Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 19, 2015, 3:23 PM EDT for Buncombe County, McDowell County, Yancey County, North Carolina. It was in force for 52 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2015, 3:23 PM EDT (19:23 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2015, 4:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 52 min
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
Counties Buncombe County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:27 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 3:36 PM EDT | HAIL 0.75 | Swannanoa, NC | BRIEF MARBLE TO PENNY SIZED HAIL AT WARREN WILSON COLLEGE. HAD SOME WIND BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 213 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 32 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -222 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1354 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 34 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
161 WUUS52 KGSP 191923 SVRGSP NCC021-111-199-192015- /O.NEW.KGSP.SV.W.0096.150619T1923Z-150619T2015Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 323 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 415 PM EDT * AT 323 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF EAST ASHEVILLE...OR OVER WARREN WILSON COLLEGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLACK MOUNTAIN...SWANNANOA...FAIRVIEW IN BUNCOMBE COUNTY...OLD FORT...B.R. PARKWAY...CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...B.R. PARKWAY...EAST ASHEVILLE TO CRAGGY GARDENS...WARREN WILSON COLLEGE...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...MONTREAT AND SUGAR HILL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM. BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM. PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1... 800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. && LAT...LON 3557 8193 3551 8246 3568 8254 3584 8215 TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 247DEG 13KT 3562 8243 $$ RWH
2 follow-up statements
027 WWUS52 KGSP 191947 SVSGSP SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 347 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 NCC021-111-199-192015- /O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150619T2015Z/ YANCEY NC-BUNCOMBE NC-MCDOWELL NC- 347 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY...NORTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES... AT 346 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES EAST OF EAST ASHEVILLE...OR NEAR SWANNANOA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BLACK MOUNTAIN...SWANNANOA...OLD FORT...B.R. PARKWAY...CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...MONTREAT...SUGAR HILL...GLENWOOD...BUSICK AND FERO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM. BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM. PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1... 800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED. && LAT...LON 3552 8239 3572 8244 3584 8215 3557 8193 TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 257DEG 10KT 3561 8237 $$ RWH
128
WWUS52 KGSP 192003
SVSGSP
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NCC199-192013-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150619T2015Z/
YANCEY NC-
403 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
LAT...LON 3557 8193 3556 8234 3572 8233 3573 8231
3573 8229 3571 8228 3570 8228 3570 8226
3571 8224 3574 8219 3578 8216 3579 8217
3582 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 274DEG 14KT 3561 8226
$$
NCC021-111-192015-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-150619T2015Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-MCDOWELL NC-
403 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM EDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES...
AT 403 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES EAST OF EAST ASHEVILLE...OR NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BLACK MOUNTAIN...OLD FORT...B.R. PARKWAY...CRAGGY TO LITTLE
SWITZERLAND...MONTREAT...SUGAR HILL...FERO...PLEASANT GARDENS...
GLENWOOD...MARION AND BUSICK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. BRIEF LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN
INTERIOR ROOM.
BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BLOW DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES OVER SMALL
AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. SEEK SHELTER
INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.
PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...OR BY POSTING ON OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
IT USING HASHTAG NWSGSP. YOUR MESSAGE SHOULD DESCRIBE THE EVENT AND
THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT OCCURRED.
&&
LAT...LON 3557 8193 3556 8234 3572 8233 3573 8231
3573 8229 3571 8228 3570 8228 3570 8226
3571 8224 3574 8219 3578 8216 3579 8217
3582 8213
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 274DEG 14KT 3561 8226
$$
RWHWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 19, 2:59 PM EDT, 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 19, 2:59 PM EDT, 24 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIKELY
BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES STILL
ABOVE NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY GET
REESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND PERSIST FOR
MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT FRIDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HEATING WORKS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. CURRENTLY...ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABLE
TO ACHIEVE SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND DAMAGE REPORTS HAVING BEEN
RECEIVED FROM AREAS OF WESTERN NC. THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY
EXHIBITS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE TO YIELD PULSE SEVERE STORMS. GUIDANCE TENDS TO
FAVOR WESTERN NC FOR THE BEST COVERAGE WHERE UPPER HEIGHTS FALLS ARE
BEST DUE TO THE FLATTENED UPPER ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE...THE FCST
FEATURES SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MTNS...EASTWARD ALONG THE ENTIRE I40 CORRIDOR INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT...UPSTATE
SC...AND NORTHEAST GA...ISOLATED/SCATTERED POPS ARE FAVORED.
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT...MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WILL INTRUDE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPS. NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
THANKS TO PASSING HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO VEERED FLOW AS THE
PG INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CYCLONE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO RAMP UP AROUND LATE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTING IN THE
20-30MPH RANGE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AS HEATING BUILDS GIVING WAY TO LOW LEVEL CU.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE YET ANOTHER UNSTABLE DAY THAT WILL LIKELY YIELD
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THUS THE POPS REFLECT SUCH WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ADDITIONALLY...AS
THE UPPER/SFC WAVES APPROACH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BILL...SHEAR WILL GREATLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH THE
BEST SHEAR PRESENT OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO WESTERN NC. 12Z
NAM BUF SOUNDINGS FROM KAVL/KTNB INDICATE APPROXIMATELY 200M2/S2
0-3KM SRH AMONGST STEEP LAPSE RATES SUPPORTIVE OF 2K JOULES SB
CAPE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE CAPE VALUES ARE A BIT
OVERDONE AS SKIES WILL BE INCREASINGLY CLOUDY THUS INHIBITING
HEATING. ALL SAID...THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME ORGANIZED/SEVERE
WITH SOME EMBEDDED ROTATION POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN NC MOUNTAINS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO BEING A
POSSIBILITY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE LOWER TERRAIN EXPECTING SHEAR TO BE REDUCED
SOMEWHAT THEREFORE ITS LESS LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AS
ORGANIZED. QPF ACROSS THE MTNS IS ALSO ELEVATED...HOWEVER GUIDANCE
FAVORS A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM THUS ONLY ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND
OR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE/EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN TODAY
THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOWERING THICKNESS VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE MODELS HAVE COME TO A CONSENSUS WITH
MOVING THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
BILL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN CARRY IT OFF TO THE
EAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SO...AFTER SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO RAMP THE
PRECIP PROB DOWN TO JUST A SMALL CHANCE NEAR THE TN BORDER...WHERE
LEFTOVER MECHANICAL LIFT COULD FORCE A FEW PATCHES OF PRECIP INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FROM THAT POINT ONWARD...WE HAVE A W/NW FLOW THRU A
FAIRLY DEEP LAYER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW E OF THE MTNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HAVE TWO EFFECTS...ONE
WILL BE TO RAISE TEMPS...AND THE OTHER WILL BE TO PROVIDE SOME SMALL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH A WEAK CAP. HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A
BIT ABOVE THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHTLY WARMER
TREND. MIN TEMPS WILL ALSO BE QUITE MILD. HAVE ALSO LIMITED THE
PRECIP TO SLIGHT CHANCE E OF THE MTNS. THE NC MTNS COULD SEE
SCATTERED COVERAGE BOTH DAYS. IF WE CAN GET SOMETHING TO GO...THERE
WILL BE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRI...IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AT THE EARLIEST. BROAD
AND STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TUE TO THE
SOUTHEAST THU. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT A STRONG
DIURNAL SIGNAL DURING THE PERIOD...BUT THE RIDGE APPEARS TO PROVIDE
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE CAPPING EAST OF THE PIEDMONT TO MAKE FOR MOSTLY
JUST SCHC POPS. FASTER FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE COULD POTENTIALLY CARRY
REMNANT MCS ACTIVITY AND/OR EDDIES OUT OF THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE GFS DEPICTS ONE SUCH FEATURE MOVING NEARBY
DURING THE DAY WED. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE OF THE PULSE VARIETY
WHERE IT OCCURS...AS BOTH CAPE/DCAPE WILL BE STRONG BUT SHEAR QUITE
WEAK.
MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE UPPER
PATTERN AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
EWD ACRS THE SUN BELT. LATEST PROGS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL HOLD OFF
THE FRONT AS IT CENTERS OVER OUR CWFA THU...WITH THE FRONT FINALLY
SAGGING THRU LATE FRI. TEMPS LOOK TO TOP OUT NEAR 100 ACRS THE
PIEDMONT TUE-THU WITH RECORDS MOST ENDANGERED WED AND THU. HEAT
INDICES ARE STILL IN QUESTION AS PREVIOUS SHIFT NOTED...WITH
DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY MIXING OUT MORE THAN GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS FOR.
WILL NOT YET HIGHLIGHT EXCESSIVE HEAT POTENTIAL IN HWO. BY FRIDAY
TEMPS SHOULD COOL A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR TSRA RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIALIZED TAF VFR AMIDST SLOWLY VEERING SW FLOW AND SCT LOW VFR
CU. WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY VEER NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A MESO
HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO INTRUDE
ACROSS WESTERN NC. LIKEWISE...CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFORE MENTIONED BOUNDARY. THIS WAS HANDLED
WITH A 4HR TEMPO...THAT COULD BE EXTENDED FURTHER. BEYOND THAT
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT AND HEATING IS LOST. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCT AND LIFT TO
MID LEVELS BY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERED E TO ESE. LASTLY...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND INCREASE AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEP
BILL SLIDE ACROSS KY ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED PGF...THUS 20KT-25KT
GUSTING IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND LIKELY IN THE NEXT
TAF CYCLE.
ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING ASIDE
FOR AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG WITH VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS AT THE NC SITES
AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING. INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH TSRA
TEMPOS AT THE NC SITES WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE...AND
VCTS MENTIONS AT THE SC SITES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE ATM BECOMES WORKED
OVER. LOW VFR CU WILL SCT TO MID LEVELS ASIDE FOR AT KAVL WHERE MTN
VALLEY MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MESO HIGH SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTH...YET WILL VEER/INCREASE SHARPLY BY LATE MORNING ON OUT OF
THE SE THEN SW AS OLD TROPICAL DEP BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
20KT-30KT GUSTING IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL AS
ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESIDE. MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND
IN MTN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 96% MED 65% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 96% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH...
GSP 103 1887
CLT 102 1944
AVL 92 1931/1933
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...CDG
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JP/WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...HGHazardous weather outlook, Jun 19, 5:14 AM EDT, 10 hours 9 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 514 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510- SCZ001>003-200915- RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY- MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL- BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 514 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-200915- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION- GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG- CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 514 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS. IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED AREA AND OUT OF THE SUN AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE. IF YOU DO GO OUTSIDE...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...AND WEAR LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 19, 1:38 PM EDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NCZ056-504-191830-
GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN BURKE
AND SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
AT 138 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKORY...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILDEBRAN...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...NEWTON...HILDEBRAN...MOUNTAIN VIEW...ICARD...LONGVIEW...
CONOVER...PROPST...COOKSVILLE AND STARTOWN.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3572 8124 3556 8127 3560 8154 3564 8158
3572 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 271DEG 11KT 3566 8145
MOORESpecial weather statement, Jun 19, 2:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 20 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NCZ508-510-191830-
EASTERN POLK NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
203 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
RUTHERFORD AND EASTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
AT 202 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
IN ADDITION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...BOSTIC...CAROLEEN...
HENRIETTA...GREEN CREEK...MILL SPRING AND HARRIS.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3541 8177 3522 8179 3519 8213 3519 8216
3535 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1802Z 252DEG 13KT 3529 8208
MOORESpecial weather statement, Jun 19, 2:11 PM EDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NCZ501-502-191845-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS NC-GREATER CALDWELL NC-
211 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...
AT 210 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF BLOWING ROCK...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LENOIR...PATTERSON...EDGEMONT...UPTON AND GLOBE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147
3593 8152 3598 8179 3607 8174 3607 8176
3609 8177 3612 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 1810Z 276DEG 10KT 3604 8168
MOORESpecial weather statement, Jun 19, 2:31 PM EDT, 52 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NCZ056-191900-
CATAWBA NC-
231 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CATAWBA COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM EDT...
AT 231 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES WEST OF NEWTON...OR NEAR MOUNTAIN VIEW...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...NEWTON...CONOVER...LONGVIEW...MAIDEN...CLAREMONT...MOUNTAIN
VIEW...HICKORY REGIONAL AIRPORT...CATAWBA AND ST. STEPHENS.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3575 8109 3555 8108 3557 8153 3559 8152
3569 8142 3575 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 273DEG 15KT 3565 8131
MOORESpecial weather statement, Jun 19, 2:40 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
NCZ504-506-508-191915-
GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-GREATER BURKE NC-
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
BURKE...NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...
AT 240 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTON...OR 5 MILES SOUTH OF GLEN ALPINE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORGANTON...GLEN ALPINE...SOUTH MOUNTAINS STATE PARK...DREXEL...
DYSARTSVILLE...OAK HILL AND PLEASANT GROVE.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
LAT...LON 3585 8166 3557 8153 3556 8158 3557 8160
3556 8166 3558 8169 3554 8169 3551 8186
3570 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 244DEG 14KT 3565 8180
MOORESpecial weather statement, Jun 19, 3:15 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 NCZ035-056-502-504-191945- GREATER BURKE NC-ALEXANDER NC-CATAWBA NC-GREATER CALDWELL NC- 315 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN BURKE...CENTRAL CATAWBA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT... AT 315 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF MORGANTON...OR NEAR VALDESE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HICKORY...MORGANTON...NEWTON...LENOIR...ST. STEPHENS...CONOVER... LONGVIEW...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS AND VALDESE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS. DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL CAN CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO VEHICLES. CONSIDER MOVING VEHICLES TO A COVERED STORAGE AREA BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS... STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES. && LAT...LON 3570 8117 3561 8162 3581 8171 3596 8128 TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 249DEG 24KT 3573 8157 RWH
The office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 12:46 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Davie | 29 min |
| Jun 19, 2:24 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Rowan | 36 min |
| Jun 19, 12:59 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Polk | 31 min |
| Jun 19, 1:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Polk, Rutherford | 47 min |
| Jun 19, 1:38 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Catawba | 52 min |
| Jun 19, 1:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | McDowell, Rutherford | 46 min |
| Jun 19, 2:03 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Polk | 27 min |
| Jun 19, 2:11 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Caldwell | 34 min |
| Jun 19, 2:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Caldwell | 47 min |
| Jun 19, 2:31 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Catawba | 29 min |
| Jun 19, 2:40 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Burke | 35 min |
| Jun 19, 3:15 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Caldwell | 30 min |
| Jun 19, 3:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba | 48 min |
| Jun 19, 3:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Catawba, Iredell, Lincoln, Mecklenburg | 46 min |
| Jun 19, 4:10 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Iredell | 35 min |
| Jun 19, 4:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Davie, Rowan | 41 min |
| Jun 19, 4:48 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cabarrus | 27 min |
| Jun 19, 5:01 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Davie, Rowan | 29 min |
| Jun 19, 5:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Davie, Rowan | 42 min |
| Jun 19, 5:13 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Cabarrus, Mecklenburg | 32 min |
| Jun 19, 5:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Cabarrus, Mecklenburg, Rowan, Union | 46 min |
| Jun 19, 6:05 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson | 40 min |
| Jun 19, 6:27 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Yancey | 33 min |
| Jun 19, 6:47 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | Union | 43 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.