Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

15Z/10AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN NOW WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE WESTERN KILX CWA AND THIS
CLEARING WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
WISCONSIN/NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SKIRT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
TODAY. LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME STEEP ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. HRRR SHOWS THIS TREND QUITE WELL...WITH THE BEST AREAL
COVERAGE ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-74 CORRIDOR. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO FEATURE A MORE DISTINCT WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
POPS TO GO DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70. AFTER THAT...HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS FROM MID-AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

MCS STILL PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-72 EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST IL
INTO MID MORNING. HAVE ALLOWED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO EXPIRE
IN SOUTHEAST IL AT 3 AM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SOUTH OF I-72 DURING THE MORNING AND LINGER LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST IL. THEN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN IL. SPC HAS
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WARM HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER
EASTERN IL MAINLY UP UNTIL SUNSET. DIRUNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
DISSIPATES OR SHIFTS EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVING EAST OF
IL BY SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S WITH GALESBURG BEING THE
COOLEST NEAR 60F. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO BE OVER THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY TUE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM IL.
SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S (WARMEST
IN SW CWA). DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SO NOT TOO
HUMID OF A DAY. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TUE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (COOLEST IN EASTERN IL).

A NORTHERNS STREAM SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
WED AND DRIVES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE INTO THE IL RIVER VALLEY WED
AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH LIFT THIS FAR SOUTH OVER CENTRAL IL WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THOUGH HAVE SOME INSTABLITY WITH CAPES OF 1000
J/KG. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM I-
72 NORTH WED INTO WED EVENING AND SPC EVEN HAS MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS DURING WED AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
VERY WARM WED WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90F AND GETTING MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE OVER NORTHERN IL THU WITH
CENTRAL/SE IL IN VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. FRONT IS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO GIVE CENTRAL IL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
FROM I-74 NORTH. HIGHS THU IN THE UPPER 80S CENTRAL IL AND NEAR 90F
IN SOUTHEAST IL.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO OCCUR LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EJECTING NE AND OVER TOP OF RIDGE INTO IL. THIS
TO PROVIDE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS FRI RANGE FROM LOWER 80S NW OF THE IL RIVER TO THE
UPPER 80S IN SOUTHEAST IL WHERE MORE SUNSHINE POSSIBLE AND LESS OF A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO THESE READINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2015

A BAND OF SHOWERS AFFECTING KDEC-KCMI EARLY IN TAF PERIOD...WHILE
LOCALLY DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AFFECT AT KSPI-KPIA-KBMI.
RESULTING CONDITIONS GENERALLY IFR/LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS THEN
DAYTIME HEATING AND A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BY 13Z-14Z. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON TRIGGERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE GENERAL CEILINGS ABOVE MVFR
THRESHOLDS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN
TAFS...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANCE FOR BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
OR WORSE POSSIBLE. CLEARING EXPECTED AFTER 00Z. WINDS S-SW 5-10
KTS BECOMING W 10-12 WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AFTER 16Z. WINDS
DECREASING AND TURNING WNW AFTER 00Z.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARNES
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ONTON

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
833 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S LOUISVILLE          38.73N 88.51W
06/08/2015                   CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAR SWEPT OFF HWY US 45, DRIVER RESCUED.

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      FLORA                   38.67N 88.48W
06/08/2015                   CLAY               IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            URBAN STREET FLOODING

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
836 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NW NEOGA              39.36N 88.50W
06/08/2015  M2.31 INCH       SHELBY             IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
840 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0813 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DANVILLE                40.14N 87.62W
06/08/2015  M4.71 INCH       VERMILION          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED NEAR LAKE VERMILION

0830 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE AUBURN             39.56N 89.72W
06/08/2015  M2.16 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
845 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W BISMARCK            40.27N 87.66W
06/08/2015  M4.02 INCH       VERMILION          IL   MESONET

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
951 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FLOOD            LAKE SARA               39.13N 88.62W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAKE IS CLOSED TO ALL BOAT TRAFFIC DUE TO HIGH LEVELS.
            3.90 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED OVERNIGHT.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      TEUTOPOLIS              39.13N 88.48W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ALL CREEKS AND BOTTOM ROAD FLOODS

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WATSON                  39.03N 88.57W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR FLOODING ON HIGHWAYS 37 AND 45. 5.50 INCHES OF RAIN
            OVERNIGHT.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BEECHER CITY            39.19N 88.79W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CREEKS NORTH AND SOUTH OF TOWN ARE FLOODED AND NEARBY
            ROADS ARE NOT PASSABLE.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SW SHUMWAY            39.13N 88.72W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BRIDGE WASHED OUT AT 1500TH AVENUE, WEST OF 500TH STREET.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 E MASON               38.95N 88.55W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MASON-EBERLE ROAD WEST OF HIGHWAY 45 IS FLOODED.

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 S ALTAMONT            39.03N 88.75W
06/08/2015                   EFFINGHAM          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS AREAS FLOODED SOUTH OF ALTAMONT.

&&

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1022 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EUREKA                  40.72N 89.28W
06/08/2015  M2.68 INCH       WOODFORD           IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

0951 AM     TSTM WND DMG     EAST PEORIA             40.67N 89.55W
06/08/2015                   TAZEWELL           IL   MESONET

            LARGE TREE LIMBS/BRANCHES DOWN, GREATER THAN 2 INCHES

1011 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LE ROY                  40.34N 88.76W
06/08/2015  M2.56 INCH       MCLEAN             IL   MESONET

&&

JRP