Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

A VERY ACTIVE 6-12 HR PERIOD EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING EXPLOSIVE FOR TSRA IN WC MN AS OF 3 PM. A FEW STORMS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN FARGO ND AND ALEXANDRIA MN WHICH IS
THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN FOR SVR WX LATER THIS AFTN. /SPC ALREADY
IN THE WORKS ON A SVR WATCH/ ALTHOUGH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THIS EVENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE AREA STILL A FEW
SVR WX ELEMENTS THAT NEED TO WORKOUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
SUPERCELL AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A BOW ECHO SEGMENT THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS /CAMS/ AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST INDICATED THE AREA NEAR FARGO WILL MOVE E-SE
ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHILE ANOTHER AREA
DEVELOPS IN SW/SC MN WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR NEARLY
NO INHIBITION AND THE ADDED SFC BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOW ECHO MOVING E/SE ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA AFT MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE SVR WX SHOULD BE IN
WISCONSIN/IOWA. FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF SVR WX IF ANY
TRAINING OF THE STORMS DEVELOP IN WC/CENTRAL MN BEFORE THE MAIN
BOW ECHO SEGMENT MOVES TO THE SE. AM THINKING THAT ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TRAINING SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ISSUING A FFA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ASIDE FROM A PASSING RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE REGION TUE
NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SUPPRESSION OF
CONVECTION FOR THAT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS
FCST PKG WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-40 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR EACH DAY.

A SECONDARY TROF AXIS ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW OF TDA WILL AID IN KEEPING SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...FOR MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG. STORM STRENGTH WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF UPR LVL SUPPORT. PRECIP WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE MRNG AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE ARRIVES...MAKING
FOR A MAINLY DRY TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT PERIOD. POPS RETURN LATE
WED NIGHT THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
FLATTENS OUT WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE EWD THRU THE FLOW.
IN ADDITION...A FEW MEANDERING SFC FRONTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THE CONTINUED DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THESE
NONDESCRIPT FEATURES WILL FORCE MENTION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE NO PRONOUNCED FEATURES WILL ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES AS A MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS RATHER LOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEYOND MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THRU MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S...SO STILL WARM BUT NOT OVERLY
SO. ALSO...LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS NEAR KAXN ARE STARTING TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KRWF THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. KRWF MAY HAVE STORMS
DEVELOP IN THEIR VICINITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45
KNOTS AS THE STORM MOVE THROUGH...SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THIS COMPLEX STARTS MOVING SE. THIS WOULD
PRIMARILY BE FROM KSTC ON SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND
INTO WESTERN WI. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELD AROUND
03Z. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AS THE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. QUITE OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG NE.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>060-
     062-064>069-073>076-082>084-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131730-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE HEAT THREAT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 95 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND BETWEEN 90 AND 95 IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND IN FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON TODAY. PLAN AHEAD AND STAY SAFE
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
746 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0724 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE GARFIELD           45.96N 95.46W
07/12/2015                   DOUGLAS            MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES DOWN

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
750 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BERTHA                  46.27N 95.06W
07/12/2015                   TODD               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEWITT                  46.32N 95.09W
07/12/2015                   TODD               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0648 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLARISSA                46.13N 94.95W
07/12/2015                   TODD               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

0654 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BROWERVILLE             46.09N 94.87W
07/12/2015                   TODD               MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
816 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WNW BRANDON             45.97N 95.60W
07/12/2015                   DOUGLAS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN EVENT TIME 1900-1930 CDT

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
824 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 W ALEXANDRIA          45.88N 95.49W
07/12/2015                   DOUGLAS            MN   PUBLIC

            PINE TREES UP ROOTED

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
833 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             2 S VILLARD             45.68N 95.27W
07/12/2015  M0.50 INCH       POPE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
840 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ041-042-048-049-130215-
STEARNS-DOUGLAS-POPE-TODD-
840 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

STEARNS...DOUGLAS...POPE...TODD...

AT 840 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER KENSINGTON...OR OVER ALEXANDRIA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALEXANDRIA...SAUK CENTRE...MELROSE...GLENWOOD...OSAKIS...LOWRY...
KENSINGTON...LAKE OSAKIS...LITTLE SAUK...ROUND PRAIRIE...VILLARD AND
NELSON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND
135.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4604 9490 4566 9481 4562 9546 4576 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 312DEG 0KT 4581 9525

JLT