Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
658 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

A VERY ACTIVE 6-12 HR PERIOD EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING EXPLOSIVE FOR TSRA IN WC MN AS OF 3 PM. A FEW STORMS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN FARGO ND AND ALEXANDRIA MN WHICH IS
THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN FOR SVR WX LATER THIS AFTN. /SPC ALREADY
IN THE WORKS ON A SVR WATCH/ ALTHOUGH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THIS EVENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE AREA STILL A FEW
SVR WX ELEMENTS THAT NEED TO WORKOUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
SUPERCELL AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A BOW ECHO SEGMENT THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS /CAMS/ AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST INDICATED THE AREA NEAR FARGO WILL MOVE E-SE
ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHILE ANOTHER AREA
DEVELOPS IN SW/SC MN WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR NEARLY
NO INHIBITION AND THE ADDED SFC BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOW ECHO MOVING E/SE ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA AFT MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE SVR WX SHOULD BE IN
WISCONSIN/IOWA. FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF SVR WX IF ANY
TRAINING OF THE STORMS DEVELOP IN WC/CENTRAL MN BEFORE THE MAIN
BOW ECHO SEGMENT MOVES TO THE SE. AM THINKING THAT ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TRAINING SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ISSUING A FFA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ASIDE FROM A PASSING RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE REGION TUE
NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SUPPRESSION OF
CONVECTION FOR THAT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS
FCST PKG WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-40 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR EACH DAY.

A SECONDARY TROF AXIS ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW OF TDA WILL AID IN KEEPING SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...FOR MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG. STORM STRENGTH WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF UPR LVL SUPPORT. PRECIP WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE MRNG AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE ARRIVES...MAKING
FOR A MAINLY DRY TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT PERIOD. POPS RETURN LATE
WED NIGHT THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
FLATTENS OUT WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE EWD THRU THE FLOW.
IN ADDITION...A FEW MEANDERING SFC FRONTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THE CONTINUED DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THESE
NONDESCRIPT FEATURES WILL FORCE MENTION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE NO PRONOUNCED FEATURES WILL ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES AS A MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS RATHER LOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEYOND MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THRU MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S...SO STILL WARM BUT NOT OVERLY
SO. ALSO...LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

A COMPLEX OF SEVERE STORMS NEAR KAXN ARE STARTING TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT ALL BUT KRWF THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. KRWF MAY HAVE STORMS
DEVELOP IN THEIR VICINITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIND GUSTS OF 45
KNOTS AS THE STORM MOVE THROUGH...SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 60 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE ONCE THIS COMPLEX STARTS MOVING SE. THIS WOULD
PRIMARILY BE FROM KSTC ON SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES AND
INTO WESTERN WI. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AIRFIELD AROUND
03Z. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 KNOTS AS THE STORMS MOVE
THROUGH ALONG WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. QUITE OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG NE.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ047>049-054>060-
     062-064>069-073>076-082>084-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131730-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE HEAT THREAT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 95 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND BETWEEN 90 AND 95 IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND IN FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON TODAY. PLAN AHEAD AND STAY SAFE
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

JLT

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