Alert archive / Kentucky / River Flood Warnings in 2015

River Flood Warning 76, NWS Louisville, KY

December 24, 2015Hardin County, Nelson County, Kentucky

NWS Louisville, KY issued this river flood warning at Dec 24, 2015, 10:14 AM EST for Hardin County, Nelson County, Kentucky. It took effect at Dec 25, 2015, 7:00 AM EST. It was in force for 4 days.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 24, 2015, 10:14 AM EST (15:14 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 25, 2015, 7:00 AM EST
Expired
Dec 29, 2015, 11:50 AM EST
In force
4 days
Issued by
NWS Louisville, KY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

Counties Hardin County, KY, Nelson County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 36 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Rolling Fork River near Boston (BSNK2).

Action stage
33 ft
Minor stage
35 ft
Moderate stage
42 ft
Major stage
45 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 03301500, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

481 
WGUS43 KLMK 241514
FLWLMK
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY 
1014 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The National Weather Service in Louisville KY has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Kentucky... 

  Rolling Fork River near Boston

affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

.Heavy rain over the last several hours will cause the river to rise.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-250514-
/O.NEW.KLMK.FL.W.0076.151225T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T1200Z.151228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1014 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The National Weather Service in Louisville KY has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* from Friday morning until further notice.
* At  9:30 AM Thursday the stage was 31.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Water begins to cross low spots on some 
  county roads. Some homes in flood plain are cutoff.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 39.1  
  feet on Mar 12 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$

MRC
11 follow-up statements
198 
WGUS83 KLMK 250146
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
846 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-251746-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0076.151225T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T1200Z.151228T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
846 PM EST THU DEC 24 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* from Thursday evening until further notice.
* At  8:30 PM Thursday the stage was 34.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast to occur.
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Water begins to cross low spots on some 
  county roads. Some homes in flood plain are cutoff.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 39.1  
  feet on Mar 12 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$
287 
WGUS43 KLMK 251555
FLWLMK
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY 
1055 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

  Rolling Fork River near Boston

affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-260555-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151230T0142Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151226T1800Z.151229T1942Z.NO/
1055 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* At 10:30 AM Friday the stage was 36.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 37.1 feet by 
  Saturday early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Tuesday afternoon.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 37.0  
  feet on May 7 2003.


&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$
RL
840 
WGUS83 KLMK 260315
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1015 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Green River at Brownsville 
  Green River at Woodbury 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Butler...Edmonson...
Warren.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-262115-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151230T0142Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151226T1200Z.151229T1942Z.NO/
1015 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Tuesday evening.
* At  9:30 PM Friday the stage was 36.1 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 37.1 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Tuesday 
  early afternoon.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 37.0  
  feet on May 7 2003.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$

KYC061-262115-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0078.151226T2248Z-151229T0000Z/
/BRNK2.1.ER.151226T2248Z.151227T1200Z.151228T1800Z.NO/
1015 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Brownsville.
* from Saturday afternoon to Monday evening.
* At  9:45 PM Friday the stage was 16.3 feet. 
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 20.1 feet by Sunday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet...Mammoth Cave and Green River ferries close.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.3  
  feet on Apr 29 2011.

&&

LAT...LON 3728 8610 3724 8617 3724 8641 3713 8641
      3715 8611 3719 8604             

$$

KYC031-227-262115-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0077.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WDBK2.1.ER.151225T1745Z.151228T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1015 PM EST FRI DEC 25 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Green River at Woodbury.
* until further notice.
* At 10:00 PM Friday the stage was 35.3 feet. 
* Flood stage is 33.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 40.1 feet by 
  Monday early afternoon then begin falling.
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Old Ferry River Road in Aberdeen floods.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 40.1  
  feet on Apr 18 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3724 8641 3728 8659 3739 8678 3728 8680
      3716 8665 3713 8641             

$$
700 
WGUS83 KLMK 261920
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
220 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-270520-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151227T1730Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151225T2015Z.151226T2056Z.NO/
220 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At  1:30 PM Saturday the stage was 35.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will remain just above flood stage through  
  this evening.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$

MRC
928 
WGUS83 KLMK 262122
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
422 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-272122-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151230T2300Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151225T2015Z.151230T1700Z.NO/
422 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  3:30 PM Saturday the stage was 35.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 36.2 feet by 
  early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Agricultural bottomland is covered.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 35.3  
  feet on Jan 4 2004.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$
449 
WGUS83 KLMK 270230
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
930 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-272030-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151230T2300Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151225T2015Z.151230T1700Z.NO/
930 PM EST SAT DEC 26 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At  8:30 PM Saturday the stage was 35.8 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 36.2 feet by 
  early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage 
  Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Agricultural bottomland is covered.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 36.2  
  feet on Jun 4 1997.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$
252 
WGUS83 KLMK 271518
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1018 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-280518-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151231T1621Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151229T0600Z.151231T1021Z.NO/
1018 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Thursday morning.
* At  9:30 AM Sunday the stage was 37.6 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 39.0 feet by 
  early Tuesday morning. 
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Water begins to cross low spots on some 
  county roads. Some homes in flood plain are cutoff.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 39.1  
  feet on Mar 12 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$

MRC
578 
WGUS83 KLMK 280234
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
934 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...

  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-282034-
/O.CON.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151231T1621Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151228T0130Z.151231T1021Z.NO/
934 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Thursday morning.
* At  8:30 PM Sunday the stage was 39.1 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Water begins to cross low spots on some 
  county roads. Some homes in flood plain are cutoff.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 39.1  
  feet on Mar 12 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$
889 
WGUS83 KLMK 281629
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1129 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-290529-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-160102T0300Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151228T0630Z.160101T2100Z.NO/
1129 AM EST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Friday evening.
* At 10:30 AM Monday the stage was 38.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will fall slightly, then begin to rise
  to near 39 feet by early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 40 feet...Water begins to cross low spots on some 
  county roads. Some homes in flood plain are cutoff.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 39.1  
  feet on Mar 12 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$

MRC
618 
WGUS83 KLMK 290423
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1123 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston 
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you are affected by these crests take any necessary actions.
Additional information is available at 
water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=lmk.

&&

KYC093-179-292223-
/O.EXT.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151231T0000Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151228T0630Z.151230T1800Z.NO/
1123 PM EST MON DEC 28 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* until Wednesday evening.
* At 10:30 PM Monday the stage was 36.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact...At 40.0 feet...Water begins to cross low spots on some 
  county roads. Some homes in flood plain are cutoff.
* Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of 39.1  
  feet on Mar 12 2015.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$
701 
WGUS83 KLMK 291650
FLSLMK
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 
1150 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kentucky...
 
  Rolling Fork River near Boston
 
affecting the following counties in Kentucky...Hardin...Nelson.

KYC093-179-291720-
/O.CAN.KLMK.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-151231T0000Z/
/BSNK2.1.ER.151225T0206Z.151228T0630Z.151229T1351Z.NO/
1150 AM EST TUE DEC 29 2015

The flood warning is cancelled for
  the Rolling Fork River near Boston.
* At 11:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 34.6 feet. 
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet.
* Fell below flood stage at  8:51 AM Tuesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 33.5 feet by 
  Wednesday morning.


&&

LAT...LON 3758 8552 3781 8561 3794 8576 3790 8589
      3776 8575 3754 8565             

$$

MRC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Dec 24, 5:56 AM EST, 4 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 5:56 AM EST, 4 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
556 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2015

...A dry Christmas Eve but unsettled weather returns to the area
Christmas Day...

As of 3 am, surface cold front lies from western Ohio through
central Kentucky and north-central TN with mild and moist conditions
ahead. Slightly drier and cooler air was filtering in its wake but
readings were still in the 40s and 50s.

For today, plan on the unseasonable warmth to continue for folks as
surface high pressure builds into the lower Ohio Valley. The air
mass is of Pacific origin, so not seasonably cold. With a mix of sun
and clouds, temperatures will be able to climb into the upper 50s
(southern IN) to mid/upper 60s across central Kentucky.

The next shortwave will begin to slide through the central Plains
late this evening, eventually lifting the surface front back
northward as a warm front across Kentucky. Increasing moisture
transport and elevated instability on the order of 200-500 J/kg will
aid in the development of showers and perhaps a t-storm late
tonight. The greatest chances will be along/south of the KY
parkways, creeping north toward the Ohio River by sunrise Christmas
morning.

24.00z deterministic and ensemble data point to a wetter Christmas
Day as a couple waves of low pressure lift along the front that will
likely stall out across Kentucky. There looks to be a couple periods
of rain, perhaps a thunderstorm too. With PWATS up near 1.75 inches,
bouts of moderate to heavy rain will be a concern. Eventually this
heavy rain may pose flooding problems as our grounds become
increasingly saturated. Christmas Day rainfall totals may exceed 1
inch across south-central KY. It will be unseasonably warm despite
the clouds/rain around, with highs in the upper 50s to mid/upper 60s.

Rich Gulf moisture will impinge on the front across the area with
MUCAPE values of 300-500 J/kg developing within a belt of 30 kt
effective shear. A stronger storm is possible Christmas Day during
the afternoon/evening hours, mainly across south-central KY.

A stronger western trough is expected to develop Christmas Night
with building heights and downstream ridging over the lower Ohio
Valley. This should lift the surface warm front northward into north-
central KY and southern Indiana. Another round of showers and maybe
a t-storm will be focused on north-central KY to southern IN areas
during the overnight where 0.5 to 1 inch of rain may fall Christmas
Night.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2015

...Active Weather Into Next Week...

Saturday - Sunday

A strengthening low pressure system over the southern Plains
combined with strong southerly flow ahead will lift the surface
front back into Indiana during the day Saturday. There remains model
differences on where this front sets up, but southern Indiana stands
the greatest chance to see a continuation of showers and maybe a
thunderstorm during the day. South of this boundary, very warm air
will be in place and depending on cloud cover, highs could easily
soar into the 70s with some south-central KY folks reaching 75
degrees. It will also be noticeably breezy as 850 mb winds approach
50 kts. Even a modest amount of mixing during the afternoon could
bring 30 to 35 mph wind gusts for portions of the area.

Eventually the ridge will break down and the front will begin a slow
drop southward, bringing more rain back into the region. The
greatest chances on Sunday look to be across southern IN and
northern KY, but toward Sunday night, almost all of the area could
be dealing with more rounds of moderate to occasionally heavy rain.

Monday - Wednesday

24.00z point toward another active storm system early next week but
details such as timing and strength remain more uncertain. The big
idea is that it looks to be unseasonably warm, unsettled and wet and
potentially disruptive to travelers across a large portion of the
central Plains to lower Ohio Valley. Severe storm potential will
largely be dictated by timing of the surface front, but the synoptic
setup would favor the potential. In the wake of that system, both
the GFS/ECMWF advertise a secondary southern stream system
developing quick on its heels. Will lean on a model consensus for
just slight chances of rain, but if this trend continues, rain
chances may need to be bumped up mid-week.

Temperatures for next week continue to look above normal with highs
in the 50s, maybe approaching 60 across the south on Monday/Tuesday.

Total rainfall from Christmas Eve through the middle of next week
could trend toward 5 inches across portions of the area. These
repeated rounds of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall could
pose flooding problems, including rivers.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 555 AM EST Thu Dec 24 2015

The fropa has occurred at all TAF sites this morning with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF period. We'll
see some mid-upper level clouds pass through today with light winds
becoming SE by this afternoon.  The next period of concern for
flight restrictions will come late tonight as rain pushes back north
into the region.  At least MVFR restrictions can be expected after
7Z with IFR possible by 12Z tomorrow morning.  Have kept the TAF
optimistic for now.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........AMS
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 4:13 AM EST, 6 hours 1 minute before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
413 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-250915-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-SCOTT-JEFFERSON-DUBOIS-CRAWFORD-PERRY-HARRISON-
FLOYD-CLARK-HANCOCK-BRECKINRIDGE-MEADE-OHIO-GRAYSON-HARDIN-BULLITT-
OLDHAM-TRIMBLE-HENRY-SHELBY-FRANKLIN-SPENCER-ANDERSON-WOODFORD-
FAYETTE-BOURBON-NICHOLAS-NELSON-MERCER-JESSAMINE-LARUE-MARION-BOYLE-
GARRARD-MADISON-BUTLER-EDMONSON-HART-GREEN-TAYLOR-CASEY-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-WARREN-SIMPSON-ALLEN-BARREN-MONROE-METCALFE-ADAIR-RUSSELL-
CUMBERLAND-CLINTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...ORLEANS...FRENCH LICK...SALEM...
SCOTTSBURG...AUSTIN...MADISON...JASPER...HUNTINGBURG...BROWNSTOWN...
MILLTOWN...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...LEWISPORT...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...IRVINGTON...CLOVERPORT...BRANDENBURG...MULDRAUGH...
BEAVER DAM...HARTFORD...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...RADCLIFF...
FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...HILLVIEW...BROOKS...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BUCKNER...CRESTWOOD...PEWEE VALLEY...
BEDFORD...MILTON...EMINENCE...NEW CASTLE...PLEASUREVILLE...
CAMPBELLSBURG...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...
TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...
CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WILMORE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...BEREA...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
HORSE CAVE...MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...
STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...PROVIDENCE...
SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...
RUSSELL SPRINGS...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
413 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015 /313 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY ACTIVE. 4 TO
LOCALLY 6 INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL BETWEEN FRIDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS MAY POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS...INCLUDING RIVERS. IN
ADDITION...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
MAIN THREAT WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT RAINFALL REPORTS ARE
GREATLY APPRECIATED.

ZT

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 24, 10:00 AM EST, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MCHENRY                 37.38N 86.92W
12/23/2015                   OHIO               KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON CAR IN MCHENRY. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

KJD
Local storm report, Dec 24, 10:03 AM EST, 11 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1003 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW LEXINGTON          38.10N 84.53W
12/23/2015                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            MANY REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN THE CITY AND
            COUNTY CAUSING TRAFFIC PROBLEMS.

&&

MRC
Local storm report, Dec 24, 10:08 AM EST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1008 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE SHORT CREEK        37.53N 86.47W
12/23/2015                   GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN SHORT CREEK. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

KJD
Local storm report, Dec 24, 10:10 AM EST, 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0722 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEITCHFIELD             37.48N 86.29W
12/23/2015                   GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN LEITCHFIELD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

&&

KJD
Local storm report, Dec 24, 10:12 AM EST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1012 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ECKERTY            38.33N 86.64W
12/23/2015                   CRAWFORD           IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTED A FEW TREES DOWN ACROSS ROADWAYS
            IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTY. TIME
            ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

NWS LOUISVILLE KY
IRIS SYSTEM
Local storm report, Dec 24, 10:14 AM EST, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1014 AM EST THU DEC 24 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WAX                     37.35N 86.13W
12/23/2015                   GRAYSON            KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN THE TOWN OF WAX. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

KJD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Louisville, KY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 23, 7:00 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBreckinridge, Grayson, Hardin30 min
Dec 23, 7:05 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKHenry, Jefferson, Oldham, Shelby, Trimble40 min
Dec 23, 7:12 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson, Logan, Ohio, Warren33 min
Dec 23, 7:17 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBullitt, Hardin, Jefferson, Nelson, Shelby, Spencer43 min
Dec 23, 7:29 PM ESTFlash Flood WarningLMKJefferson3 hr
Dec 23, 7:30 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBreckinridge, Grayson, Hardin, Meade30 min
Dec 23, 7:45 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Grayson, Logan, Warren30 min
Dec 23, 7:50 PM ESTTornado WarningLMKButler, Edmonson, Warren25 min
Dec 23, 7:58 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAnderson, Bullitt, Franklin, Nelson, Shelby, Spencer47 min
Dec 23, 8:06 PM ESTTornado WarningLMKEdmonson, Grayson, Hart24 min
Dec 23, 8:23 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGrayson, Green, Hardin, Hart, Larue, Marion and 1 more37 min
Dec 23, 8:24 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAnderson, Franklin, Henry, Scott, Shelby, Woodford36 min
Dec 23, 8:39 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAllen, Simpson, Warren36 min
Dec 23, 8:59 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKBourbon, Fayette, Harrison, Nicholas, Scott, Woodford46 min
Dec 23, 9:34 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKFayette, Jessamine, Woodford3 hr
Dec 23, 9:38 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGreen, Hart, Larue, Taylor22 min
Dec 23, 9:41 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Green, Hart, Metcalfe19 min
Dec 23, 10:01 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKGreen, Taylor29 min
Dec 23, 10:18 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKBourbon, Harrison, Nicholas, Scott3 hr
Dec 23, 10:19 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryLMKAnderson, Mercer, Washington3 hr
Dec 23, 10:50 PM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryLMKBourbon36 hr
Dec 23, 10:58 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAdair, Casey, Lincoln47 min
Dec 23, 11:00 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementLMKAdair, Casey, Lincoln45 min
Dec 23, 11:03 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Casey27 min
Dec 23, 11:14 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKAdair, Cumberland, Metcalfe, Russell36 min
Dec 23, 11:20 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKCasey, Lincoln40 min
Dec 23, 11:57 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLMKClinton33 min
Dec 24, 12:02 AM ESTSpecial Weather StatementLMKGarrard, Lincoln, Madison43 min
Dec 24, 2:17 PM ESTRiver Flood AdvisoryLMKNicholas, Robertson52 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Kentucky, 2015Every river flood warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.