River Flood Warning 182, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
701 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

.AVIATION...
AN ACTIVE MORNING WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF THESE
SEVERE...AFFECTING THE REGION SINCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN FORT BEND...SOUTH
CENTRAL HARRIS...AND INTO LIBERTY COUNTIES PUT DOWN AN AVERAGE 4
TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IN A RELATIVELY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THAT
CAUSED FLASH FLOODING IN AND AROUND ELLINGTON FIELD AND HOBBY
AIRPORTS. DISCRETE CELLS IN KLBX AND KHOU'S VICINITY WERE SPINNING
AT THE TIME OF TAF EDITING...HELD OFF ON +FC AND KEPT IN VCTS AS
THESE CELLS HAVE SINCE TRAVELED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A RAGGED
LINE OF CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL HAVE TEMPO'S IN THIS PACKAGE TO
ACCOUNT FOR PERIODIC IFR VSBYS AND HIGH VRB WINDS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CELLS BETWEEN 13-17Z. LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
BY 19-21Z...MAYBE A LIGHT SHOWER INTO EVENING. AN EVENING COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD KEEP SURFACE WINDS UP JUST ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION...LIKELY AN OVERNIGHT VFR
MID-UPPER LEVEL STRATUS DECK. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN BOTH COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN TRAINING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN
MATAGORDA COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF FORT BEND
COUNTY...THE HOUSTON AREA...AND ACROSS LIBERTY COUNTY. RAINFALL RATES
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR ARE OCCURRING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND
ASSOCIATED TRAINING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAIN...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. STILL EXPECTING RAINS TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY...CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES PROBABLY IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
ONCE THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE A COUPLE OF QUIET
DAYS WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA AND
MOISTURE LEVELS RISE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. 42

MARINE...
THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH THIS MORNING
TO GENERALLY PRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOT...GUSTING TO 35 KNOT...OFFSHORE
WINDS. ONCE THE GALE WARNING FALLS OFF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...GULF
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING...CAUTION FLAGS
FOR BOTH BAYS. AS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS SURFACE LOW LIFTS UP ACROSS THE
TEXAS COASTLINE THROUGH THE DAY...OVERALL WINDS AND SEAS WILL WEAKEN
IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKER GRADIENT. AREAWIDE RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS
WILL QUICKLY STRENGTHEN WINDS AND CHURN UP ROUGH SEAS AS LATE AS
EARLY SUNDAY. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST SUNDAY...A TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL VEER WINDS AROUND TO OFFSHORE. THESE LIGHT NORTHERLIES
WILL VEER BACK AROUND TO ONSHORE TUESDAY...OR ONCE EASTERN U.S. HIGH
PRESSURE ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND EXPANDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WATERS. WEAK SOUTHWESTERN DISTURBANCES RIDING UP THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A GULF-CENTERED MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE
WEDNESDAY'S RAIN CHANCES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  59  75  55  78 /  80  20  20  10   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              80  63  76  57  78 /  90  20  20  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  67  75  65  74 /  90  30  20  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
     CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
     HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
     MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
     WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT
     20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
409 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-011300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
409 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WHERE ANY TRAINING OCCURS. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. RAINS WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST
TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
808 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 AM     TORNADO          2 NW HIGHLANDS          29.83N  95.08W
10/31/2015                   HARRIS             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            HOME DAMAGE REPORTED TO 10 TO 30 HOMES IN THE RIO VILLA
            SUBDIVISION.

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER HGX1500532

42

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