Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NOW IN A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 9 PM. LARGE HAIL...WINDS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE
MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOT ENCOMPASS AS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOWING SWRLY
FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW...WHICH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

MAIN CONCERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AS THAT LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TAKING
THE LOW ON A N/NE PATH THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
LARGER SCALE LIFT...SFC BOUNDARIES AND OTHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/SFC FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH E/SE...BUT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. LOT OF DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KGRI WHERE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071930-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
558 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ047-062-062330-
HALL NE-HOWARD NE-
558 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND
NORTHEASTERN HALL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 557 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ST. LIBORY...OR NEAR GRAND ISLAND...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.  FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRAND ISLAND AND ST. LIBORY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4112 9829 4105 9829 4105 9828 4100 9828
      4093 9831 4094 9853 4113 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 201DEG 16KT 4100 9840

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
609 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 PM     TORNADO          2 W CHESTER             40.01N 97.66W
05/06/2015                   THAYER             NE   STORM CHASER

            TORNADO REMAINS ON THE GROUND.

&&

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
612 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S PORTIS              39.54N 98.69W
05/06/2015  M3.03 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   MESONET

            STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AT GAUGE ALONG
            NORTH FORK SOLOMON RIVER

&&

PFANNKUCH

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     HEBRON AIRPORT          40.15N 97.59W
05/06/2015  M70 MPH          THAYER             NE   AWOS

&&

HALBLAUB