Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN PROBLEMATIC...DUE TO
THE POP UP NATURE OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION. OVERALL IT APPEARS A
CLUSTER OUT TO THE WEST IS HEADED FOR RHI...AND MAY AFFECT
AUW/CWA. BEYOND THAT WAITING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS STILL INDICATE A BIT OF A BREAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS TREND WITH THIS SET
OF TAFS. A FEW OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......KURIMSKI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-030815-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-030815-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY AND OCONTO...WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF STURGEON BAY AND
OCONTO. DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

KURIMSKI/MPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
622 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIZ005-011-012-021200-
FLORENCE WI-FOREST WI-VILAS WI-
622 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VILAS...CENTRAL
FLORENCE AND NORTHWESTERN FOREST COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CDT...

AT 621 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES EAST OF PHELPS...OR 13 MILES WEST OF IRON RIVER...MOVING EAST
AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TIPLER AROUND 645 AM CDT.
  FLORENCE AROUND 700 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE NELMA...SPREAD
EAGLE...ALVIN...COMMONWEALTH...STEVENS LAKE CAMPGROUND...LASALLE
FALLS AND LOST LAKE CAMPGROUND.

LAT...LON 4602 8882 4603 8878 4602 8878 4601 8868
      4599 8867 4599 8862 4602 8860 4601 8859
      4602 8853 4599 8850 4598 8842 4599 8838
      4596 8833 4596 8825 4595 8824 4595 8819
      4592 8810 4575 8818 4599 8905 4610 8900
TIME...MOT...LOC 1121Z 287DEG 39KT 4605 8891

KURIMSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIZ010-018-021230-
LINCOLN WI-ONEIDA WI-
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 637 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PHILLIPS TO NEAR
HAWKINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLOW RESERVOIR AROUND 705 AM CDT.
  TRIPOLI AROUND 720 AM CDT.
  WOODBORO AROUND 725 AM CDT.
  RHINELANDER AND TOMAHAWK AROUND 730 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE SPIRIT FALLS...
HARSHAW...MC NAUGHTON...MCCORD...HEAFFORD JUNCTION...BRADLEY AND
GOODNOW.

LAT...LON 4573 9004 4575 8922 4538 8995 4539 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1137Z 270DEG 39KT 4568 9028 4548 9068

KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
706 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HAIL             2 W FLORENCE            45.93N 88.29W
08/02/2015  M0.50 INCH       FLORENCE           WI   PUBLIC

&&

SAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
712 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIZ005-010-021300-
ONEIDA WI-VILAS WI-
712 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ONEIDA AND
SOUTHWESTERN VILAS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM CDT...

AT 712 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF PARK
FALLS TO 6 MILES EAST OF FIFIELD...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LAC DU FLAMBEAU AROUND 740 AM CDT.
  SQUIRREL LAKE AROUND 745 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE MC NAUGHTON...
HAZELHURST...LAKE TOMAHAWK...SAYNER...TROUT LAKE...GOODNOW...ARBOR
VITAE...WOODRUFF...MINOCQUA AND HARSHAW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4609 8949 4564 8955 4574 9004 4598 9005
      4598 8993 4610 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1212Z 278DEG 32KT 4604 9027 4587 9029

KURIMSKI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
728 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     HAIL             5 SE FLORENCE           45.88N 88.18W
08/02/2015  M1.00 INCH       FLORENCE           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SAC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
739 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIZ005-010-011-013-021330-
FOREST WI-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY WI-ONEIDA WI-VILAS WI-
739 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 738 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAC DU FLAMBEAU TO 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF CRANDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RHINELANDER...CRANDON...EAGLE RIVER...LAC DU FLAMBEAU...WOODBORO...
WILLOW RESERVOIR...SQUIRREL LAKE...MINOCQUA...ARBOR VITAE...THREE
LAKES...WOODRUFF...SUGAR CAMP...HAZELHURST...LAONA...NASHVILLE...LAKE
TOMAHAWK...ARGONNE...SILVER CLIFF...BLACKWELL AND ENTERPRISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4588 8909 4538 8805 4550 8934 4551 8943
      4556 8943 4556 8973 4559 8998 4598 8998
      4598 8993 4605 8993
TIME...MOT...LOC 1238Z 287DEG 41KT 4601 8982 4567 8911

KURIMSKI