Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING FEATURES A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ABLE TO TAP INTO SOME INSTABILITY FROM THE DAY AND AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES WITH SOME...THOUGH WEAK FORCING...SOME OF THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BE TAPPED INTO. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP AT
LEAST A LEAST CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. THIS IS EVIDENT DUE TO THE FACT OF CONTINUED
ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OUT FLOW FROM THE STORMS UP
NORTH AND EVEN BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ITSELF. UPDATED THE FORECAST INTO THE DAY AS WELL WITH THE FRONT
BEGINNING TO STALL AND BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW AND AFTERNOON. THOUGH WOULD THINK THE LACK OF FORCING AND
SLOWLY BEING A SITUATION WHERE CONVECTION WILL RELY ON THE DAYS
INSTABILITY...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE...MAINLY ALONG
THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE EAST. SO WOULD EXPECT A GRADUAL SLOW DOWN
IN ACTIVITY THROUGH DAWN BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT AND GRIDS FRESHENED UP AND SENT SENT TO
NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1058 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEVERAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SINCE AROUND 830...DOWNING
TREES AND DUMPING HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING
ISSUES IN ROWAN AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. A HASTILY PREPARED ZONE
FORECAST UPDATE HAS JUST BEEN SENT OUT...FOCUSING ON GETTING THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO SEE HOW MUCH OF
THIS MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR NEWLY FORMED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OUTFLOW
FROM EXISTING STORMS PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO REMOVE SOME OUTDATED WORDING FROM
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS TO OUR NORTH MOVED
ACROSS AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO STABILIZE MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SLOWLY...BUT TO
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY AXIS HAS REMAINED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THE 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000
J/KG FROM WESTERN KY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THIS TIME CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS OVER NW INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
TRENDS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND
THUS WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE...BUT STILL ONLY A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY WILL BE PLACED IN THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS TONIGHT...AND THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ANY FORCING WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN CARRY ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. IN GENERAL WE CAN EXPECT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS SUGGEST TWO MAIN DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WED NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY THU AND THE
SECOND AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEK...OR POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE TIMING IS SIMILAR THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
DISORGANIZED WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
0Z ECMWF TO START OUT THE EXTENDED. A QUICK PEAK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THAT IT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS A BIT BUT REMAINS
AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED SFC SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THU.

THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE 0Z ECMWF WITH THE SECOND
MAIN DISTURBANCE TARGETING OUR AREA WITHIN THE EXTENDED WINDOW...BY
12 HOURS OR MORE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUGGESTS THE BEST APPROACH IS TO RELY HEAVILY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE BLENDS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...UNTIL THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST LATE IN THE WEEK A LINGERING QUASI/STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SETS UP AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SFC FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN GENERAL...WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED RISK OF POPS WHEN COMPARED WITH NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FURTHER SOUTH...AN OUTFLOW FORM THE
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER THE BLUEGRASS. THUS...OVER THE SOME OF THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS IN THESE AREAS AS
CONVECTION HAS WANED A BIT. MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT HAS RECEIVED
A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN LEAVING A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AD TOWARDS DAWN. WILL PUT SOME
FIELD MINS AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE FOG LIFTING AFTER 13Z.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN ERUPT ALONG
THE STALLED BOUNDARY BUT CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AT THE TAF
SITES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ANY STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THAT
OCCUR THIS EVENING.

GREIF/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1244 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KYZ110-113-118-120-040545-
KNOTT-LETCHER-FLOYD-PIKE-
1244 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KNOTT...LETCHER...
FLOYD...AND PIKE COUNTIES THROUGH 145 AM EDT...

AT 1243 AM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM DOCK TO TOPMOST TO ANCO...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIKEVILLE...ESTILL...JENKINS...COAL RUN VILLAGE...ELKHORN CITY...
WHEELWRIGHT...FLEMING-NEON...MARTIN...PIPPA PASSES...WAYLAND...
ALLEN...GREENLEAF...CHLOE...EHKHORN MINE...FISHTRAP LAKE...EAST
MCDOWELL...ALPHORETTA...BUCKINGHAM...ELIC AND KITE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 12.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN KNOTT COUNTY NEAR MILE MARKER 20.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 119 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 8.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 9.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN LETCHER COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN PIKE COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 32.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 8224 3727 8235 3723 8250 3715 8263
      3711 8273 3726 8312 3737 8285 3763 8288
      3754 8221
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 280DEG 26KT 3764 8280 3737 8277 3725 8307

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1250 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
08/03/2015                   MONTGOMERY         KY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT MOUNT STERLING AND THE
            NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY IN GENERAL.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1253 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLOOD            MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
08/03/2015                   MONTGOMERY         KY   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL ROADS WERE IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODING IN THE
            NORTHERN PORTION OF MONTGOMERY COUNTY INCLUDING THE
            FOLLOWING, QUISSENBERRY ROAD, BUNKER HILL ROAD, CECIL
            PIKE, STEPSTONE ROAD, HOWARDS MILL ROAD, AND ROGERS MILL
            ROAD.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1254 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
08/03/2015                   MONTGOMERY         KY   911 CALL CENTER

            INTERSTATE 64 WAS COVERED WITH FLOWING WATER OF UNKNOWN
            DEPTH. THE 3700 BLOCK OF STEPSTONE ROAD HAD WAIST DEEP
            WATER FLOWING ACROSS IT.

&&

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
102 AM EDT TUE AUG 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OWINGSVILLE             38.14N 83.76W
08/03/2015                   BATH               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN THROUGHOUT OWINGSVILLE.

&&

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
208 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KYZ114>117-040645-
CLAY-LESLIE-OWSLEY-PERRY-
208 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAY...LESLIE...OWSLEY...
PERRY...

AT 208 AM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER TEGES...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MANCHESTER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WHOOPFLAREA...BEAR BRANCH...SIZEROCK...BUCKHORN LAKE S.P....ONEIDA...
KRYPTON...HOSEA...SPURLOCK...MOSLEY BEND...BRUTUS...NEWFOUND...
PANCO...WILD CAT...ENLINE...SAUL...TEGES...HENSLEY...
THOUSANDSTICKS...JACKS CREEK AND BOBS FORK.

THIS INCLUDES HAL ROGERS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 47.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3723 8373 3735 8370 3734 8354 3733 8354
      3734 8352 3732 8331 3711 8346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 299DEG 18KT 3729 8366

GEOGERIAN