Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Memphis, TN

189 
WGUS74 KMEG 031319
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
819 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MSC027-071-107-119-135-161-031328-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0062.000000T0000Z-150703T1315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LAFAYETTE MS-YALOBUSHA MS-QUITMAN MS-COAHOMA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
PANOLA MS-
819 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL LAFAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN
YALOBUSHA...QUITMAN...EAST CENTRAL COAHOMA...NORTHEASTERN
TALLAHATCHIE AND PANOLA COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED IN THE SHORT TERM. ADDITIONAL HEAVY 
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

LAT...LON 3414 9058 3433 9065 3438 9060 3442 8970
      3409 8970

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
404 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE RECENT WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY...COURTESY OF AN
UNSEASONAL UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROF
CENTERED OVER IOWA. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AND LIFT EAST TO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILE A POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL
TROF AXIS DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS WILL AID IN AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT.
BY LATE THIS EVENING... THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY EXTEND ALONG
THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

SATURDAY WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT...AS THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROF IS SEPARATED
FROM ITS NORTHERN BRANCH COMPONENT. DAYTIME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL REMAIN WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH MS...IN IN THE VICINITY
OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. GFS PROGS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES...WITH WEAK DAYTIME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY WARM TO A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF NORMAL BY MIDWEEK...BUT WILL BE LOCALLY AFFECTED
BY SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-041030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... MAINLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO PARIS TENNESSEE.
DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY... MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1143 PM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             PIGGOTT                 36.38N 90.20W
07/02/2015  E0.88 INCH       CLAY               AR   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN PIGGOTT ALONG WITH 50 MPH WINDS WHICH
            KNOCKED DOWN SOME LIMBS AND SMALL PIECES OF SHINGLES FROM
            OLDER BUILDINGS.

&&

ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 AM CDT FRI JUL 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S PARAGOULD           36.01N 90.51W
07/03/2015                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            PICTURE ON TWITTER SHOWS FLOOD WATER UP TO THE KNEES OF A
            RESIDENT IN THE CARRIAGE HILLS SUBDIVISION SOUTH OF
            PARAGOULD.

&&

JPM