Flash Flood Warning 79, NWS Jackson, KY

085 
WGUS73 KJKL 040527
FFSJKL

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

KYC011-040537-
/O.EXP.KJKL.FF.W.0079.000000T0000Z-150804T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BATH KY-
127 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BATH COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 130 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLASH FLOODING HAS SUBSIDED...HOWEVER 
SEVERAL ROADS REMAIN CLOSED IN THE WARNED AREA...AND AN AREAL FLOOD 
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM EDT.

LAT...LON 3812 8359 3802 8362 3803 8366 3802 8368
      3801 8372 3802 8377 3803 8379 3817 8374

$$

GEOGERIAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
730 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY THAT IS ONGOING
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO SEE HOW MUCH OF
THIS MAKES IT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR NEWLY FORMED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS OUTFLOW
FROM EXISTING STORMS PROPAGATE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. AT THE VERY
LEAST WILL EVENTUALLY NEED TO REMOVE SOME OUTDATED WORDING FROM
THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS TO OUR NORTH MOVED
ACROSS AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA HELPING TO STABILIZE MUCH OF
EASTERN KY. DESTABILIZATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING SLOWLY...BUT TO
THIS POINT THE INSTABILITY AXIS HAS REMAINED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THE 18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000
J/KG FROM WESTERN KY INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. AT THIS TIME CONVECTION
IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL INDIANA OUT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT IS OVER NW INDIANA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
TRENDS MAKE THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST...AND
THUS WILL KEEP PROBABILITIES FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOW
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE...BUT STILL ONLY A 30
PERCENT PROBABILITY WILL BE PLACED IN THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON TO NORTHWEST
INDIANA WILL MAKE SLOW SOUTHEAST PROGRESS TONIGHT...AND THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO KY ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER ANY FORCING WILL
REMAIN MARGINAL...AND WILL ONCE AGAIN CARRY ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH
THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. IN GENERAL WE CAN EXPECT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...
BEFORE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED. MODELS SUGGEST TWO MAIN DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY...THE FIRST WED NIGHT...OR MORE LIKELY THU AND THE
SECOND AT THE VERY END OF THE WEEK...OR POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WHILE TIMING IS SIMILAR THE 12Z GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE
DISORGANIZED WITH THE MID WEEK STORM SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
0Z ECMWF TO START OUT THE EXTENDED. A QUICK PEAK AT THE 12Z ECMWF
SHOWS THAT IT HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS A BIT BUT REMAINS
AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A MORE ORGANIZED SFC SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THU.

THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE 0Z ECMWF WITH THE SECOND
MAIN DISTURBANCE TARGETING OUR AREA WITHIN THE EXTENDED WINDOW...BY
12 HOURS OR MORE AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
THE 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED WEAKER WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE. A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST SUGGESTS THE BEST APPROACH IS TO RELY HEAVILY ON
MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE BLENDS UNTIL MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...UNTIL THE FIRST DISTURBANCE HAS PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST LATE IN THE WEEK A LINGERING QUASI/STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER
MORE ACTIVE THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN CHALLENGE IS WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY SETS UP AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS SFC FRONTAL ZONE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN GENERAL...WITH A SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED RISK OF POPS WHEN COMPARED WITH NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

FEATURED VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT SME...WHICH EXPERIENCED IFR FOG LATE LAST NIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...FELT IT UNNECESSARY TO INCLUDE TS IN THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. THIS SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OF COURSE...BUT
BASED ON ALL THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL BE SPARSE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...AR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-041200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
357 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ANY STORMS THIS EVENING COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY CONCERNS...MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THAT
OCCUR THIS EVENING.

GREIF/SBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
945 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WYOMING                 38.22N 83.70W
08/03/2015                   BATH               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN ON WYOMING ROAD.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
947 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OLYMPIA SPRINGS         38.06N 83.67W
08/03/2015                   BATH               KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN IN 1700 BLOCK OF HIGHWAY 36W.

&&

DSTAMPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1010 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BURKE                   38.11N 83.04W
08/03/2015                   ELLIOTT            KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN HIGHWAY 706 AND BRUIN HILL AREAS.

&&

DSTAMPER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ107-109-110-119-040300-
JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-MARTIN-FLOYD-
1018 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JOHNSON...MAGOFFIN...MARTIN...
FLOYD...

AT 1017 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LICKSBURG...OR NEAR
SALYERSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PAINTSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...SALYERSVILLE...MASON...ALLEN...
BROWNLOW...SWAMP BRANCH...STAFFORDSVILLE...CORN FORK HOLLOW...
GRAYFOX...PERLIE...DAVELLA...BOONS CAMP...BAYS BRANCH...QUOD...
EVER...DOTSON...DICKS CREEK...BALLOT AND TUTOR KEY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 BERT T. COMBS MOUNTAIN PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 69 AND 76.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 3 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 4.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 3 IN JOHNSON COUNTY  KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 3 IN MARTIN
COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 7.
 KENTUCKY HIGHWAY 80 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 14.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN FLOYD COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 3 AND 21.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 23 IN JOHNSON COUNTY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 9.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3768 8258 3768 8259 3767 8261 3755 8262
      3775 8317 3788 8309 3787 8306 3787 8300
      3782 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 286DEG 25KT 3780 8307

AR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

KYZ050>052-060-040315-
BATH-MENIFEE-ROWAN-MONTGOMERY-
1029 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BATH...MENIFEE...
ROWAN...MONTGOMERY...

AT 1028 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS OVER JUDY...OR
NEAR MOUNT STERLING...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...FRENCHBURG...MARSHALL...
JEFFERSONVILLE...CAMARGO...WELLINGTON...SHARPSBURG...SALT LICK...
LOWER SPENCER...TABOR...FLAT CREEK...BOURBON FURNACE...PRESTON...
EWINGTON...SIDEVIEW...WALKERS CROSSING...HOPE...STEPSTONE AND
DENNISTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 64 IN EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
106 AND 129.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3809 8339 3805 8342 3804 8343 3801 8344
      3784 8354 3809 8407 3811 8408 3814 8406
      3817 8399 3819 8398 3825 8391
TIME...MOT...LOC 0228Z 295DEG 24KT 3816 8396

AR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1031 PM     HAIL             4 W SALYERSVILLE        37.75N 83.14W
08/03/2015  M0.25 INCH       MAGOFFIN           KY   911 CALL CENTER

            PEA SIZED HAIL ON NEW HIGHWAY 460.

&&

DSTAMPER