Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO SEE HOW MUCH OF
THIS MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR NEWLY FORMED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OUTFLOW
FROM EXISTING STORMS PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO REMOVE SOME OUTDATED WORDING FROM
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS TO OUR NORTH MOVED
ACROSS AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO STABILIZE MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SLOWLY...BUT TO
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY AXIS HAS REMAINED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THE 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000
J/KG FROM WESTERN KY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THIS TIME CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS OVER NW INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
TRENDS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND
THUS WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE...BUT STILL ONLY A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY WILL BE PLACED IN THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS TONIGHT...AND THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ANY FORCING WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN CARRY ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. IN GENERAL WE CAN EXPECT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS SUGGEST TWO MAIN DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WED NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY THU AND THE
SECOND AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEK...OR POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE TIMING IS SIMILAR THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
DISORGANIZED WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
0Z ECMWF TO START OUT THE EXTENDED. A QUICK PEAK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THAT IT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS A BIT BUT REMAINS
AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED SFC SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THU.

THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE 0Z ECMWF WITH THE SECOND
MAIN DISTURBANCE TARGETING OUR AREA WITHIN THE EXTENDED WINDOW...BY
12 HOURS OR MORE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUGGESTS THE BEST APPROACH IS TO RELY HEAVILY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE BLENDS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...UNTIL THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST LATE IN THE WEEK A LINGERING QUASI/STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SETS UP AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SFC FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN GENERAL...WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED RISK OF POPS WHEN COMPARED WITH NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT SME...WHICH EXPERIENCED IFR FOG LATE LAST NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...FELT IT UNNECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF COURSE...BUT
BASED ON ALL THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ANY STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THAT
OCCUR THIS EVENING.

GREIF/SBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
900 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             BETHEL                  38.25N 83.87W
08/03/2015  M0.50 INCH       BATH               KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
912 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEMINGSBURG            38.42N 83.74W
08/03/2015                   FLEMING            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN MOUNT CARMEL AVE NEAR COURTHOUSE.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
914 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FLEMINGSBURG            38.42N 83.74W
08/03/2015                   FLEMING            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN HIGHWAY 32 INSIDE CITY LIMITS.

&&

DSTAMPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
915 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ052-104-040200-
ROWAN-ELLIOTT-
915 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...ELLIOTT...

AT 915 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CHRISTY...OR NEAR
MOREHEAD...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOREHEAD...SANDY HOOK...MINOR...HAYS CROSSING...CHRISTY...WAGNER
STORE...LYTTEN...NEWFOUNDLAND...CLEARFIELD...MUNSON...HAMM...
ELLIOTTVILLE...BRUIN...VALE...CRIX...TRIPLETT...WAGNER...GATES...
RODBURN AND WALTZ.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
137 AND 149.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3830 8333 3821 8330 3819 8326 3820 8323
      3824 8322 3827 8317 3823 8309 3818 8305
      3820 8304 3821 8301 3817 8298 3818 8292
      3811 8289 3805 8295 3803 8301 3817 8350
      3832 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 285DEG 35KT 3821 8338

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
933 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOREHEAD                38.19N 83.44W
08/03/2015                   ROWAN              KY   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 60 IN MOREHEAD. DEPTH UNKNOWN.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
941 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALT LICK               38.12N 83.62W
08/03/2015                   BATH               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN HIGHWAY 60 AT SALT LICK.

&&

DSTAMPER