Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE AND POP/SKY/WEATHER
GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
SO HARD TO FIND A DRY LINE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON...SO THINK STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT FAIRLY UNIFORMLY AT FIRST. IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
TORNADO THREAT IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS...STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY MERGE...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH EXPECT
EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCAPE DOES NOT GO
TO ZERO SO LEFT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DONE BY 06Z TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
STRONG...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. DONT
THINK WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CONSIDERABLY WITH SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

FIRST OFF...APOLOGIZE FOR THE BREVITY OF THIS DISCUSSION. ONGOING
SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS TAKE PRIORITY.

CALM WEATHER RETURNS BRIEFLY TO THE TRI-STATE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. FIRST...MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTHWEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THESE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THEREFORE...WENT WITH A
DRY FORECAST. ANOTHER CONCERN TO MONITOR IS COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST ADVERTISES MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S OVER EAST COLORADO AND LOW TO MID 30S
FOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

ACTIVE PATTERN RESUMES WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE AROUND THE LOW...BRINGING A CONTINUOUS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. UNSURE ON SEVERE AND FLOODING CHANCES BUT DO
FORESEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF FOG POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUSTS TO 40KTS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-192015-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
215 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 PM CDT...8 PM MDT. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
404 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

NEZ079-182230-
DUNDY NE-
404 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DUNDY COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM MDT...

AT 404 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11
MILES NORTH OF BENKELMAN...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAX.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4035 10133 4009 10133 4009 10157 4035 10161
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 177DEG 26KT 4022 10149

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
512 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

KSZ016-182230-
GRAHAM KS-
512 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL 530
PM CDT...

AT 512 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PALCO...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILL CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOGUE AND NICODEMUS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3913 9973 3957 9975 3957 9960 3913 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 176DEG 20KT 3924 9964

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NEZ080-182230-
HITCHCOCK NE-
516 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF CULBERTSON...OR 11 MILES EAST OF TRENTON...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CULBERTSON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4027 10076 4005 10076 4003 10083 4025 10103
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 152DEG 15KT 4012 10082

DR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
532 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

NEZ080-182300-
HITCHCOCK NE-
532 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 532 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
CULBERTSON...OR 8 MILES EAST OF TRENTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CULBERTSON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4027 10076 4013 10076 4012 10086 4027 10100
      4030 10077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 154DEG 14KT 4018 10085

DR