Tornado Warning 35, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN TRAINING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN
MATAGORDA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF FORT BEND
COUNTY...THE HOUSTON AREA...AND ACROSS LIBERTY COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED TRAINING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL EXPECTING RAINS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF QUIET
DAYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS RISE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. 42
&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH THIS MORNING
TO GENERALLY PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOT...GUSTING TO 35 KNOT...OFFSHORE
WINDS. ONCE THE GALE WARNING FALLS OFF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...GULF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...CAUTION FLAGS
FOR BOTH BAYS. AS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP ACROSS THE
TEXAS COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS WILL WEAKEN
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AREAWIDE RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WINDS AND CHURN UP ROUGH SEAS AS LATE AS
EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO OFFSHORE. THESE LIGHT NORTHERLIES
WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE TUESDAY...OR ONCE EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND EXPANDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERN DISTURBANCES RIDING UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A GULF-CENTERED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY'S RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  59  75  55  78 /  80  20  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  63  76  57  78 /  90  20  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  67  75  65  74 /  90  30  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1
     PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-311200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
401 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE (DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT)...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TODAY...AND WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. ALONG THE COAST...
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT)...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO (RAINFALL TOTALS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY...
AND A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE IN TIME FOR
ANY EARLY EVENING OUTDOOR PLANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
108 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    16 S STOWELL            29.55N  94.39W
10/31/2015                   GALVESTON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER WITH DEBRIS ON THE ROAD FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 124 AND 87 IN HIGH
            ISLAND. TXDOT HAS THE ROAD SHUT DOWN WITH SIGNS IN
            PLACE. CALL FROM GALVESTON COUNTY EMC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500516

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE BROOKSIDE VILLAGE  29.60N  95.30W
10/31/2015                   HARRIS             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING REPORTED IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON
            AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 610 SOUTH LOOP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500517

42