Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
702 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

SEVERE STORMS HAVE FIRED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS
EASTWARD FROM A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA HAD 30 TO 60 METER HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH IT...COUPLED WITH A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WITH 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PW...SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS
EXPAND EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND EVENTUALLY IN WESTERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A TORNADO WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR ACTIVITY THAT MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST FROM THE EXISTING WATCH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA. MODEL QPFS ARE ALSO QUITE HEALTHY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. WPC IS ALSO CONCERNED
WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING OF STORMS LATER IN THE EVENING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS. FOR NOW WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES UNLESS AMOUNTS BECOME
EXCESSIVE.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT THE REGION. THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE
A SEVERAL HOUR DRY PERIOD LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PUSH IN TO THE MID 70S...AND COULD DEVELOP STORMS AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. STORMS THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN WITH THOSE STORMS AS WELL SINCE
RAINFALL WILL BE FALLING ALONG AND AREA THAT GETS A CONSIDERABLE
SOAKING TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THEN PUSHES SOUTH INTO KANSAS AND MISSOURI FOR FRIDAY
BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER
REGION THAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE FRONT
RANGE...WHICH INDUCES LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND ANOTHER WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER. RAIN LINGERS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AT LEAST. SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND UNCERTAIN IF WE
WILL CONVECT ALONG IT...OR PERHAPS AHEAD OF IT EAST OF OUR AREA.
THEN DEFORMATION/WRAP AROUND PRECIP AFFECTS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING MVFR CONDITIONS/WIDESPREAD PCPN ACTIVITY
LIFTING ACROSS ERN NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT UPPER
DISTURBANCE PASSING THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPECT TSRA TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THRU THIS EVENING WITH SHRA THEN AFT MIDNIGHT TILL
ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST MODELS INDICATE IFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KOMA/KLNK BTWN 12Z-14Z THURSDAY MORNING...THEN LOW
END VFR CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ065-066-078-088-089-071245-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.

THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING AND
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY
SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED YET TONIGHT.

NEZ016-017-030>034-042>045-050>053-067-068-090>093-071245-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-
DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-CASS-OTOE-JOHNSON-
NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STORMS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED YET TONIGHT.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015-018-071245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-WAYNE-
533 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STORMS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER LATER THURSDAY MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. MORE STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

DEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
633 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ065-078-088-070000-
JEFFERSON NE-SEWARD NE-SALINE NE-
633 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN SALINE...NORTHWESTERN
JEFFERSON AND SOUTHERN SEWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FRIEND...OR 23 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...FRIEND...BEAVER CROSSING...CORDOVA...
UTICA...GOEHNER.

OTHER STORMS MOVING OUT OF THAYER COUNTY COULD AFFECT LOCATIONS
AROUND AND NORTH OF TOBIAS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 369 AND
382.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 9719 4035 9737 4094 9734 4092 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 208DEG 29KT 4062 9730

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
702 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             1 S TOBIAS              40.40N 97.34W
05/06/2015  M0.75 INCH       SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

VDEWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
719 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ078-088-070100-
JEFFERSON NE-SALINE NE-
719 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SALINE AND NORTH
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 719 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WESTERN...OR 21 MILES WEST OF BEATRICE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRETE...WILBER...DE WITT...WESTERN...TOBIAS...SWANTON...WILLARD MEYER
RECREATION AREA...11 MILES WEST OF WILBER...SWAN CREEK WILDLIFE
MANAGEMENT AREA AND SWAN CREEK RESERVOIR NUMBER 2.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4046 9737 4069 9693 4038 9692 4021 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 229DEG 25KT 4039 9713

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
744 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTERN                 40.39N 97.20W
05/06/2015                   SALINE             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POLE SHED DESTROYED. 2 TO 3 INCH TREES BLOWN OVER.

&&

VDEWALD