Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
734 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS.  LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED.  HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.  CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST.  THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN IN ALL TAFS FOR NEXT 24HRS. STORM
NORTH OF BOTH PIA AND BMI THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
THEM AND DIMINISH BEFORE IT GETS TO EITHER ONE. SO VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES NEXT 24HRS. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL GET CLOSER TO PIA AND BMI...WILL BE UPDATING TO
INCLUDE PCPN...BUT FOR NOW THINK THEY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF BOTH
SITES.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...AUTEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>046-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-
PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON
PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. AREAS OF
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ON PORTIONS
OF THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-
SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PORTIONS OF THE
LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM I-70 NORTHWARD...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ON
PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

HJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
820 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     HAIL             CAZENOVIA               40.85N 89.33W
06/10/2015  M0.75 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
821 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             GILSON                  40.87N 90.20W
06/10/2015  M0.88 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

0630 PM     HAIL             LACON                   41.02N 89.41W
06/10/2015  M1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER

0702 PM     HAIL             MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT 41.02N 89.39W
06/10/2015  E1.50 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0705 PM     HAIL             HOPEWELL                40.98N 89.46W
06/10/2015  M1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LACON               41.01N 89.41W
06/10/2015                   MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 N LACON               41.11N 89.41W
06/10/2015                   MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROUTE 26 HAS BEEN WASHED OUT DUE TO WATER FLOWING OFFTHE
            BLUFF. LAW ENFORCEMENT HAS CLOSED THE ROAD.

0740 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 W LOW POINT           40.88N 89.42W
06/10/2015                   WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

0740 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW SPARLAND          41.05N 89.49W
06/10/2015                   MARSHALL           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            10-15 POWER POLES SNAPPED

0808 PM     HAIL             5 S WILLIAMSFIELD       40.85N 90.02W
06/10/2015  M0.75 INCH       KNOX               IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT MILE MARKER 68

0808 PM     HAIL             CAZENOVIA               40.85N 89.33W
06/10/2015  M0.75 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
832 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0828 PM     HAIL             3 W PRINCEVILLE         40.93N 89.81W
06/10/2015  M1.00 INCH       PEORIA             IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ON ROUTE 90

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
846 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LACON                   41.02N 89.41W
06/10/2015                   MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL CREEKS OUT OF BANKS AND WATER FLOWING OVER ROADS
            IN CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
847 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             3 S GALESBURG           40.91N 90.38W
06/10/2015  M0.88 INCH       KNOX               IL   STORM CHASER

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E SPARLAND            41.03N 89.42W
06/10/2015                   MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LAW ENFORCEMENT CLOSING BRIDGE ON RT. 17 ACROSS ILLINOIS
            RIVER DUE TO WATER OVER RT. 17 ON WEST SIDE OF RIVER

&&

25