Alert archive / Illinois / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Lincoln, IL

June 10, 2015Marshall County, Woodford County, Illinois

NWS Lincoln, IL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 10, 2015, 7:17 PM CDT for Marshall County, Woodford County, Illinois. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 10, 2015, 7:17 PM CDT (00:17 UTC)
Expired: Jun 10, 2015, 8:00 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Lincoln, IL
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Marshall County, IL, Woodford County, IL

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Lincoln, IL (KILX), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2102 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -82 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1758 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 71 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 180 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 3.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

457 
WUUS53 KILX 110017
SVRILX
ILC123-203-110100-
/O.NEW.KILX.SV.W.0070.150611T0017Z-150611T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
717 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  NORTH CENTRAL WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LACON...
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
           CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LACON...WASHBURN...LA ROSE AND MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.
LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES LEADING KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 4097 8945 4106 8936 4098 8920 4088 8933
      4093 8945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 318DEG 8KT 4098 8938 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

AUTEN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 10, 3:03 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 10, 3:03 PM CDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

COLD FRONT SLOWLY EDGING TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
A MUGGY AIRMASS.  LAPS DATA SHOWING 4000-5000 J/KG AVAILABLE ENERGY
BUT SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT YET STARTED.  HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO ILX NORTHERN TIER.
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT IN THE OVERNIGHT IS LIMITED WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN TIER AT LEAST IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM.  CAPE
WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT ONCE THE SUN SETS AND THE DIURNAL INFLUENCE
IS LOST.  THAT BEING SAID, STILL ENOUGH OF A HUMID AND HOT AIRMASS
TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY HAVANA TO DANVILLE. EVEN WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5-2"...THE HRRR AND RAP/RUC IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THAT BEING SAID, THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ILX IS STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH THE
EVENING...AND WITH AMPLE CAPE, EVEN WITHOUT A LOT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, STORMS CAN EASILY DEVELOP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD IN THE
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL CREATE A HOT AND
HUMID DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SE IL. STORM CHANCES WILL BE TIED TO
THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT NORTHWARD, SO AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM
RUSHVILLE TO LINCOLN TO BLOOMINGTON WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES.
SPC INCREASED OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IN
THAT GENERAL AREA, WITH ELEVATED CAPES OF 2-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR
OF 20-25KTS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. SO DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FOR THURS AFTN/EVE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SLIDE EAST
ACROSS IOWA. A BREAK IN THE STORMS APPEARS LIKELY, UNTIL AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW REACHES CLOSE TO NW IL. STORM CHANCES
WILL EXPAND TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
NORTH AND IT DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
FRONT WILL TRIGGER STORMS, SOME POSSIBLE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND.
SPC HAS US IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. WE FOLLOWED
THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
LIKELY POPS, FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL SHOW THE COLD FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE FOCUS FOR STORMS
SOUTH OF PEORIA TO BLOOMINGTON. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT
HUMIDITY WILL NOT IMPROVE MUCH AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN NORTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
STORM CHANCES INCREASING TO LIKELY ON SUNDAY WEST OF A LINE FROM
EFFINGHAM TO DANVILLE...AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES TRIGGER
PERIODIC STORMS. LIKELY CHANCES OF RAIN LINGER NORTH OF PEORIA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MORE LIKELY POPS APPEAR EVIDENT IN THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FROM KANSAS INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

ONE MAIN THEME THROUGHOUT THE 7 DAY FORECAST IS HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT IN THE AIRMASS, AND INSTABILITY EVERYDAY. SHEAR PARAMETERS
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25KTS, WHICH LENDS TOWARD SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOODING
COULD BECOME A REAL CONCERN IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED STORM TRACKS
OVER THE NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL RATES OVER SHORT PERIODS OF TIME COULD
EASILY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES PER HOUR...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REPEATEDLY CLIMB TOWARD 2 INCHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
MESSY FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH PERIODIC THUNDER
CHANCES. HAVE OPTED FOR A TEMPO INVOF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE OTHER TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VCTS IS ENOUGH TO COVER SPI AND DEC
THROUGH THIS EVENING. BREAKING FROM VCTS TO VCSH TO LEAVE A BIT OF
A GAP IN THE THUNDER COVERAGE IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. SCT
AC ON SAT IMAGERY AND OBS CURRENTLY, SOME MORE SFC BASED CU
EXPECTED WITH THE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING
SCT LLVL CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY BKN HIGH FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS, ALTHOUGH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS ARE VERY DIFFUSE
WITH THE MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS WELL.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 10, 3:15 PM CDT, 4 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>046-111100-
CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-PEORIA-
PIATT-SCHUYLER-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL TO AROUND ONE INCH
DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON
PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. AREAS OF
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ON PORTIONS
OF THE ILLINOIS AND SANGAMON RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ILZ047>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-111100-
CASS-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MACON-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-RICHLAND-
SANGAMON-SCOTT-SHELBY-
315 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ON PORTIONS OF THE
LITTLE WABASH AND EMBARRAS RIVERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM I-70 NORTHWARD...HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
AREAS OF RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK ON
PORTIONS OF THE LITTLE WABASH RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

HJS

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 10, 6:45 PM CDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
645 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             GILSON                  40.87N 90.20W
06/10/2015  M0.88 INCH       KNOX               IL   MESONET

0630 PM     HAIL             LACON                   41.02N 89.41W
06/10/2015  M1.75 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   PUBLIC

            VIA TWITTER

&&

25

Local storm report, Jun 10, 7:04 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
704 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT 41.02N 89.39W
06/10/2015  E1.50 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

25

Local storm report, Jun 10, 7:10 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
710 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0706 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S LACON               41.01N 89.41W
06/10/2015                   MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TOWN

&&

25

Local storm report, Jun 10, 7:12 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
712 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             HOPEWELL                40.98N 89.46W
06/10/2015  M1.00 INCH       MARSHALL           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

25

The office that day

Everything else NWS Lincoln, IL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 10, 7:25 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Marshall, Woodford	10 hr
Jun 10, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Marshall, Tazewell, Woodford	50 min
Jun 10, 8:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Marshall, Peoria, Stark	44 min
Jun 10, 8:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Peoria	3 hr
Jun 10, 9:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Knox	27 min
Jun 10, 9:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Tazewell	39 min
Jun 10, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Knox	66 min
Jun 10, 9:30 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Marshall	8 hr
Jun 10, 9:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Knox	7 hr
Jun 10, 10:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton, Peoria, Tazewell	7 hr
Jun 10, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox, Mason, Peoria	24 min
Jun 10, 11:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox, Mason, Peoria, Tazewell	43 min
Jun 11, 1:01 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton, Schuyler	4 hr
Jun 11, 4:38 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	ILX	Schuyler	3 hr
Jun 11, 5:24 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	ILX	Fulton, Knox	69 hr
Jun 11, 3:11 PM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	ILX	Fulton, Knox, McLean, Marshall, Peoria, Stark and 2 more	19 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Illinois, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.