Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

AN UPPER LOW THAT WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTN HAD A PERSISTENT W-WNW FLOW ACROSS MPX CWA TODAY. SEVERAL
CIRCULATIONS ARE NOTED IN THE SHEAR AXIS FROM ND TO CENTRAL
MN/NORTHERN WI. COLD POOLS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CIRCULATIONS
AND THE ADDED WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD/SCT SVR STORMS TO
ACROSS MAINLY WC WI MN THIS AFTN. EC MN/CENTRAL/WC WILL HAVE WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS BUT AS STRONG...WITH SW/SC MN LIKELY DRY DUE TO
WEAKER INSTABILITY AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE.

THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ROTATE E/SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT...TAKING THE SHEAR ZONE /SHORTWAVE/ SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN. AT
THE SFC...A COOL/DRY FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS NE MN...WILL MOVE SW INTO
CENTRAL MN/WC WI BY LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT/TROUGH MOVES TO THE
SW TUESDAY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE AFTN IN WC/SC MN. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NE WILL KEEP
WC WI MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EC
MN. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN WC WI...AND PARTS OF EC MN
AS THIS FRONT/TROUGH MOVES THRU.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE SUPPRESSION OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AS A TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WITH OVERALL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PERIODIC IMPULSES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION
AND BRING OCCASIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE DRY...BUT THEN A
TROUGH AND WARM FRONT LIFT TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE
SPLIT IN TWO BATCHES...ONE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE
SOUTH...LEAVING OUR AREA MAINLY DRY...BUT CONSISTENCY AND
CONTINUITY HAVE BEEN LOW.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT DRY DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...BUT
ANOTHER TROUGH FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AS WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S RANGE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HOWEVER...AS HIGHS MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS TIMING OF TSRA THIS AFTN AS A DISTURBANCE RIDES SE
ACROSS ND...AND INTO CENTRAL MN LATER THIS AFTN. INITIAL MVFR CIGS
IN EC MN/WC MN SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 19-20Z. OTHERWISE...BASED ON
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS...TSRA SHOULD BEGIN IN WC/CENTRAL MN ARND
20-21Z...AND SPREAD SE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLD SO KEPT VCTS
OR VCSH...AND NOT EXPECTING TEMPO/S BASED ON COVERAGE. SFC TROUGH
WILL MOVE SW ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND INTO CENTRAL MN/EC MN AND WC
WI BY TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SFC TROUGH LATER TONIGHT.

KMSP...

TSRA/S ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT TIMING AND
COVERAGE IS THE MAIN CONCERN. KEPT VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAF AFT
21Z...BUT AGAIN...ONCE TSRA DEVELOP WE CAN GET A BETTER IDEA ON
TIMING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH NW WINDS THIS AFTN...BECOMING N/NE
TUESDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA LATE. WINDS E-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.
THU...VFR/MVFR. CHANCE OF -TSRA. WINDS SE 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
335 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MNZ041>045-048>053-058>063-068>070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-142045-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-
SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-
WASHINGTON-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-GOODHUE-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-
PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
335 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

MNZ047-054>057-064>067-073>077-082>085-091>093-142045-
STEVENS-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-YELLOW MEDICINE-
RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-
WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
335 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN AT TIMES
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             2 NW MILLTOWN           45.54N 92.53W
07/13/2015  M0.50 INCH       POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
349 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

WIZ014-132130-
POLK-
349 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL POLK COUNTY...

AT 348 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CUSHING...OR 27 MILES
EAST OF CAMBRIDGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...CENTURIA...MILLTOWN...CUSHING...RANGE...WOLF
CREEK AND WILD RIVER STATE PARK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4546 9220 4529 9239 4553 9273 4556 9276
      4557 9276 4564 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 310DEG 27KT 4554 9267

DWE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLTOWN                45.53N 92.51W
07/13/2015                   POLK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 FOOT DIAMETER DOWN ON HOUSE.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
404 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             MILLTOWN                45.53N 92.50W
07/13/2015  M0.88 INCH       POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
418 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             2 SW BALSAM LAKE        45.43N 92.49W
07/13/2015  E0.88 INCH       POLK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL BRANCHES DOWN

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
436 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

WIZ025-027-028-132215-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-
436 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
CHIPPEWA...EASTERN DUNN AND WESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

AT 435 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER HOFFMAN HILLS REC
AREA...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF MENOMONIE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EAU CLAIRE...MENOMONIE...CHIPPEWA FALLS...ALTOONA...LAKE HALLIE...
LAKE WISSOTA...COLFAX...ELK MOUND...WHEELER...TAINTER LAKE...HOFFMAN
HILLS REC AREA AND CARYVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 41 AND
73.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4485 9196 4518 9201 4508 9160 4489 9126
      4465 9147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 303DEG 26KT 4495 9173

DWE