Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
556 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONES FOR THE INCLUSION OF RED WILLOW COUNTY
NEBRASKA INTO TORNADO WATCH 69.  OTHERWISE, NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE ONTO
THE PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VORTICITY
LOBES ROTATING AROUND IT WILL PROVIDE OCCASIONAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE DUE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RECENT
RAINFALL. INSTABILITY IS THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK AS FAR AS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONCERNED...SINCE MORNING CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN SLOW TO ERODE AND INSOLATION HAS BEEN LIMITED.
NONETHELESS...18Z SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATES UP TO 1500 J/KG
OF SBCAPE IN EASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH ANY
AFTERNOON HEATING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KTS
POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS IF BETTER INSTABILITY CAN MATERIALIZE. THE OTHER
CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST WHERE TWO DAY
TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES AND LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES HAS RESULTED IN
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOWER FFG VALUES. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BUT OVERALL QPF FROM THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SHORT
TERM MODELS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.50 INCHES WITH SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN BULLSEYES. AS A RESULT...DO NOT FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH
AREAL THREAT TO JUSTIFY A FFW AT THIS TIME.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...EXPECTING A ROBUST BAND OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IT WILL BE IMPACTING MAINLY SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
EXITING TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. PROXIMITY
TO THE UPPER LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN...PRIMARILY IN EASTERN
COLORADO THEN SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE SET UP WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH EXCELLENT SHEAR BUT QUESTIONABLE INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT WITH A CUT OFF LOW
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW.
FORECAST GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY REMAINS MUDDLED BUT STRONGER
AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS BEEN NOTED. UNFORTUNATELY....
FRONTAL POSITION AND THUS TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN.

BEGINNING WITH SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. STRONGEST FORCING SLIDES NORTHEAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT...DRAGGING THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. A
FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WANES
SO CURRENTLY NOT THINKING HEAVY RAINS OR FLASH FLOODING IS A
LARGER THREAT. THEN...AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...A COLD
FRONT SURGES SOUTH AS A FINAL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ANTICIPATE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND AREAS OF
SHOWERS...PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS...BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING UNTIL AROUND NOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOP AS THIS HAPPENS. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT AND TIMING
OF PLACEMENT AND A NOTICEABLE TREND WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH HAS BEEN OBSERVED. THEREFORE...DO NOT FORESEE
ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS WITH THIS POTENTIAL ACTIVITY.

A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ADVERTISED BY THE
CANADIAN...EUROPEAN AND GFS MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE TRI-STATE
REGION IS ENVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR SO WE SHOULD OBSERVE A
WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.

ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THIS PAST SYSTEM...YET ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIE MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE AT A SLUGGISH PACE SO YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS /POSSIBLY SEVERE AND WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAINS IS POSSIBLE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE POPS. WITH THE LOW
HOLDING BACK TO THE WEST FOR SO LONG...FEEL WE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THE GFS AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH BUT THIS IS
LIKELY OVERDONE. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING POTENTIAL RAIN/SNOW FOR
NOW IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO TEMPERATURE CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AT KGLD AND KMCK AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT THE THE
UPPER LOW. SOME LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. LATER TONIGHT
AS STORMS WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, STRATUS AND FOG WILL
REDEVELOP WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT BOTH SITES. VFR
CONDITONS BY MID MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1032 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1032 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE REGION IS UNDER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
601 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TORNADO          5 ESE CLARKVILLE        40.34N 102.53W
04/17/2015                   YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM PRODUCED A ROPE TORNADO ON THE GROUND FOR SEVERAL
            MINUTES.

&&

TML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
614 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     HAIL             11 N LEOTI              38.64N 101.36W
04/17/2015  E1.00 INCH       WICHITA            KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF QUARTER-SIZED HAIL 11 MILES NORTH OF LEOTI.
            HAIL FELL FOR SEVERAL MINUTES.

&&

TML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
616 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

COZ090-091-180100-
YUMA COUNTY CO-KIT CARSON COUNTY CO-
616 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA AND
NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 616 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES NORTH OF BURLINGTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
IDALIA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 385 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 191 AND 217.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3969 10257 3972 10223 3935 10210 3934 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 143DEG 19KT 3945 10223

DR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
622 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     HAIL             8 NNE BURLINGTON        39.41N 102.21W
04/17/2015  M0.88 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   COCORAHS

            AVERAGE HAIL SIZE 0.375. MINOR LEAF DAMAGE

&&

FSTASSER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
630 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

KSZ013-027-180100-
WALLACE KS-SHERMAN KS-
630 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SHERMAN AND NORTHEASTERN
WALLACE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

AT 630 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDSON
TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINONA TO NEAR SHARON SPRINGS...AND MOVING
NORTH AT 50 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GOODLAND...SHARON SPRINGS...EDSON AND RULETON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 IN KANSAS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 10 AND 33.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3886 10178 3937 10189 3951 10163 3948 10144
      3915 10139 3913 10141 3914 10148 3909 10148
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 176DEG 44KT 3919 10142 3915 10150 3898 10172

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
638 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

KSZ001-002-013-014-180130-
CHEYENNE KS-THOMAS KS-RAWLINS KS-SHERMAN KS-
638 PM MDT FRI APR 17 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN SHERMAN...
NORTHWESTERN THOMAS...SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM MDT/830 PM CDT/...

AT 638 PM MDT /738 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIRD CITY...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF
BREWSTER...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
SHERMAN...NORTHWESTERN THOMAS...SOUTHWESTERN RAWLINS AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHEYENNE COUNTIES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT/100 AM CDT/ FOR
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3950 10129 3950 10147 3967 10151 3969 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 175DEG 27KT 3958 10141

DR