Flash Flood Warning 64, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
716 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH KTUP AND KMEM THIS MORNING.
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES AS THE
MORNING CONTINUES. VCTS AND TSRA ARE PROBABLE AT ALL FOUR TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD DUE TO AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. THE HRRR KEEPS TSRA OVER THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE
DAY. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH TS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT IS LOW
AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE SOUTH.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE.
DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY... MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

PWB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MSZ016-017-023-024-031130-
LEE MS-CHICKASAW MS-ITAWAMBA MS-MONROE MS-
555 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL UNTIL 630 AM CDT FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...
MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...

AT 555 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WINDS TO 50 MPH WAS
LOCATED OVER EVERGREEN...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FULTON...MOVING
EAST AT 55 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO LIKELY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN LEE...NORTHEASTERN CHICKASAW...SOUTHERN
ITAWAMBA AND MONROE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3399 8886 3430 8847 3428 8818 3375 8825
      3375 8832 3372 8833
TIME...MOT...LOC 1055Z 289DEG 47KT 3416 8847