River Flood Warning 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1053 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN PASSES BY WELL
OFFSHORE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
DRYING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1030 AM...FIRST ROUND OF RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA BUT PROBABLY A LOT OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
REGION. STILL QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AROUND THE
WESTERN HALF. MIGHT SEE A BIT OF A LULL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BUT SEE NO REASON TO GET PERSNICKETY WITH THE POPS AND GENERALLY
KEPT THE 100 PERCENT EVERYWHERE. ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE TRENDS BUT
FOR THE MOST PART EVERYTHING IS ON TRACK.

AS OF 645 AM EDT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW
CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN AL EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP
LAYER FORCING MECHANISMS WILL STEADILY SET UP OVER THE REGION. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A 100 KT JETLET
SHARPENS UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE LOWER LEVEL
950 TO 850 EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD TODAY
AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL BRING
DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF
+2 TO +3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAVE OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD
RUN THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZE RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAPIDLY BUILDING QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
EASTERLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THROUGH TONIGHT. A
NORTHERN HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED GIVEN THE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS. WITH SURFACE CAD IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
IMPROVING UPGLIDE...WILL FEATURE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR A FEW 60S IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS.  CONDITIONS WILL THEN WORSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AND NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS PIVOTING OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM
SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCARDED AS IT ABSORBS THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOW. SFC BASED INSTABILITY FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE COOL WEDGE WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAD LAYER BUT
UNDERCUTTING HEAVIER RATES JUST A BIT WITH LESSER INSTABILITY. SOME
CONVECTION ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE...HOWEVER...REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPPER JETLET SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANOMALIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. WILL THUS KEEP SOME 10 INCH PLUS STORM
TOTALS...BUT FOCUS THESE MORE ON THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH PLENTY OF 5 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FLASH FLOOD/LANDSLIDE LANGUAGE HARD IN THE FFA.

THE STRONG EASTERLY JET REMAINS A CONCERN FOR WIND IMPACTS AS
WELL...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE NRN TIER
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE. ANOTHER TIER OF WIND ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THE H5 LOW
CENTER WILL FINALLY DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
FROM THE WEST TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED H5 LOW
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND RIPPLE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL FEATURE CHC POPS ON MON...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ONE TO TWO DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE 15Z AMD EXCEPT
TO ADJUST TIMING OF -SHRA VS SHRA. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD
MAINLY IFR CIGS THROUGH AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPILL
WESTWARD FROM THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
DEVELOPING UPGLIDE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT LIGHTER AND MORE NORTHERLY AT KAVL. BRIEF
RECOVERY TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUSTY NE FLOW...BUT
HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY PRODUCE MVFR VSBY ALONG WITH A
RETURN TO IFR CIGS. GUSTS MAY TOP 25 KT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       MED   66%     MED   72%     HIGH  83%     HIGH  92%
KGSP       LOW   41%     HIGH 100%     MED   75%     HIGH  84%
KAVL       MED   68%     MED   77%     MED   73%     MED   71%
KHKY       MED   66%     LOW   43%     MED   75%     HIGH  92%
KGMU       LOW   58%     MED   75%     MED   69%     HIGH  80%
KAND       LOW   41%     MED   66%     HIGH  87%     MED   79%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NE GA LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL VALUES SHOULD BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME...WITH VALUES BETWEEN
8 TO 11 INCHES COMMON ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS AND WITHIN THE UPPER
SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF
RAIN. THE REGION HAS OBSERVED A EIGHT DAY SERIES OF RAINFALL...AT
TIMES HEAVY...RESULTING IN STREAMFLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...LIFE THREATENING AND DAMAGING FLOODS OCCUR WHEN A
HEAVY RAIN EVENTS OCCURS DURING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND WITH
STREAMFLOWS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 1.5
TO 2.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR TO 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. THESE RATES
WILL BE REACHED AND EXCEEDED...RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING ALONG
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. IN ADDITION...EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
BLUE RIDGE HAVE OBSERVED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE CONTINUED WET
PERIOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SLOPE FAILURES AND DEBRIS FLOWS
WILL INCREASE SHARPLY ONCE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING BOTH FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES AND ROCKSLIDES.

THE MAJORITY RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF REACHING
FLOOD STAGE IS BEYOND 24 HRS. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW IS SHORTER FOR
THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD RIVER...FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED OVER THE NEXT
TWO PERIODS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-
     026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG/TDP
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG/TDP
HYDROLOGY...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
450 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-048-051-052-056>059-062>064-
068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-030900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-
SWAIN-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
450 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-030900-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
450 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   HIGH WIND WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. HIGH WINDS
POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WATCHES FOR DETAILS.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. HIGH WINDS
POSSIBLE. SEE THE LATEST WATCHES FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
OR HIGH WINDS TO OUR OFFICE.

NED