Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO SEE HOW MUCH OF
THIS MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR NEWLY FORMED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OUTFLOW
FROM EXISTING STORMS PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO REMOVE SOME OUTDATED WORDING FROM
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS TO OUR NORTH MOVED
ACROSS AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO STABILIZE MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SLOWLY...BUT TO
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY AXIS HAS REMAINED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THE 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000
J/KG FROM WESTERN KY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THIS TIME CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS OVER NW INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
TRENDS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND
THUS WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE...BUT STILL ONLY A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY WILL BE PLACED IN THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS TONIGHT...AND THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ANY FORCING WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN CARRY ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. IN GENERAL WE CAN EXPECT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS SUGGEST TWO MAIN DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WED NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY THU AND THE
SECOND AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEK...OR POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE TIMING IS SIMILAR THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
DISORGANIZED WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
0Z ECMWF TO START OUT THE EXTENDED. A QUICK PEAK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THAT IT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS A BIT BUT REMAINS
AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED SFC SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THU.

THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE 0Z ECMWF WITH THE SECOND
MAIN DISTURBANCE TARGETING OUR AREA WITHIN THE EXTENDED WINDOW...BY
12 HOURS OR MORE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUGGESTS THE BEST APPROACH IS TO RELY HEAVILY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE BLENDS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...UNTIL THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST LATE IN THE WEEK A LINGERING QUASI/STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SETS UP AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SFC FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN GENERAL...WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED RISK OF POPS WHEN COMPARED WITH NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT SME...WHICH EXPERIENCED IFR FOG LATE LAST NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...FELT IT UNNECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF COURSE...BUT
BASED ON ALL THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ANY STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THAT
OCCUR THIS EVENING.

GREIF/SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ044-052-040115-
ROWAN-FLEMING-
835 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ROWAN...FLEMING...

AT 834 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR FLEMINGSBURG...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...WALLINGFORD...MOUNT CARMEL...FOXPORT
AND FLEMINGSBURG JUNCTION.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 8363 3850 8362 3850 8361 3849 8359
      3843 8358 3841 8352 3840 8348 3838 8345
      3840 8341 3834 8336 3846 8384 3852 8364
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 287DEG 35KT 3848 8376

AR