Flash Flood Warning 130, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1214 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS... AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS
CENTER AROUND PRECIP TIMING...CEILINGS...AND VISIBILITIES.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOUTHWEST OF THE
HOUSTON TERMINALS THIS EVENING... QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. EXPECT
TEMPO TERMINAL IMPACTS TO BEGIN AROUND 06Z AS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
MOVES IN OFF THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY... CONTINUING TO MONITOR A
BROKEN LINE STRETCHING FROM NEAR DFW TO DRT AS THIS IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE
REGION. STARTING TAFS WITH MVFR CIGS PREVAILING... WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. HIGHER WIND GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE VARIES ON
HOW QUICKLY CLEARING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS LINE... BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS SHOWS VFR RETURNING 18-21Z SUNDAY.

HUFFMAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN OVERVIEW OF AN ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS
SHOWED A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO WACO. A VERY
GOOD INFLOW INTO THE STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS WAS OCCURRING...WITH
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
MARINE AREAS. A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WAS SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE WITH 850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 16 FROM
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE INTO CENTRAL OK...AND 700 MB DEWPOINTS
GREATER THAN 4 AT CRP AND BRO. IN CONTRAST...A CAP WAS EVIDENT
ACROSS SE TEXAS AS SEEN ON THE CRP SOUNDING AND HINTED ON THE LCH
SOUNDING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN RATHER LIGHT THIS EVENING SO FAR AS A
RESULT...ALTHOUGH AT 930 PM WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.

LIKE A COMBINATION OF THE LATEST TEXAS TECH AND HRRR WHICH SHOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. BOTH MODELS THEN BRING AN AREA
OF STORMS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...FELT THAT
THE BEST TIMES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ON SATURDAY...BUT
COULD NOT RULE OUT AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      69  78  59  75  55 /  90  70  10  10  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              71  80  63  76  57 /  90  90  20  10  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            74  78  67  75  65 /  90  90  30  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT
     TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO
     60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION/MARINE...14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
401 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-311200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
401 AM CDT FRI OCT 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXPECT INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND ON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE (DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT)...
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO. IT WILL ALSO BECOME
BREEZY TODAY...AND WIND ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. ALONG THE COAST...
ELEVATED TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE (DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT)...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO (RAINFALL TOTALS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE). RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ON SATURDAY...
AND A MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS SHOULD BE RAIN FREE IN TIME FOR
ANY EARLY EVENING OUTDOOR PLANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
108 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    16 S STOWELL            29.55N  94.39W
10/31/2015                   GALVESTON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER WITH DEBRIS ON THE ROAD FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 124 AND 87 IN HIGH
            ISLAND. TXDOT HAS THE ROAD SHUT DOWN WITH SIGNS IN
            PLACE. CALL FROM GALVESTON COUNTY EMC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500516

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