Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
239 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO
RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED...WITH ROUGHLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
NOW IN A TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 9 PM. LARGE HAIL...WINDS GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

EXPECT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER TO DIMINISH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT FOCUS OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY TOMORROW SHOULD BE
MORE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND NOT ENCOMPASS AS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WILL BE BRIEF DUE TO ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD SHOWING SWRLY
FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
HAS SHIFTED SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO SRN CALIFORNIA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ARE DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER LOW...WHICH BY SUNRISE SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION.

MAIN CONCERN INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL BE AS THAT LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST...EVENTUALLY ONTO THE PLAINS...WITH THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF TAKING
THE LOW ON A N/NE PATH THROUGH WRN NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY. INCREASED
LARGER SCALE LIFT...SFC BOUNDARIES AND OTHER PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT
SEVERE WEATHER. SUNDAY...THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/SFC FRONT LOOKS
TO PUSH E/SE...BUT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE CWA. LOT OF DETAILS YET TO WORK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35KTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KGRI WHERE THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO BOTH TERMINALS BY
DAYBREAK.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071930-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...SOME
OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
142 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ006-018-061915-
OSBORNE KS-SMITH KS-
142 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SMITH AND
NORTHEASTERN OSBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

AT 140 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
OSBORNE...OR 35 MILES WEST OF BELOIT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. THIS STORM HAS ALSO EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION...AND A
BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OSBORNE...PORTIS AND HARLAN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3939 9891 3971 9881 3967 9850 3966 9850
      3934 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 1840Z 201DEG 38KT 3944 9876

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
208 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ006-018-061945-
OSBORNE KS-SMITH KS-
208 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SMITH AND CENTRAL OSBORNE
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 206 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARLAN TO 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF NATOMA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. A STORM BETWEEN NATOMA AND OSBORNE HAS ALSO EXHIBITED
SOME WEAK ROTATION ON RADAR...AND FUNNEL CLOUD  DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SMITH CENTER...OSBORNE...LEBANON...PORTIS...HARLAN AND BELLAIRE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3922 9898 3994 9873 3991 9850 3976 9850
      3918 9873
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 193DEG 34KT 3964 9871 3926 9886

PFANNKUCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

NEZ074-075-084-085-061945-
FRANKLIN NE-KEARNEY NE-WEBSTER NE-ADAMS NE-
219 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNEY...
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER...SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS AND NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES NORTH OF RIVERTON...OR 32 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HASTINGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. SOME WEAK ROTATION IS ALSO POSSIBLE...AND BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMPBELL...BLADEN...ROSELAND...HOLSTEIN AND NORMAN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4010 9870 4013 9884 4048 9879 4047 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 190DEG 26KT 4019 9873

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
223 PM CDT WED MAY 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             3 E GAYLORD             39.65N 98.79W
05/06/2015  E0.88 INCH       SMITH              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
235 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

KSZ019-062000-
MITCHELL KS-
235 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM
OVER CENTRAL LINCOLN COUNTY...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. IF
THIS STORM MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY...IT COULD POSE
A TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
BETWEEN 300 PM AND 330 PM CDT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION IN SOUTHEAST MITCHELL COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3923 9819 3941 9816 3936 9793 3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 201DEG 31KT 3906 9813

PFANNKUCH