River Flood Warning 11, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
640 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND IMPACT ON LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY HAD
HEAVY RAIN...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

ACTIVE EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING A TORNADO
IN JEFFERSON COUNTY AND VERY HEAVY RAIN INCLUDING A REPORT OF 8.97
INCHES AT SWANTON THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND 7.69 INCHES AT WILBER
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE 00Z H5 PATTERN SHOWED LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE OVER WASHINGTON STATE AND OREGON. AT H7...THERE
WAS A SPEED MAX OF 45KTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A POCKET OF H7
MOISTURE FROM NEBRASKA INTO KANSAS.  AT H85...THE GULF WAS OPEN WITH
+10 TO 15 DEG C DEWPOINTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS
DRIVEN BY A CORRIDOR OF 40KT SOUTH WINDS.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST LAST EVENING...WITH A SECOND
RIPPLE LIFTING THROUGH THE FLOW THIS MORNING. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DROPS SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA THEN MOVES TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY
12Z SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY 12Z
SUNDAY.

HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
WEAKENS...SO SHOULD THE STORMS.  THERE MAY BE ANOTHER WEAKER SPEED
MAX THAT COMES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE NAM/HIRES NMM HAVE
THIS...WHILE THE HI RES ARW/GFS IS DRY OR JUST IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  DRIER AIR DOES WORK INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...PWATS
REMAIN HIGH BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES.  DEPENDING ON THE
CLOUDCOVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE TO
1000-2500J/KG AND LI/S AROUND -4 TO -8.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND
25 TO 30KTS.  AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CONDITIONAL ON
HEATING TODAY.  SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE
SLIGHT RISK NOSING IN TOWARD JEFFERSON COUNTY.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PROBLEMATIC TOO IN REGARD TO HEAVY RAIN.  UNTIL WE
SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT...STORMS THAT FORM IN THE MOIST AIR WILL BE
CAPABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT...THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT IS SLOW...GENERALLY PUSHING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD FALLS CITY. INCLUDED HIGHER POPS
IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH SPOTTIER
PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ABOVE THE
SURFACE FRONT AND MOISTURE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GOING NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DRY AIR AND WEAKER FORCING
SHOULD LIFT THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION FARTHER NORTH. IMPACTS
OF THE APPROACHING TROF SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD FAIRBURY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CLOSED H5 LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE RAIN LIFTING NORTH AND THE DRY SLOT WORKING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD FAIRBURY. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE SOMETHING MONITOR WITH THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO AFFECT NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MONDAY
WITH SOME NEGATIVE H85 TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME TO ADD A MIX IF NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2015

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT TAF SITES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CIGS AT KLNK AND KOMA WILL PREVAIL...WITH MVFR CIGS AT
KOFK THROUGH 18Z. THEN A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH WILL TURN WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST BY 22Z AT KOFK...THEN KLNK AND KOMA SHORTLY AFTER
00Z. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH AT TAF SITE TO PRECLUDE
A MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DERGAN/ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
716 AM CDT THU MAY 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N VALLEY              41.33N 96.35W
05/07/2015  M2.10 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            24 HOUR RAINFALL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       OMAHA                   41.26N 96.01W
05/07/2015  M2.98 INCH       DOUGLAS            NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR RAINFALL - OMAHA - NORTHRIDGE DR AND TUCKER ST

&&

J-E.KLISH