Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
156 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL MOVE UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE LIKELY
BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT BREAK IN
THE HEAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES
STILL ABOVE NORMAL. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GRADUALLY GET
REESTABLISHED THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. VERY HOT CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AND PERSIST
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 155 PM EDT FRIDAY...TWEAKED POPS/TEMPS/SKY TO ACCOUNT FOR MOST
RECENT RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE
IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM UNCHANGED.   FULL FCST DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW
WITHIN THE HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MAX TEMPS AND HI VALUES WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS DROP ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AS
THE H5 RIDGE FLATTENS WHILE LLVL THICKNESSES LOWER AS WELL. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE LOWER THAN RECENT LEVELS...ESP ACROSS THE I-40
CORRIDOR. WITH TD/S MIXING OUT THIS AFTERNOON...HI LEVELS OVER THE
NRN ZONES WILL BE CLOSE TO AMBIENT TEMPS...WHILE THE HI AROUND AND
SOUTH OF I-85 WILL REACH THE U90S TO ARND 100 F. SO...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH HI MENTION IN THE HWO THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM INITIATING ACROSS THE NRN ZONES WHERE
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LOSS OF A MLVL CAP ALLOW MODERATE SBCAPE
VALUES IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. STORMS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE MTNS/FTHILLS...THEN ISOL/SCT ALONG NE GA AND THE SC/NC PIEDMONT.
PULSE SEVERE WILL BE THE MODE...WITH MORE OF A WIND THREAT DUE TO
PRECIP LOADING AND HIGH SFC-BASED LAPSE RATES.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL AGAIN WANE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH
ISOL LINGERING ACTIVITY TIL MIDNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE SRN ZONES DUE
TO A SFC HIGH PUSHING INTO THE NC FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL ADV INTO THE SW MTNS AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS
OF TS BILL WHICH COULD KEEP -SHRA/TSTMS ACTIVE THROUGH DAYBREAK. MIN
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...YET STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABV NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST MID 90S
TEMPS ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WEST IN GREATER CLOUDINESS. THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM BILL WILL CROSS THE
SRN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS MAINLY DURING THE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT TIME
FRAME. THE BEST DEEP LAYER DPVA WILL PASS N OF THE REGION THROUGH
THE VIRGINIAS...BUT IMPROVING S TO SW FLOW SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST
NUMEROUS SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN/WRN MTNS AND POSSIBLY
THE NRN TIER OF WRN NC THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES
INCREASE...BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AND
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE MAINLY NIGHTTIME PASSAGE WILL KEEP SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO CURTAIL THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT. THE
NRN MTNS COULD SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BUT THE RELATIVELY SHORT
LIVED NATURE OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD CURTAIL ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO ISSUES.

NW UPSLOPE FLOW MOISTURE MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE MTNS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT A DRYING NW FLOW IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH LATE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE VARYING DEGREES OF MODEL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTN...THE GFS PROFILES HAVE A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION
ALOFT. WILL THUS HOLD COVERAGE AT CHC WESTERN MTNS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
SE SECTIONS THROUGH LATE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL START TO RISE AGAIN
BY LAKE WEEKEND BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH PLENTY OF MID 90S
EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE HEAT SHOULD RETURN IN EARNEST NEXT
WEEK. A BROAD WRN RIDGE AND ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED HIGH LOW LEVEL THETA E VALUES MAY PERMIT
SB CAPE TO REACH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION MON AFTN...BUT
WARM CAPPING TEMPS ALOFT MAY CONTINUE TO CURTAIL CONVECTION. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME RESURGENT FROM THE W TUE THROUGH
THU...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS NOW LITTLE INDICATION OF MUCH
BACKDOORING OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 TEMPS
WILL BECOME COMMON EAST OF THE MTNS TUE TO THU...WITH LOWER 90S IN
THE MTN VALLEYS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH COULD LEAD TO BETTER THAN CLIMO
COVERAGE AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE SKY COVER TO CAP TEMPS.
HOWEVER...MAINLY DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS A
BETTER BET.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF MVFR TSRA RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
INITIALIZED TAF VFR AMIDST SLOWLY VEERING SW FLOW AND SCT LOW VFR
CU.  WINDS WILL CONTINUALLY VEER NW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A MESO
HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH ALLOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY TO INTRUDE
ACROSS WESTERN NC.  LIKEWISE...CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NC
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...POTENTIALLY AIDED BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFORE MENTIONED BOUNDARY.  THIS WAS HANDLED
WITH A 4HR TEMPO...THAT COULD BE EXTENDED FURTHER.  BEYOND THAT
EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS
OVERNIGHT AND HEATING IS LOST.  SKIES WILL GRADUALLY SCT AND LIFT TO
MID LEVELS BY MORNING WITH WINDS VEERED E TO ESE.  LASTLY...WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND INCREASE AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEP
BILL SLIDE ACROSS KY ALLOWING FOR ENHANCED PGF...THUS 20KT-25KT
GUSTING IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE...AND LIKELY IN THE NEXT
TAF CYCLE.

ELSEWHERE...MUCH THE SAME AS KCLT ABOVE WITH VFR PREVAILING ASIDE
FOR AFTERNOON TSRA ALONG WITH VISB/CIG RESTRICTIONS AT THE NC SITES
AND KAND SATURDAY MORNING.  INITIALIZED ALL TAFS VFR WITH TSRA
TEMPOS AT THE NC SITES WHERE CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE...AND
VCTS MENTIONS AT THE SC SITES.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LOWER INTO
THE EVENING HOURS AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE ATM BECOMES WORKED
OVER.  LOW VFR CU WILL SCT TO MID LEVELS ASIDE FOR AT KAVL WHERE MTN
VALLEY MVFR/IFR STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE.  WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED MESO HIGH SLIDES BY TO
THE NORTH...YET WILL VEER/INCREASE SHARPLY BY LATE MORNING ON OUT OF
THE SE THEN SW AS OLD TROPICAL DEP BILL APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
20KT-30KT GUSTING IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DIURNAL AS
ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SETS UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW
WORK WEEK.  AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NC WHERE THE LEAST SUBSIDENCE WILL
RESIDE.  MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG AND/OR STRATUS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL THE PREVIOUS DAY...AND
IN MTN VALLEYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH 100%     HIGH  97%     MED   64%     HIGH  94%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH  94%     HIGH  97%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY JUNE 19TH...

 GSP  103 1887
 CLT  102 1944
 AVL   92 1931/1933

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...CDG/SBK
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...CDG
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-
SCZ001>003-200915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
514 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS...THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA...THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-200915-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
514 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE
CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS.

IN ADDITION...HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S WILL
COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TO PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA. STAY
IN AN AIR CONDITIONED AREA AND OUT OF THE SUN AS MUCH AS
POSSIBLE. IF YOU DO GO OUTSIDE...DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...AND WEAR
LIGHT COLORED AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             1 NE AVERY CREEK        35.47N 82.56W
06/18/2015  M1.75 INCH       BUNCOMBE           NC   COCORAHS

            LARGEST STONES. AVERAGE SIZE WAS 1.25 INCH DIAMETER.

&&

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

SCZ001-004-191745-
GREATER OCONEE SC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS SC-
1253 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL OCONEE
COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

AT 1253 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTH OF TOCCOA...OR 4 MILES EAST OF TALLULAH GORGE STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SENECA...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...SALEM...LAKE KEOWEE AND LONG CREEK.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3476 8332 3479 8332 3491 8291 3482 8290
      3479 8288 3474 8290 3473 8287 3467 8285
      3463 8325 3465 8329 3467 8331 3468 8334
      3469 8334 3470 8335 3473 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1653Z 255DEG 21KT 3471 8328

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1259 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

NCZ508>510-191730-
EASTERN POLK NC-GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-POLK MOUNTAINS NC-
1259 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL RUTHERFORD
AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EDT...

AT 1259 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS...TRYON...MILL SPRING...LAKE ADGER...GREEN CREEK AND GREEN
HILL.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3542 8204 3520 8195 3520 8226 3534 8230
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 253DEG 16KT 3528 8219

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

NCZ056-504-191830-
GREATER BURKE NC-CATAWBA NC-
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN BURKE
AND SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 138 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HICKORY...OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILDEBRAN...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HICKORY...NEWTON...HILDEBRAN...MOUNTAIN VIEW...ICARD...LONGVIEW...
CONOVER...PROPST...COOKSVILLE AND STARTOWN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3572 8124 3556 8127 3560 8154 3564 8158
      3572 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 1738Z 271DEG 11KT 3566 8145

MOORE