River Flood Warning 176, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN TRAINING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN
MATAGORDA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF FORT BEND
COUNTY...THE HOUSTON AREA...AND ACROSS LIBERTY COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED TRAINING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL EXPECTING RAINS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF QUIET
DAYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS RISE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. 42
&&

.MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH THIS MORNING
TO GENERALLY PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOT...GUSTING TO 35 KNOT...OFFSHORE
WINDS. ONCE THE GALE WARNING FALLS OFF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...GULF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...CAUTION FLAGS
FOR BOTH BAYS. AS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP ACROSS THE
TEXAS COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS WILL WEAKEN
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AREAWIDE RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WINDS AND CHURN UP ROUGH SEAS AS LATE AS
EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO OFFSHORE. THESE LIGHT NORTHERLIES
WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE TUESDAY...OR ONCE EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND EXPANDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERN DISTURBANCES RIDING UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A GULF-CENTERED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY'S RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  59  75  55  78 /  80  20  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  63  76  57  78 /  90  20  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  67  75  65  74 /  90  30  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1
     PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO
     60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-011300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
409 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAINS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
108 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     COASTAL FLOOD    16 S STOWELL            29.55N  94.39W
10/31/2015                   GALVESTON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER WITH DEBRIS ON THE ROAD FOR APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES
            NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 124 AND 87 IN HIGH
            ISLAND. TXDOT HAS THE ROAD SHUT DOWN WITH SIGNS IN
            PLACE. CALL FROM GALVESTON COUNTY EMC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500516

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE BROOKSIDE VILLAGE  29.60N  95.30W
10/31/2015                   HARRIS             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODING REPORTED IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON
            AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 610 SOUTH LOOP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500517

42

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
400 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HOUSTON                 29.77N  95.39W
10/31/2015                   HARRIS             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            HOUSTON FIRE DEPT CONDUCTING HIGH WATER RESCUES IN
            SOUTHEAST HOUSTON. REPORTS OF 3-4 INCHES OF WATER
            ENTERING FIRE STATION 26 NEAR TELEPHONE AND BELLFORT.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500518

BLOOD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

TXZ195>197-311100-
BURLESON TX-WASHINGTON TX-BRAZOS TX-
437 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRAZOS...BURLESON AND WESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

AT 433 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROSEBUD TO 6 MILES
WEST OF FEDOR TO NEAR KINGSBURY...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS
LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF BURLESON...
BRAZOS...AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES BETWEEN 445 AM AND 545 AM.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...CALDWELL...SOMERVILLE...SNOOK...KURTEN...
BURTON...WIXON VALLEY...KYLE FIELD...LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM...
WELLBORN...DEANVILLE...CHRIESMAN...QUARRY AND LYONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3073 9662 3070 9656 3074 9646 3091 9635
      3096 9625 3060 9620 3006 9662 3015 9665
      3016 9669 3016 9679 3020 9674 3024 9673
      3025 9669 3030 9664 3032 9669 3032 9674
      3039 9679 3047 9690 3049 9690 3054 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0933Z 244DEG 27KT 3112 9699 3033 9716 2958 9778

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
455 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 AM     TORNADO          DANBURY                 29.23N  95.35W
10/31/2015                   BRAZORIA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            OVERTURNED TRAILERS AND POSSIBLE INJURIES IN THE WEST
            SIDE OF DANBURY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500519

42