Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1247 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

A VERY ACTIVE 6-12 HR PERIOD EXPECTED AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING EXPLOSIVE FOR TSRA IN WC MN AS OF 3 PM. A FEW STORMS
ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN FARGO ND AND ALEXANDRIA MN WHICH IS
THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN FOR SVR WX LATER THIS AFTN. /SPC ALREADY
IN THE WORKS ON A SVR WATCH/ ALTHOUGH WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING
THIS EVENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE AREA STILL A FEW
SVR WX ELEMENTS THAT NEED TO WORKOUT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW
SUPERCELL AND THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A BOW ECHO SEGMENT THIS
EVENING. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS /CAMS/ AND THEIR ASSOCIATED
REFLECTIVITY FORECAST INDICATED THE AREA NEAR FARGO WILL MOVE E-SE
ACROSS WC/CENTRAL MN DURING THE LATE AFTN...WHILE ANOTHER AREA
DEVELOPS IN SW/SC MN WHERE DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR NEARLY
NO INHIBITION AND THE ADDED SFC BOUNDARY MOVING EASTWARD IN THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOW ECHO MOVING E/SE ACROSS OUR CWA. THERE COULD BE LINGERING
SHRA/TSRA AFT MIDNIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE SVR WX SHOULD BE IN
WISCONSIN/IOWA. FLASH FLOODING IS ANOTHER ASPECT OF SVR WX IF ANY
TRAINING OF THE STORMS DEVELOP IN WC/CENTRAL MN BEFORE THE MAIN
BOW ECHO SEGMENT MOVES TO THE SE. AM THINKING THAT ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TRAINING SHOULD BE TEMPORARY...SO NOT ANTICIPATING
ISSUING A FFA TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

ASIDE FROM A PASSING RIDGE AXIS ATOP THE REGION TUE
NIGHT-WED NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SUPPRESSION OF
CONVECTION FOR THAT 24-36 HOUR PERIOD...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS
FCST PKG WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-40 PERCENT POPS FOR
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR EACH DAY.

A SECONDARY TROF AXIS ROUNDING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE DEPARTING
UPR LVL LOW OF TDA WILL AID IN KEEPING SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE
AREA...MAINLY OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA...FOR MON NIGHT
INTO TUE MRNG. STORM STRENGTH WILL BE RATHER WEAK DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEPARTURE OF UPR LVL SUPPORT. PRECIP WILL
SHIFT OFF TO THE E TUE MRNG AS THE UPR LVL RIDGE ARRIVES...MAKING
FOR A MAINLY DRY TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT PERIOD. POPS RETURN LATE
WED NIGHT THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS THE UPR LVL FLOW
FLATTENS OUT WHILE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE EWD THRU THE FLOW.
IN ADDITION...A FEW MEANDERING SFC FRONTS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
CENTRAL-NRN PLAINS WHICH WILL DRIFT INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY.
THE CONTINUED DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THESE
NONDESCRIPT FEATURES WILL FORCE MENTION OF SHWRS/TSTMS IN THE FCST
THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK. BECAUSE NO PRONOUNCED FEATURES WILL ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES AS A MAIN DRIVER OF CONVECTION...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
LOOKS RATHER LOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK BEYOND MONDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A COOLING TREND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THRU MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
DROP BACK TO THE UPR 70S TO MID 80S...SO STILL WARM BUT NOT OVERLY
SO. ALSO...LOWS WILL HOLD MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EAST OF KMSP AND KEAU EARLY
THIS MORNING. VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SE BY 08Z.
POCKETS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE NEAR KAXN...KSTC AND KRNH THROUGH
AROUND 08Z AS WELL. THEREAFTER THE MAIN CONCERN BECOMES MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS DUE TO THE VERY MOIST CONDITIONS. THE WI TERMINALS ARE AT
MOST RISK DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LIGHT WINDS. ANOTHER
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON...REACHING 20-25
KNOTS.

KMSP...WORST IS OVER FOR THE AIRFIELD WITH THE WINDS ALREADY
RETURNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. MAIN CONCERN IS MVFR
CEILINGS RETURNING DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THEM AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA RETURNS MONDAY AFTERNOON...NOT AS STRONG OR WIDESPREAD
AS TONIGHT/S.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS BCMG NE.
WED...VFR. SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E-SE 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
131730-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1218 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE HEAT THREAT.

VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING 95 TO 105 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND BETWEEN 90 AND 95 IN WESTERN
WISCONSIN. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HEAT ADVISORY FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND IN FAR
WESTERN WISCONSIN. VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE LATER ON TODAY. PLAN AHEAD AND STAY SAFE
LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1238 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1048 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW HOWARD LAKE        45.02N 94.10W
07/12/2015                   WRIGHT             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3 TREES DOWN. CROP DAMAGE CORN BLOWN DOWN CR 30SW.

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MNZ069-070-077-078-WIZ024-026-130645-
RICE-DAKOTA-SCOTT-GOODHUE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
1241 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN DAKOTA...EAST
CENTRAL SCOTT...GOODHUE...NORTHEASTERN RICE...SOUTHEASTERN PIERCE AND
PEPIN COUNTIES...

AT 1241 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALTOONA TO NEAR WACOUTA TO NEAR ELKO NEW
MARKET...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHFIELD...RED WING...LAKEVILLE...SAVAGE...PRIOR LAKE...
FARMINGTON...CANNON FALLS...PINE ISLAND...ZUMBROTA...DURAND...KENYON
AND GOODHUE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 76 AND 86.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LAT...LON 4459 9167 4459 9202 4441 9209 4445 9224
      4445 9243 4437 9243 4436 9255 4420 9256
      4419 9298 4474 9346 4461 9272 4469 9196
      4468 9173 4463 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0541Z 311DEG 32KT 4473 9150 4449 9243 4460 9330

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
115 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RICE LAKE               45.50N 91.74W
07/12/2015                   BARRON             WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE LARGE 2 FOOT TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN

&&

CLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MNZ049>051-130715-
STEARNS-SHERBURNE-BENTON-
123 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STEARNS...WESTERN
SHERBURNE AND SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 123 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER COLLEGEVILLE...OR 8
MILES WEST OF ST. CLOUD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. CLOUD...SARTELL...SAUK RAPIDS...BIG LAKE...WAITE PARK...ST.
JOSEPH...BECKER...COLLEGEVILLE...CLEARWATER...CLEAR LAKE...ORROCK AND
SANTIAGO.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND
178.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4555 9367 4531 9379 4534 9384 4534 9387
      4539 9392 4538 9396 4540 9399 4539 9401
      4542 9404 4541 9406 4556 9442 4568 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0623Z 294DEG 32KT 4558 9436

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
151 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     7 ESE COLFAX            44.96N 91.59W
07/13/2015  M66 MPH          CHIPPEWA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN

&&

CLF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
247 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

MNZ061>063-WIZ023-024-130845-
WASHINGTON-ANOKA-RAMSEY-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-
247 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN RAMSEY...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON...EAST CENTRAL ANOKA...NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND SOUTHERN
ST. CROIX COUNTIES...

AT 247 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LINO LAKES...OR 13
MILES NORTH OF ST. PAUL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HEAVY RAIN...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIVER FALLS...BLAINE...MAPLEWOOD...OAKDALE...SHOREVIEW...WHITE BEAR
LAKE...LINO LAKES...STILLWATER...HUGO...HUDSON...VADNAIS HEIGHTS AND
MOUNDS VIEW.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 254 AND 258.
 INTERSTATE 94 IN WISCONSIN BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 30.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4511 9321 4525 9311 4496 9214 4469 9232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0747Z 296DEG 44KT 4514 9307

JRB