Severe Thunderstorm Warning 368, NWS Louisville, KY

162 
WWUS53 KLMK 240037
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

KYC183-240046-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0368.000000T0000Z-151224T0045Z/
OHIO KY-
637 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OHIO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3709 8690 3711 8689 3714 8693 3718 8692
      3718 8689 3721 8690 3725 8687 3725 8683
      3729 8682 3731 8676 3741 8658 3736 8653
      3739 8624 3722 8614 3678 8704 3706 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 258DEG 34KT 3744 8621 3701 8674 

$$

KYC031-061-085-141-227-240045-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0368.000000T0000Z-151224T0045Z/
WARREN KY-GRAYSON KY-LOGAN KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
637 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CST
FOR NORTHWESTERN WARREN...SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON...NORTHERN LOGAN...
BUTLER AND NORTHERN EDMONSON COUNTIES...

AT 636 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LEITCHFIELD TO 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RUSSELLVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...ANDERSON...CASEY...LEE...
LEWISBURG...ROCHESTER...WOODBURY...SADLER...COOPERSTOWN...QUALITY...
HUNTSVILLE...JERICO...PLEASANT HILL...RIVERSIDE...PROSPERITY...
HULDEVILLE...HOMER AND AGNES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...POST YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET YOUR
REPORT USING HASHTAG L...M...K...SPOTTER.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3709 8690 3711 8689 3714 8693 3718 8692
      3718 8689 3721 8690 3725 8687 3725 8683
      3729 8682 3731 8676 3741 8658 3736 8653
      3739 8624 3722 8614 3678 8704 3706 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 258DEG 34KT 3744 8621 3701 8674 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

EER

176 
WWUS53 KLMK 240046
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

KYC031-061-085-141-227-240055-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0368.000000T0000Z-151224T0045Z/
WARREN KY-GRAYSON KY-LOGAN KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-
646 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN WARREN...
SOUTHWESTERN GRAYSON...NORTHERN LOGAN...BUTLER AND NORTHERN EDMONSON
COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...

ANOTHER WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3709 8690 3711 8689 3714 8693 3718 8692
      3718 8689 3721 8690 3725 8687 3725 8683
      3729 8682 3731 8676 3741 8658 3736 8653
      3739 8624 3722 8614 3678 8704 3706 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 243DEG 42KT 3744 8621 3701 8674 

$$

EER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
636 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2015

...Severe Thunderstorms With Damaging Winds and Tornadoes Late This
Afternoon into this Evening...

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features a very amplified
ridge off the eastern seaboard, with a trough sliding into the
central CONUS.  Within this trough, a negatively-tilted shortwave/PV
anomaly was noted across portions of the Central Plains.  This will
slide into northeastern Canada through the period, helping to deepen
a surface low over the Upper Midwest and drag an associated cold
front through the Ohio Valley late tonight.

All focus is on the severe weather threat starting now in southern
IN, and likely to increase through the evening hours across the rest
of Kentucky. Despite virtually no breaks in the cloud cover,
temperatures have managed to climb into the mid and upper 60s across
the region. While a few locations may creep to 70 later this
afternoon/evening, think many areas will remain in the upper 60s.
Therefore, our destabilization will have to take place via low-level
moisture advection, which is ongoing across portions west TN.  Here,
dewpoints have risen into the mid 60s, which should advect northeast
into central KY this evening.  Therefore, despite limited insolation
today, think we will have enough to push SBCAPEs in the 300-700 J/kg
range, perhaps pushing 1000 J/kg across southern KY.

Low-level shear parameters are very impressive given good low-level
turning. Effective SRH values are in excess of 400 m2/s2 across
western TN/eastern AR. Therefore, any storm will have the ability to
rotate. The main complicating factor continues to be storm
mode/coverage, and the effect the current QLCS moving through
western KY/IL/IN will have on storm evolution this evening.  The
near term threat will come from this QLCS now pushing into southern
IN/northern KY. Damaging winds and a few weak tornadoes will be
possible with this activity as it pushes northeast.  There is some
question as to how far east into central KY this activity gets.  The
southern edge has recently slowed, thus do not expect it to cross
portions of central KY.

If indeed central KY remains in the clear from this first QLCS, then
attention will turn to the southwest.  Convection is beginning to
fill in across portions of western TN/eastern AR, where supercells
have begun to develop over the past hour or so within the exit
region of a 110-knot upper-level jet streak.  This activity should
rapidly push northeast into south-central KY this evening. Storm
mode with this round is a bit in question, but semi-discrete
supercells will be possible especially in areas west of I-65 and to
the south of where the current QLCS stalls.  Coordinated with SPC on
the Moderate Risk, thus like the current placement and the main
emphasis on damaging winds (some in excess of 70 mph) and isolated
tornadoes.  Any strong tornado threat will hinge on storm mode once
the convection makes it into southern KY, but a strong tornado
cannot be ruled out across the southwestern CWA given very low
LCLs (around 500m) and impressive low-level shear/helicities.

All this activity will race east and will likely be out of the area
by 5Z or so.  Cooler and drier air will lag the cold front, so
expect overnight lows to remain mild and highs on Thursday to still
climb into the 60s.
.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2015

...Active Weather Continues Into Early Next Week, Heavy Rain Main
Concern...

Given the very active short term period, will leave the previous
discussion in place.  The main long term impact continues to be on
the potential for heavy rainfall Friday into early next week.  Still
looks like 3 to locally 5 inches of rainfall will be possible during
this timeframe, which may result in some flooding especially across
the northern portions of the forecast area.

Previous Discussion:
Christmas Eve Night...

We'll actually see a brief break in the action Christmas Eve night
as the frontal boundary and deeper moisture feed are shunted off to
the SE. Still some question as to how far SE this front will hang up
given the strength of the Bermuda High. ECMWF continues to be an
outlier during this time, bringing overrunning precipitation chances
back into our region before dawn on Christmas Day. Will mention some
chances mainly across south central KY toward dawn. Temps will be a
bit cooler on the north side of this boundary, with upper 40s north
to mid and upper 50s south.

Christmas Day - Sunday...

The overall pattern as we head through the holiday weekend will
feature troughing across the western CONUS, and strong Bermuda High
holding. We'll be under the SW flow aloft, which will help to
continually pump deep moisture along a stalled frontal boundary
waffling near our region. This will ultimately result in a very mild
and very wet period of weather.

Christmas Day continues to trend toward the wetter scenario as
models generally agree on the warm front slowly lifting north over
our region. Precipitation look to at least make it to the Ohio River
by afternoon, then persisting into the overnight. The pattern then
amplifies Saturday and Sunday as a SW CONUS cutoff low digs into the
Rio Grande River Valley and SE Ridge responds. This will shift the
focus of the frontogenetical rainfall more across southern Indiana
where the bulk of the rainfall will fall through the weekend. This
will also bring the warmer temps on the south side of the boundary
with small diurnal ranges. This system will have plenty of moisture
to work with as soundings show precipitable water values rising to
1.3-1.6 inches, generally over the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, rain could be moderate to heavy at times.

Christmas Day highs should range in the upper 50s and low 60s north,
to mid 60s south. Expect highs in the upper 60s and low 70s
Saturday, with a slightly cooler Sunday as the front dips back down
into our region a bit. Will still be mostly in the 60s. Lows during
this time will be quite mild in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Sunday Night - Tuesday...

Confidence lowers during this time as models diverge on how quick
the upper low ejects out of Texas into the Great Lakes. The models
are playing into their typical biases, with the slower ECMWF holding
onto the SW energy, and the GFS blasting it through. Actually like
the ECMWF solution and its support from the GEM as the Bermuda Ridge
could continue to play a factor in slow overall progress. So,
depending on which solution, or some compromise between the two,
occurs we'll either see a final strong surge of showers and storms
on Monday or Tuesday. Will have to watch and see if another round of
strong storms will be possible early next week as some instability
could occur in the warm sector ahead of the passing front.

Overall, data still suggest that around 3-5 inches of rain could
fall between Christmas and Tuesday, with the bulk of it across
southern Indiana. Given the amount of rainfall from recent days and
the potential for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, some minor
flooding could become a concern. Still not overly confident given
the subtle model variability with placement of frontogenetical
precipitation. Will continue to monitor latest trends. Will also
note that this active period of weather will likely push SDF and LEX
higher on the standings of the all time wettest year. SDF ranks 9th
as of Dec 21, and LEX ranks 14th.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 PM EST Wed Dec 23 2015

Severe squall line currently moving toward TAF sites.  Eastward
motion of the line is 40 kts, with individual cells moving NE at 55
to 70 kts. Surface winds have topped 50 kts in several locations in
western KY. Isolated cells have produced hail up to 1.75" west of
SDF.

Precipitation to continue after main line goes through for up to 3
hours, with enough moisture to affect cigs and vsbys through the
night.  For now am going above most pessimistic guidance with MVFR
cigs, but there is potential for IFR indicated by some MOS, so will
be closely monitored for possible amendments.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........JBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>034-038-045-053-061>063-070>072-
242030-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-SPENCER-NELSON-LARUE-BUTLER-EDMONSON-
HART-LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN...
MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH...
BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN...
HODGENVILLE...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE
323 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 /223 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

...TORNADO WATCH 560 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST /8 PM CST/ THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AFFECT MAINLY KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST CORES...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KYZ035>037-039>043-046>049-054>057-064>067-073>078-081-082-242030-
FRANKLIN-SCOTT-HARRISON-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-
WASHINGTON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-CLARK-MARION-BOYLE-GARRARD-MADISON-GREEN-
TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WILMORE...WINCHESTER...
LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...GREENSBURG...
CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...
SALEM...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
323 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015 /223 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS AFFECT MAINLY KENTUCKY THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST CORES...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA PRODUCING 2
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
627 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     HAIL             1 ESE BATTLETOWN        38.06N 86.29W
12/23/2015  E0.75 INCH       MEADE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
647 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     HAIL             CORYDON                 38.21N 86.13W
12/23/2015  E1.00 INCH       HARRISON           IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             1 SSW NEW ALBANY        38.29N 85.83W
12/23/2015  E0.88 INCH       FLOYD              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
702 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 E HARTFORD            37.45N 86.84W
12/23/2015  E53 MPH          OHIO               KY   MESONET

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S JEFFERSONVILLE      38.28N 85.73W
12/23/2015                   CLARK              IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER POLES DOWN.

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
706 PM EST WED DEC 23 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE MCQUADY           37.71N 86.51W
12/23/2015  E61 MPH          BRECKINRIDGE       KY   MESONET

&&

MRC