Alert archive / Wisconsin / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Green Bay, WI

August 2, 20157 counties in Wisconsin

NWS Green Bay, WI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 2, 2015, 3:28 PM CDT for 7 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 62 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 2, 2015, 3:28 PM CDT (20:28 UTC)
Expired: Aug 2, 2015, 4:30 PM CDT
In force: 62 min
Issued by: NWS Green Bay, WI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 70.0 mph

Counties Brown County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 55 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 2, 3:49 PM CDT	HAIL 1	Bancroft, WI	ESTIMATED 40MPH WINDS
Aug 2, 3:56 PM CDT	HAIL 0.5	Seymour, WI	PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
Aug 2, 4:01 PM CDT	HAIL 1	King, WI	ESTIMATED 50MPH WIND GUSTS.
Aug 2, 4:07 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	Wild Rose, WI	COUPLE OF MEDIUM SIZE TREES DOWN

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 21 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 2, 2:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 55 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1667 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -90 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1134 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 166 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 291 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 1.2
Supercell composite: 10.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

006 
WUUS53 KGRB 022028
SVRGRB
WIC009-087-097-115-135-137-139-022130-
/O.NEW.KGRB.SV.W.0043.150802T2028Z-150802T2130Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
  WAUPACA COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...
  NORTHERN WAUSHARA COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...
  BROWN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...
  SOUTHEASTERN SHAWANO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...
  OUTAGAMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN...
  SOUTHEASTERN PORTAGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 327 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF CLINTONVILLE TO NEAR AMHERST TO
  NEAR NEW ROME...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
           HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHAIN O' LAKES-KING AROUND 335 PM CDT.
  WAUPACA AND CLINTONVILLE AROUND 340 PM CDT.
  PLAINFIELD AROUND 345 PM CDT.
  NEW LONDON AROUND 355 PM CDT.
  BLACK CREEK AROUND 400 PM CDT.
  APPLETON AND MENASHA AROUND 415 PM CDT.
  GREEN BAY...KAUKAUNA...LITTLE CHUTE...KIMBERLY...DARBOY AND LAKE
  POYGAN AROUND 420 PM CDT.
  BELLEVUE TOWN AROUND 425 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
HOLLAND...GREENVILLE...METZ...NORTHPORT...MANAWA...BOOM BAY...CHICAGO
CORNERS...RIVERMOOR...DE PERE AND HORTONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4425 8960 4425 8972 4430 8973
      4447 8932 4469 8898 4458 8803 4454 8797
      4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796 4424 8840
      4410 8841 4405 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 281DEG 48KT 4461 8902 4446 8923 4421 8981 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

RDM

4 follow-up statements

267 
WWUS53 KGRB 022047
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
347 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIC009-087-097-115-135-137-139-022130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150802T2130Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-WAUPACA WI-WAUSHARA WI-BROWN WI-SHAWANO WI-OUTAGAMIE WI-
PORTAGE WI-
347 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...WAUPACA...NORTHERN WAUSHARA...BROWN...
SOUTHEASTERN SHAWANO...OUTAGAMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTAGE COUNTIES...

AT 347 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF PULASKI TO 5 MILES NORTH OF BLACK 
CREEK TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTONVILLE TO NEAR HARTMAN CREEK 
STATE PARK TO NEAR PLAINFIELD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO 
         MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  BLACK CREEK AROUND 350 PM CDT.
  WAUPACA AROUND 400 PM CDT.
  GREEN BAY AND NEW LONDON AROUND 405 PM CDT.
  BELLEVUE TOWN AROUND 415 PM CDT.
  FREMONT AND LAKE POYGAN AROUND 420 PM CDT.
  APPLETON AROUND 430 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
HOLLAND...GREENVILLE...METZ...NORTHPORT...MANAWA...BOOM BAY...CHICAGO
CORNERS...RIVERMOOR...DE PERE AND HORTONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4425 8960 4425 8972 4430 8973
      4447 8932 4469 8898 4458 8803 4454 8797
      4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796 4424 8840
      4410 8841 4405 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 292DEG 28KT 4455 8827 4456 8844 4450 8890 4429
8920 4423 8954

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

RDM

378 
WWUS53 KGRB 022057
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIC115-022106-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150802T2130Z/
SHAWANO WI-
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWANO COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4428 8949 4434 8939 4438 8930
      4446 8915 4458 8886 4458 8803 4454 8797
      4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796 4424 8840
      4410 8841 4405 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 281DEG 48KT 4453 8813 4454 8830 4448 8876 4427
8906 4421 8940

$$

WIC009-087-097-135-137-139-022130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150802T2130Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-WAUPACA WI-WAUSHARA WI-BROWN WI-OUTAGAMIE WI-PORTAGE WI-
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...WAUPACA...NORTHERN WAUSHARA...BROWN...
OUTAGAMIE AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTAGE COUNTIES...

AT 356 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE 
EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF GREEN BAY TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
BLACK CREEK TO 7 MILES NORTH OF NEW LONDON TO NEAR WAUPACA TO NEAR 
PLAINFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GREEN BAY AROUND 400 PM CDT.
  BLACK CREEK AND BELLEVUE TOWN AROUND 415 PM CDT.
  KAUKAUNA AND LAKE POYGAN AROUND 425 PM CDT.
  APPLETON...MENASHA AND DARBOY AROUND 430 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
HOLLAND...GREENVILLE...METZ...NORTHPORT...MANAWA...BOOM BAY...CHICAGO
CORNERS...RIVERMOOR...DE PERE AND HORTONVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4428 8949 4434 8939 4438 8930
      4446 8915 4458 8886 4458 8803 4454 8797
      4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796 4424 8840
      4410 8841 4405 8855
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 281DEG 48KT 4453 8813 4454 8830 4448 8876 4427
8906 4421 8940

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RDM

002 
WWUS53 KGRB 022120
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
420 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIC097-022130-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150802T2130Z/
PORTAGE WI-
420 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTAGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4424 8932 4424 8923 4429 8922
      4437 8900 4439 8879 4458 8804 4458 8803
      4457 8804 4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796
      4424 8840 4410 8841 4405 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 281DEG 48KT 4447 8770 4448 8787 4442 8833 4421
8863 4415 8897

$$

WIC009-087-135-137-139-022130-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150802T2130Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-WAUPACA WI-WAUSHARA WI-BROWN WI-OUTAGAMIE WI-
420 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...SOUTHERN WAUPACA...NORTHERN WAUSHARA...BROWN
AND OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES...

AT 420 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LUXEMBURG TO NEAR BELLEVUE TOWN TO NEAR BLACK 
CREEK TO 10 MILES WEST OF MENASHA TO NEAR LAKE POYGAN...MOVING EAST 
AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  APPLETON AND DARBOY AROUND 430 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
HOLLAND...GREENVILLE...METZ...BOOM BAY...CHICAGO CORNERS...
RIVERMOOR...DE PERE...HORTONVILLE...ONEIDA AND WRIGHTSTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4424 8932 4424 8923 4429 8922
      4437 8900 4439 8879 4458 8804 4458 8803
      4457 8804 4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796
      4424 8840 4410 8841 4405 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 281DEG 48KT 4447 8770 4448 8787 4442 8833 4421
8863 4415 8897

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RDM

680 
WWUS53 KGRB 022130 RRA
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIC009-087-135-137-139-022140-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-150802T2130Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-WAUPACA WI-WAUSHARA WI-BROWN WI-OUTAGAMIE WI-
430 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN WINNEBAGO...SOUTHERN
WAUPACA...NORTHERN WAUSHARA...BROWN AND OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES HAS
EXPIRED...
    
THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENEND OR MOVED OUT OF 
THE AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4416 8960 4424 8932 4424 8923 4429 8922
      4437 8900 4439 8879 4458 8804 4458 8803
      4457 8804 4457 8790 4455 8777 4425 8796
      4424 8840 4410 8841 4405 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 281DEG 48KT 4447 8770 4448 8787 4442 8833 4421
8863 4415 8897

$$

RDM

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 2, 12:43 PM CDT, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 12:43 PM CDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED ALONG AN AREA OF 1 TO 3 KM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
NORTHERN CWA LATER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
THEN TRACK THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING...COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE ROUNDS IS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC...HOWEVER THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS
DO OFFER SOME GUIDANCE IN THIS REGARD AS THEY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT ACTIVITY TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE. THEREFORE WILL
MODEL THE POPS AFTER THESE RUNS AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY AS THE DAY
GOES ON.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE STANDS A CHANCE AT BEING SEVERE AS
MUCAPES SOAR TO 2000 TO 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS...SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE A THREAT. CLOSER INSPECTION OF LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS SHOW SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR...WHICH MEANS TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS. THESE FACTORS HAVE LED
TO AN UPGRADE OF THE SOUTHERN CWA TO THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER PER THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN
THE FACTORS IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR
ACROSS THAT PORTION OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MODE
APPEARS TO BE AN MCS...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE FORMING INTO A LARGE MCS.

DESPITE THE ABUNDANT CHANCES FOR RAIN...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
COULD GET TO 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. ANY BREAK IN THIS
ACTIVITY AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOAR. FURTHER NORTH
THERE APPEARS LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE
ACTION. THIS WHEN COMBINED WITH LOWER 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HIGHS TODAY
COULD GO EITHER WAY GIVEN THE MANY COMPLICATING FACTORS IN
PLAY...WITH BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPS AND
MORE CLOUD COVER AND ACTIVITY LEADING TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
ON MONDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER...WITH POPS IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTING OF RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND AN
UPPER LOW FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE
EAST DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.  THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE THROUGH 00Z FRI BEFORE
DIVERGING.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS...AND WILL GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO ITS SOLUTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEPER
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED DURING THIS
PERIOD.  THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODS OF CLOUDS
OVERHEAD...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  PROGGED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK CAPPED DURING THIS
STRETCH...BUT BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS PRODUCE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
THIS AREA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS
OCCUR MONDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHTS.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OFF INTO QUEBEC
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A REBOUND OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS.  BUT MODELS
ADVERTISE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING LOW PRESSURE INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE A
BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  WITH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION...THINK PRECIP CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.   HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE DRY
CONDITIONS.  PERHAPS THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COULD OCCUR BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OTHERWISE. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH 15Z MONDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......RDM

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 2, 3:04 AM CDT, 12 hours 24 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-030815-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-LINCOLN-
LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-
WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN OCONTO COUNTY-
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-030815-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
304 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF STURGEON BAY AND OCONTO...WITH
A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF STURGEON BAY AND
OCONTO. DAMAGING WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

KURIMSKI/MPC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 2, 2:53 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
253 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             SHAWANO                 44.78N 88.59W
08/02/2015  E0.50 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

MG

Local storm report, Aug 2, 2:58 PM CDT, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ABRAMS                  44.78N 88.06W
08/02/2015  E1.75 INCH       OCONTO             WI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED GOLF BALF SIZE HAIL BASED ON PHOTO RELAYED BY
            NBC26. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.

&&

AA

Local storm report, Aug 2, 3:06 PM CDT, 22 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
306 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             2 SE SHAWANO            44.76N 88.56W
08/02/2015  E0.88 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&

MG

Local storm report, Aug 2, 3:11 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             SHAWANO                 44.78N 88.59W
08/02/2015  M1.75 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT SHAWANO HIGH SCHOOL.

&&

AA

Local storm report, Aug 2, 3:14 PM CDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
314 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W STEVENS POINT       44.51N 89.66W
08/02/2015  M71 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            RELAYED VIA INTERNET REPORTING SYSTEM. MEASURED WITH
            HANDHELD ANEMOMETER

&&

LUCHS

Local storm report, Aug 2, 3:18 PM CDT, 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
318 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 5 W STEVENS POINT       44.51N 89.66W
08/02/2015  M71 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            CORRECTION TO EARLIER LSR FOR PROPER TIME. HAM OPERATOR
            MEASURED WITH HANDHELD ANEMOMETER

&&

LUCHS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Green Bay, WI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 2, 12:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Lincoln	44 min
Aug 2, 12:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Lincoln	39 min
Aug 2, 12:40 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Marathon	50 min
Aug 2, 1:28 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon	47 min
Aug 2, 1:59 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Langlade	46 min
Aug 2, 2:17 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Menominee, Shawano	43 min
Aug 2, 3:02 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Menominee	43 min
Aug 2, 6:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Florence	38 min
Aug 2, 6:38 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Oneida	52 min
Aug 2, 6:46 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Florence	29 min
Aug 2, 7:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Vilas	48 min
Aug 2, 7:39 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Forest, Oneida	51 min
Aug 2, 8:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Marinette	38 min
Aug 2, 9:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Shawano	24 min
Aug 2, 9:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Oneida, Vilas	46 min
Aug 2, 9:35 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Brown, Kewaunee, Shawano	40 min
Aug 2, 9:48 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Oneida, Vilas	27 min
Aug 2, 10:18 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Oneida	27 min
Aug 2, 10:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Forest	48 min
Aug 2, 10:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Florence, Forest	48 min
Aug 2, 11:10 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Oconto	50 min
Aug 2, 11:23 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		22 min
Aug 2, 11:29 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Door	46 min
Aug 2, 11:36 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Langlade	39 min
Aug 2, 11:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Lincoln, Oneida	47 min
Aug 2, 12:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Florence, Forest, Oneida	28 min
Aug 2, 12:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Door	39 min
Aug 2, 12:38 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Florence, Forest	37 min
Aug 2, 1:05 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Langlade	40 min
Aug 2, 1:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marinette, Oconto	32 min
Aug 2, 1:38 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		67 min
Aug 2, 1:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Door	36 min
Aug 2, 1:58 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Lincoln	47 min
Aug 2, 2:11 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		34 min
Aug 2, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Door, Oconto	44 min
Aug 2, 2:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Portage	33 min
Aug 2, 2:32 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		28 min
Aug 2, 2:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Wood	27 min
Aug 2, 2:43 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		32 min
Aug 2, 3:00 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		45 min
Aug 2, 3:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Oconto, Shawano	58 min
Aug 2, 3:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Portage, Waupaca, Wood	27 min
Aug 2, 3:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Kewaunee	25 min
Aug 2, 3:35 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		40 min
Aug 2, 3:38 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		37 min
Aug 2, 3:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Door, Kewaunee, Oconto	46 min
Aug 2, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Waupaca, Waushara, Winnebago	59 min
Aug 2, 4:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Marathon, Portage, Shawano, Waupaca	32 min
Aug 2, 4:14 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		46 min
Aug 2, 4:15 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		30 min
Aug 2, 4:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Brown, Kewaunee, Manitowoc	42 min
Aug 2, 4:39 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	GRB	Winnebago	51 min
Aug 2, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Outagamie, Portage, Shawano, Waupaca	25 min
Aug 2, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Calumet, Winnebago	14 min
Aug 2, 4:52 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		38 min
Aug 2, 5:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRB	Manitowoc	26 min
Aug 2, 5:22 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	GRB		23 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Wisconsin, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.