASTER          NE   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CARS ARE BEGINNING TO FLOAT DUE TO DEEP
            WATER.

&&

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1110 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE LINCOLN            40.80N 96.66W
05/06/2015                   LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FEET OF WATER OVER ROAD.

&&

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1112 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1111 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SE LINCOLN            40.78N 96.65W
05/06/2015  M3.10 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
IRIS SYSTEM