River Flood Warning 9, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

878 
WGUS82 KGSP 030411
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1211 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina and South Carolina...

  SOUTH FORK CATAWBA RIVER In North Carolina At Lowell affecting 
  Gaston County.
  SALUDA RIVER In South Carolina At West Pelzer affecting Anderson 
  and Greenville Counties.
  SALUDA RIVER In South Carolina Near Greenville affecting Greenville 
  and Pickens Counties.
  BROAD RIVER In South Carolina Near Blacksburg affecting 
  Cherokee and York Counties.
  BROAD RIVER In North Carolina At Boiling Springs affecting 
  Cleveland County.

.Runoff from heavy rain expected Friday through Sunday will cause 
the river to rise above minor flood stage.

Remember...river stage forecasts are based on actual rainfall and 
forecasted 48-hour rainfall. There is still plenty of uncertainty
with this event and additional changes to the forecasted rainfall
are likely. These changes may increase the forecasted crest so 
please stay tuned to the latest forecasts and warnings from the 
National Weather Service.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

Please report high water...flooding and landslidesto the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or byposting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtagnwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
thespecific location where it occurred.

&&

SCC021-091-040411-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.151004T0800Z-151005T0717Z/
/BBGS1.1.ER.151004T0800Z.151004T1200Z.151004T1917Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Broad River In Sc Near Blacksburg
* from late Saturday night to late Sunday night.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 5.5 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above minor flood stage 
  early Sunday morning and crest at 16.6 feet. The river is expected to 
  fall below minor flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Impacts...At 16.0 feet...River and Little Hope Roads near Highway 29
  will be flooded along with farmland near the river.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8159 3518 8156 3509 8152 3507 8161 3516 8167

$$

NCC045-040411-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.151004T0112Z-151005T1200Z/
/BSPN7.2.ER.151004T0112Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0000Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Broad River In North Carolina At Boiling Springs
* from Saturday evening to Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 4.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
* Minor flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Moderate flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above minor flood stage 
  Saturday night and crest at 14.4 feet. The river is expected to 
  fall below minor flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Water will reach the 
  steps of mobile homes near the gage site. Local campgrounds near 
  the river will also be affected.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8173 3524 8159 3516 8167 3520 8176

$$

NCC071-040411-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0009.151003T2248Z-151004T1630Z/
/LOWN7.1.ER.151003T2248Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0430Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the South Fork Catawba River At Lowell
* from Saturday evening to Sunday afternoon.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 3.5 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above minor flood stage 
  Saturday morning and crest at 12.2 feet. The river is expected to 
  fall below minor flood stage by Sunday evening.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...The river will overflow its banks and begin
  to flood the Riverside Park and portions of Goat Island Park. Water
  approachs Riverside Drive near 5th and 6th Streets in Cramerton.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8126 3537 8108 3518 8102 3518 8110

$$

SCC007-045-040411-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0010.151004T1912Z-151005T1930Z/
/WEPS1.1.ER.151004T1912Z.151005T0000Z.151005T0730Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Saluda River At West Pelzer
* from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* There is no current observed data.
* Bankfull stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above minor flood stage 
  Sunday morning and crest at 12.4 feet. The river is expected to 
  fall below minor flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage is reached. Further flooding of
  woodlands and fields downstream of gage will occurr. Flooding of a 
  home near culbertson court and arden road will begin (greenville 
  county). Homes on adger street (anderson county) will begin to 
  flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8250 3478 8241 3473 8242 3461 8238 3459 8249
      3464 8252             

$$

SCC045-077-040411-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0011.151004T0410Z-151005T1440Z/
/GSLS1.1.ER.151004T0410Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0240Z.NO/
1211 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Saluda River Near Greenville
* from late Saturday night to Monday morning.
* At 10 PM Friday the stage was 4.2 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above minor flood stage 
  late Saturday evening and crest at 11.9 feet. The river is expected to 
  fall below minor flood stage by early Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet...Homes will be surrounded by water on 
  Riverview Circle south of Highway 123 and parts of Riverview Drive 
  will begin to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8250 3486 8253 3486 8243 3478 8241

$$

775 
WGUS82 KGSP 031723
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...South Carolina...


  French Broad River At Blantyre affecting Henderson and Transylvania 
  Counties.
  
  French Broad River Near Fletcher affecting Buncombe and Henderson 
  Counties.
  
  French Broad River At Marshall affecting Madison County.
  South Fork Catawba River In Nc At Lowell affecting Gaston County.
  
  Saluda River At West Pelzer affecting Anderson and Greenville 
  Counties.
  
  Saluda River Near Greenville affecting Greenville and Pickens 
  Counties.
  
  Broad River In Sc Near Blacksburg affecting Cherokee and York 
  Counties.
  
  Broad River In Nc At Boiling Springs affecting Cleveland County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers
in North Carolina...

  French Broad River At Asheville affecting Buncombe County.
  
  Swannanoa River In Nc At Biltmore affecting Buncombe County.
  
  Tuckasegee River At Bryson City affecting Swain County.
  
  Pigeon River In Nc At Canton affecting Haywood County.

  
.Runoff from continuing heavy rain will result in the river 
remaining above flood stage.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

Please report high water...flooding and landslidesto the National 
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free...1...
800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1...or byposting on our Facebook page...or tweet 
it using hashtagnwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and 
thespecific location where it occurred.

&&

NCC021-041723-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0012.151004T0941Z-151005T0742Z/
/AVLN7.1.ER.151004T0941Z.151004T1200Z.151004T1942Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the French Broad River At Asheville.
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At Noon Saturday the stage was 4.7 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 6.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Impact...At 9.5 feet...Flood stage, areas between riverside road 
  and the river near lyman street and south of old burnsville hill 
  road will be flooded. Parts of emma road near craven street and 
  amboy road will be flooded.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8262 3560 8261 3569 8265 3570 8257 3558 8255
      3550 8254             

$$

NCC089-175-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0003.151004T0012Z-151007T0515Z/
/BLAN7.2.ER.151004T0012Z.151005T0000Z.151006T1715Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning continues for 
 The French Broad River At Blantyre.
* Until late Tuesday night.
* At 1230 PM Saturday the stage was...12.9 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet...The river overtops the railroad tracks and 
  will start to flood highway 64. A trailer park on river ridge road 
  will be affected and buildings north of grove bridge road will 
  likely flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3537 8250 3529 8254 3521 8267
      3526 8274 3534 8261             

$$

NCC021-089-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0004.151003T2300Z-151005T2024Z/
/FLCN7.1.ER.151003T2300Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0824Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the French Broad River Near Fletcher
* from this evening to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 9.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Homes and buildings along the river start 
  to get water in backyards.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8257 3541 8257 3550 8262 3550 8254 3540 8250
      3537 8250             

$$

NCC115-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0005.151004T0738Z-151005T1700Z/
/MARN7.1.ER.151004T0738Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0500Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the French Broad River At Marshall.
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 4.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet...The river will be close to the top of the 
  railroad tracks and start to flood areas between highway 70 and the
  river. Flooding of buildings along back street and on 
  blennerhassett island will begin.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 8265 3576 8270 3582 8277 3583 8271 3578 8263
      3570 8257             

$$

SCC021-091-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0006.151004T1727Z-151005T1845Z/
/BBGS1.1.ER.151004T1727Z.151005T0000Z.151005T0645Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Broad River In Sc Near Blacksburg.
* from Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 6.8 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet...River and little hope roads near highway 29
  will be flooded along with farmland near the river. Flooding at 
  this level will be similar to flooding that occurred on july 8, 
  2005.

&&

LAT...LON 3524 8159 3518 8156 3509 8152 3507 8161 3516 8167


$$

NCC045-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0007.151004T0753Z-151005T1800Z/
/BSPN7.2.ER.151004T0753Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0600Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Broad River In Nc At Boiling Springs
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Moderate flood stage. Water will reach the 
  steps of mobile homes near the gage site. Local campgrounds near 
  the river will also be affected. Flooding at this level will be 
  similar to flooding that occurred on july 8, 2005.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 8173 3524 8159 3516 8167 3520 8176


$$

NCC021-041200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0008.151004T0000Z-151004T1200Z/
/BLTN7.1.ER.151004T0000Z.151004T0000Z.151004T0000Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Swannanoa River In Nc At Biltmore
* from this evening to Sunday morning.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 8.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Flood stage- the river will cause backwater
  effects on sweeten creek, which will approach some buildings along 
  garfield road. Water will begin flooding parts of nc 81, caledonia 
  road to glendale road and approachs thompson and lodge roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8255 3563 8255 3563 8245 3558 8244


$$

NCC173-041723-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0014.151004T1200Z-151005T1232Z/
/TKSN7.1.ER.151004T1200Z.151004T1800Z.151005T0032Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Tuckasegee River At Bryson City. 
* from Sunday morning to Monday morning.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 3.5 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet...The river will overflow it's banks in the 
  park downtown, and low lying aeas along island and collins streets 
  will begin to flood. Toot hollow branch that flows into the river 
  will likely overflow its banks and flood areas along the branch 
  especially along waters street.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8339 3543 8339 3541 8348 3544 8348 3544 8342


$$

NCC071-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0009.151004T0400Z-151004T2200Z/
/LOWN7.1.ER.151004T0400Z.151004T0600Z.151004T1000Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the South Fork Catawba River In Nc At Lowell. 
* from late tonight to Sunday evening.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 4.8 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...The river will overflow its banks and begin
  to flood the riverside park and portions of goat island park. Water
  approachs riverside drive near 5th and 6th streets in cramerton.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8126 3537 8108 3518 8102 3518 8110


$$

SCC007-045-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0010.151004T1434Z-151005T2100Z/
/WEPS1.1.ER.151004T1434Z.151005T0000Z.151005T0900Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Saluda River At West Pelzer.
* from Sunday morning to Monday afternoon.
* At 09 AM Saturday the stage was 5.0 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 9.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Flood stage is reached. Further flooding of
  woodlands and fields downstream of gage will occurr. Flooding of a 
  home near culbertson court and arden road will begin (greenville 
  county). Homes on adger street (anderson county) will begin to 
  flood. +

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8250 3478 8241 3473 8242 3461 8238 3459 8249
      3464 8252             

$$

SCC045-077-041723-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FL.W.0011.151004T0437Z-151005T1703Z/
/GSLS1.1.ER.151004T0437Z.151004T1200Z.151005T0503Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory is extended for
  the Saluda River Near Greenville. 
* from late tonight to Monday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 4.2 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.5 feet.
* Impact...At 11.5 feet...Homes will be surrounded by water on 
  riverview circle south of highway 123 and parts of riverview drive 
  will begin to flood. +

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8250 3486 8253 3486 8243 3478 8241


$$

NCC087-041723-
/O.CON.KGSP.FL.W.0013.151004T0600Z-151004T1800Z/
/CTPN7.1.ER.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.151004T0600Z.NO/
123 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Advisory continues for
  the Pigeon River In Nc At Canton.
* from late tonight to Sunday afternoon.
* At 12 PM Saturday the stage was 3.9 feet.
* Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Impact...At 10.0 feet...Water surrounds some homes on and near 
  fiberville road.

&&

LAT...LON 3549 8292 3553 8286 3553 8290 3557 8290 3555 8281
      3549 8286             

$$

OUTLAW

057 
WGUS82 KGSP 040302
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1102 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the SOUTH FORK CATAWBA RIVER
in North Carolina...

   At Lowell affecting Gaston County.

Water levels will remain below flood stage. However...flow will 
likely remain high. No additional impacts are expected.

The latest stages and forecasts for rivers can be found on our web 
page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=gsp

&&

NCC071-040332-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0009.000000T0000Z-151004T0330Z/
/LOWN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1102 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The South Fork Catawba River At Lowell.
* At 10 PM Saturday the stage was 6.5 feet.
* Action stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast...the river will crest below flood stage at 8.4 feet early
  Sunday afternoon.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8126 3537 8108 3518 8102 3518 8110

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN PASSES BY WELL
OFFSHORE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
DRYING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM...FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT PROBABLY A LOT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AROUND THE
WESTERN HALF. MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A LULL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BUT SEE NO REASON TO GET PERSNICKETY WITH THE POPS AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE 100 PERCENT EVERYWHERE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT
FOR THE MOST PART EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN AL EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP
LAYER FORCING MECHANISMS WILL STEADILY SET UP OVER THE REGION. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A 100 KT JETLET
SHARPENS UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE LOWER LEVEL
950 TO 850 EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD TODAY
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL BRING
DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF
+2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAVE OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD
RUN THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZE RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAPIDLY BUILDING QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
EASTERLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THROUGH TONIGHT. A
NORTHERN HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED GIVEN THE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS. WITH SURFACE CAD IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
IMPROVING UPGLIDE...WILL FEATURE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR A FEW 60S IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS.  CONDITIONS WILL THEN WORSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS PIVOTING OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM
SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCARDED AS IT ABSORBS THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOW. SFC BASED INSTABILITY FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE COOL WEDGE WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAD LAYER BUT
UNDERCUTTING HEAVIER RATES JUST A BIT WITH LESSER INSTABILITY. SOME
CONVECTION ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE...HOWEVER...REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPPER JETLET SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANOMALIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. WILL THUS KEEP SOME 10 INCH PLUS STORM
TOTALS...BUT FOCUS THESE MORE ON THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH PLENTY OF 5 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FLASH FLOOD/LANDSLIDE LANGUAGE HARD IN THE FFA.

THE STRONG EASTERLY JET REMAINS A CONCERN FOR WIND IMPACTS AS
WELL...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE NRN TIER
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE. ANOTHER TIER OF WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL FINALLY DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
FROM THE WEST TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED H5 LOW
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND RIPPLE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL FEATURE CHC POPS ON MON...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ONE TO TWO DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE 15Z AMD EXCEPT
TO ADJUST TIMING OF -SHRA VS SHRA. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MAINLY IFR CIGS THROUGH AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPILL
WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
DEVELOPING UPGLIDE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT LIGHTER AND MORE NORTHERLY AT KAVL. BRIEF
RECOVERY TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUSTY NE FLOW...BUT
HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY PRODUCE MVFR VSBY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS. GUSTS MAY TOP 25 KT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   66%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       LOW   41%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%
KAVL       MED   68%     MED   77%     MED   73%     MED   71%
KHKY       MED   66%     LOW   43%     MED   75%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       LOW   58%     MED   75%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KAND       LOW   41%     MED   66%     HIGH  87%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL VALUES SHOULD BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...WITH VALUES BETWEEN
8 TO 11 INCHES COMMON ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND WITHIN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF
RAIN. THE REGION HAS OBSERVED A EIGHT DAY SERIES OF RAINFALL...AT
TIMES HEAVY...RESULTING IN STREAMFLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLOODS OCCUR WHEN A
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OCCURS DURING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WITH
STREAMFLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 1.5
TO 2.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR TO 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THESE RATES
WILL BE REACHED AND EXCEEDED...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ALONG
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE HAVE OBSERVED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE CONTINUED WET
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SLOPE FAILURES AND DEBRIS FLOWS
WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ONCE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING BOTH FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES AND ROCKSLIDES.

THE MAJORITY RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE IS BEYOND 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW IS SHORTER FOR
THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD RIVER...FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT
TWO PERIODS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/TDP
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-048-051-052-056>059-062>064-
068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-030900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
450 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-030900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
450 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. HIGH WINDS
POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WATCHES FOR DETAILS.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. HIGH WINDS
POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WATCHES FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
OR HIGH WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

NED