Alert archive / North Carolina / High Wind Watches in 2015

High Wind Watch 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

October 2, 201511 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this high wind watch at Oct 2, 2015, 4:01 AM EDT for 11 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 2, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 2, 2015, 4:01 AM EDT (08:01 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 2, 2015, 8:00 PM EDT
Expired
Oct 2, 2015, 3:24 PM EDT
In force
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Alexander County, NC, Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Henderson County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-10-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2015-10-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 113 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
620 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
194 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

592 
WWUS72 KGSP 020801
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...STRONG WINDS AND WET SOILS MAY CAUSE NUMEROUS TREES TO FALL
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

.AN AREA OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
GENERATE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS INTO THE BLUE RIDGE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...AND STRONG WINDS WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS TREES TO FALL ACROSS THE
AREA...PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES...AND CAUSE A HAZARD TO LIFE AND
PROPERTY.

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-021700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.A.0002.151003T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...
STONY POINT...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...EDGEMONT...
LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORDTON...FOREST CITY...SALUDA...COLUMBUS
401 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
  NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA
  FOOTHILLS. 

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATED SOILS TO
  CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES.

* TIMING...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
  TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
  NIGHT...BEFORE VERY SLOWLY ABATING BY LATE SUNDAY. 

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF
  40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT...ONGOING...AND UPCOMING
  HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PROMOTE THE DOWNING OF NUMEROUS TREES AS THE
  WINDS INCREASE. FALLING TREES MAY PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES...AND POSE
  A HAZARD TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS MAY NOT REACH THE TYPICAL HIGH
WIND THRESHOLDS OF 40 MPH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OR 58 MPH OR GREATER
WIND GUSTS...THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS AN
ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SETUP FOR FALLING TREES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR WIND ADVISORIES
ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS
3 follow-up statements
504 
WWUS72 KGSP 021638
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1238 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

DEFAULT OVERVIEW SECTION
NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-030045-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0002.151003T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...
STONY POINT...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...EDGEMONT...
LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORDTON...FOREST CITY...SALUDA...COLUMBUS
1238 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
  NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA 
  FOOTHILLS.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATED SOILS 
  TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES.

* TIMING...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA 
  TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY 
  NIGHT... BEFORE VERY SLOWLY ABATING BY LATE SUNDAY.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 
  OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT...ONGOING...AND UPCOMING
  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY WEAKEN ROOT SYSTEMS AND ALLOW STRONG WIND
  GUSTS TO KNOCK DOWN NUMEROUS TREES. THE FALLING TREES MAY RESULT
  IN POWER OUTAGES...AND WOULD POSE A HAZARD TO LIFE AND
  PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS MAY NOT REACH THE TYPICAL
HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS OF 40 MPH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OR 58 MPH OR
GREATER WIND GUSTS...THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS
AN ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SETUP FOR FALLING TREES. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

$$
903 
WWUS72 KGSP 021638 CCA
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1238 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-030045-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.A.0002.151003T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...
STONY POINT...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...EDGEMONT...
LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORDTON...FOREST CITY...SALUDA...COLUMBUS
1238 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
  NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA 
  FOOTHILLS.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATED SOILS 
  TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES.

* TIMING...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA 
  TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY 
  NIGHT... BEFORE VERY SLOWLY ABATING BY LATE SUNDAY.

* WINDS...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 
  OF 40 TO 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

* IMPACTS...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT...ONGOING...AND UPCOMING
  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY WEAKEN ROOT SYSTEMS AND ALLOW STRONG WIND
  GUSTS TO KNOCK DOWN NUMEROUS TREES. THE FALLING TREES MAY RESULT
  IN POWER OUTAGES...AND WOULD POSE A HAZARD TO LIFE AND
  PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. ALTHOUGH THE WINDS MAY NOT REACH THE TYPICAL
HIGH WIND THRESHOLDS OF 40 MPH FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OR 58 MPH OR
GREATER WIND GUSTS...THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE THIS
AN ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS SETUP FOR FALLING TREES. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR ANY HIGH WIND WARNINGS OR WIND
ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.

&&

$$

PM
923 
WWUS72 KGSP 021924
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510-030300-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0002.151003T0000Z-151005T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.151003T0000Z-151004T1200Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...ELK PARK...
CROSSNORE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...BETHLEHEM...TAYLORSVILLE...
STONY POINT...BURNSVILLE...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...EAST FLAT ROCK...ETOWAH...EDGEMONT...
LENOIR...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...OLD FORT...MARION...
LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORDTON...FOREST CITY...SALUDA...COLUMBUS
324 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE BLUE RIDGE AREA OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN 
  NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTH CAROLINA 
  FOOTHILLS.

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATED SOILS 
  TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES.

* TIMING...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA 
  TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY 
  NIGHT... BEFORE VERY SLOWLY ABATING BY LATE SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT...ONGOING...AND UPCOMING 
  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY WEAKEN ROOT SYSTEMS AND ALLOW STRONG WIND 
  GUSTS TO KNOCK DOWN NUMEROUS TREES. THE FALLING TREES MAY 
  RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES...AND WOULD POSE A HAZARD TO LIFE AND 
  PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-048-051-052-056>059-062>064-
068>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-030300-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0012.151003T0000Z-151004T1200Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
ROYSTON...LAVONIA...FRANKLIN SPRINGS...CANON...HARTWELL...
REED CREEK...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...
MARS HILL...MARSHALL...HOT SPRINGS...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...
CANTON...LAKE JUNALUSKA...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...
SALISBURY...ROBBINSVILLE...CULLOWHEE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...
HIGHLANDS...CASHIERS...BREVARD...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...
MONROE...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...TRINITY...WALHALLA...
WESTMINSTER...NINE TIMES...PUMPKINTOWN...ROCKY BOTTOM...
CAESARS HEAD...CLEVELAND...GOWENSVILLE...MARIETTA...TIGERVILLE...
SENECA...EASLEY...CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...
MAULDIN...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...
CLINTON...UNION...CHESTER...GREAT FALLS...GREENWOOD
324 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
  WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  

* HAZARDS...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH SATURATED SOILS 
  TO CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES.

* TIMING...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA 
  TONIGHT...AND THEN STRENGTHEN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY 
  NIGHT... BEFORE VERY SLOWLY ABATING BY LATE SUNDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* IMPACTS...SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT...ONGOING...AND UPCOMING 
  HEAVY RAINFALL MAY WEAKEN ROOT SYSTEMS AND ALLOW STRONG WIND 
  GUSTS TO KNOCK DOWN NUMEROUS TREES. THE FALLING TREES MAY 
  RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES...AND WOULD POSE A HAZARD TO LIFE AND 
  PROPERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

CDG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind watch went out at Oct 2, 3:45 AM EDT, 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 2, 3:45 AM EDT, 16 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015

...HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RAINFALL EVENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS HURRICANE JOAQUIN PASSES BY WELL
OFFSHORE. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL YIELD
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING
WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS WEEK AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOW
DRYING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT...THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL
AL EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FL PANDHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM MIGRATES FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP LAYER
FORCING MECHANISMS WILL STEADILY SET UP OVER THE REGION. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL IMPROVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS A 100 KT JETLET
SHARPENS UP ALONG AND WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE LOWER LEVEL
950 TO 850 EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD TODAY
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT...ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL BRING
DEEP LAYER TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
FIRST WAVE OF SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAKE A WESTWARD
RUN THROUGH THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON AND MAXIMIZE RAINFALL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAPIDLY BUILDING QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE
EASTERLY FLOW GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTHERN
TIER WIND ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR IMPACT GIVEN THE WET SOIL
CONDITIONS. WITH SURFACE CAD IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
IMPROVING UPGLIDE...WILL FOLLOW A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE OF TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR A FEW 60S IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT FRIDAY...THE PREFERRED GFS/ECM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS PIVOTING OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER AREA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM
SOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCARDED AS IT ABSORBS THE HURRICANE JOAQUIN
CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHEAST LOW. SFC BASED INSTABILITY FIELDS
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE COOL WEDGE WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE
REGION...HELPING TO ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE CAD LAYER BUT
UNDERCUTTING HEAVIER RATES JUST A BIT WITH LESSER INSTABILITY. SOME
CONVECTION ALOFT OVER THE WEDGE...HOWEVER...REMAINS POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPPER JETLET SUPPORT. IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER
ANOMALIES WILL RUN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH. WILL THUS KEEP SOME 10 INCH PLUS STORM
TOTALS...BUT FOCUS THESE MORE ON THE SRN TIER OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH PLENTY OF 5 TO 10 INCH AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. WILL CONTINUE
TO HIT THE FLOOD/LANDSLIDE LANGUAGE HARD IN THE FFA.

THE STRONG EASTERLY JET REMAINS A CONCERN FOR WIND IMPACTS AS
WELL...AND A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE POSTED FOR THE NRN TIER THROUGH
SAT NIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE. ANOTHER TIER OF WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THE H5 LOW CENTER
WILL FINALLY DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE SE COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT TO ALLOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM THE
WEST TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED H5 LOW
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH AND RIPPLE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WILL FEATURE CHC POPS ON MON...FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE ONE TO TWO DEGREES BELOW
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME IFR QUICKLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
DEVELOPING UPGLIDE AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS TROPICAL MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE COAST. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT LIGHTER AND MORE NORTHERLY AT
KAVL. BRIEF RECOVERY TO MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUSTY NE
FLOW...BUT HEAVIER SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY PRODUCE MVFR VSBY ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO IFR CIGS.

OUTLOOK...A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL AND
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC. SLOW DRYING IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       MED   63%     MED   75%     MED   74%     HIGH  91%
KGSP       LOW   57%     MED   68%     HIGH 100%     MED   76%
KAVL       HIGH  83%     MED   68%     HIGH  97%     HIGH  80%
KHKY       MED   65%     MED   63%     MED   67%     MED   76%
KGMU       LOW   57%     MED   68%     HIGH  96%     MED   76%
KAND       MED   63%     MED   63%     MED   69%     HIGH  86%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
     068>072-082-501>510.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>510.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR SCZ001>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 1, 4:08 PM EDT, 11 hours 53 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
408 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-022015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
408 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..SATURDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE
LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..SUNDAY...HEAVY RAIN WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY. SEE THE LATEST
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR DETAILS.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 11:34 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPHenderson, Transylvania4 days
Oct 1, 11:34 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPBuncombe, Henderson3 days
Oct 2, 11:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPMadison57 hr
Oct 2, 11:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPCleveland71 hr
Oct 2, 11:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPBuncombe45 hr
Oct 2, 11:00 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningGSPGaston66 hr
Oct 2, 3:24 PM EDTWind AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 22 more3 days

Nearby

High Wind Watches in North Carolina, 2015Every high wind watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.